Playoff Recorded Record 43-24, Sat. X Pick/Write-Up!

Updated Playoff Recorded Record
43-24 (64%)

Sorry about the bad pick yesterday guys. I'm really kicking myself in the ass because when I started capping the game yesterday I was heavily leaning OKC. It wasn't till I finished my notes that I switched sides.

I'm not really upset about the loss though for 2 reasons...

The first: I have been on Mavs since the beginning of the playoffs and they have won me a lot of money. So 1 loss on them is completely acceptable and I'm still way up from them.
The Second: This game taught me everything I needed to know about this series and I will be a lot more confident in my plays from here on out.

My percentage dropped from 55% to 54% and its time to get it back up!

On to  the play!

Thunder -2

As bad as it sucked losing, Game 2 was filled was some awesome basket ball! OKC shook off their jitters and brought it! The Thunder started off a little sluggish and it almost looked like we were about to see the Mavs have another blow out victory. It wasnt until the Durantula got pissed and took the ball to the rim with one of the greatest dunks of all time that momentum completely changed. From then on, It was OKC that took over the game and it was purely because they demanded it. Im a huge believer in harder work / greater motivation will always out do talent.. and OKC was on a mission last night. Lets take a look at some of the details...

OKC shot an awesome 55%. As expected Kevin Durant led the Thunder to a 106-100 victory by scoring 24 points, 3 rebounds and 4 asssists. Durants sidekick, Russel Westbrook, actually stepped up his performance in game 2. During game 1 Westbrook shot terribly going only 3 for 15 from the field. Luckily for OKC, He found his game and drasticaly improved it by going 8 for 17. Whats weird though... is he went to the line 8 times and nailed 14 of 18 free throws in game 1. During game 2, he only went twice and hit 3 of 4. Now.. If he can just shoot like he did in game 2 but be as aggresive and get to the line like game 1... He would become a HUGE threat to the Mavs tomorrow night.

The real story of the night came from the Thunder's bench who scored a whopping 50 points! Considering Jason Terry from the Dallas bench outscored the OKC bench by himself in game 1, with 24 points.. You can see how HUGE of a difference they were in game 2 by more than doubling their production. The bench was led by the X factor himself, James Harden. Harden went 6 for 9 from field goal rand and 4 for 7 from three point range.. while also making 7 of 8 free throws, 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Despite having such magnificent number.. what made his performance so amazing was WHEN he did these things... It seemed like every time the Mavs started getting some momentum and about to take the lead again.. There was Harden..sinking a 3 (or 2 lol) and taking the momentum right back.

OKC was also able to substantially step up their defense in game 2. They were able to hold the Mavs to hitting only 42% of their field goals instead of the 53% in game 1. OKC has really built an amazing defense with Collison, Ibaka, Perkins, and Sefolosha. As good as they all were, it was Collison that really excelled. He scored 6 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and had 2 blocked shots. He has actually become one of my favorite defensive players.

These bench players played so well that coach Brooks actually kept them in for the entire 4th quarter. The only starter on the floor was Durant. I have heard a lot of people question him for this decision but I think it was the right one. The bench players wanted it more and had enormous energy. Why would he change was was working so well?

What made the difference in game 2 and why I am going with OKC in game 3.

After watching 2 full games, I'm seeing patterns that I see continuing.

In games 1, it was Dirk that made it so Dallas covered. He had an enormous night, scoring 48 points. As good as he is.. that night was an anomaly. His playoff average has been 28ppg and that's about the range we should expect from him tomorrow. OKC had no answer for him in game 1. In game 2 they rotated more players on him and actually held him to only 12 points during the first 3 quarters. The only reason he went off in the 4th was because OKC went with their smaller line-up. Im assuming coach brooks was fine with Dirk scoring with the amount of offense his line-up was producing.

Dirk will be Dirk and get his 28, Its the rest of the team that will get out played.

There are several match-ups that are really working in OKC's favor.

No one on the Mavs is fast enough to handle Westbrook. All OKC had to do was have Perkins set up a screen and with his speed Westbrook was easily able to get the space he needed to land shots. I see him doing this a lot in game three. The Mavs put Stevenson on him but he still shot 57%. Westbrook also shot 2 for 3 on Kidd.

Mavs CAN NOT put Stevenson on Durant anymore. I don't know why they do it and I'm sure they will do it again. Durant scored on 50% of the possessions he had while Stevenson was on him! Also, considering both games have been huge for Durant... I see him attacking even harder now that he will be at home. He is just to tall and too athletic for the older Mavs team. In my opinion he is the most versatile person on the floor. He can score any where he wants to.

JJ Barea has been played some great offense so far. The problem however is that he is incapable of defending. He keeps getting matched up with Harden or Maynor. Both have figured out how to use his size against him and been able to score very easily. His only defense is his acting and whether or not he can sell a flop to the ref. This is creating a huge problem for Dallas because JJ has really become an important part of their team. Now they have to decide.. is the offense worth probably the worse match-up in the game? Well.. we saw what happened yesterday..

Defense vs Defense. I don't even think I really need to get into this one. We are comparing Chandler, Marion, and Haywood to Collison, Ibaka, Perkins, and Sefolosha (for his perimeter defense). OKC's defenders are significantly quicker than the Mavs. Add this in with the fact that the Mavs scorers are so much older and slower and it once again works heavily in OKC's favor.

The last match up is just team vs team or should I say old vs young. The most noticeable flaw I saw with the Mavs in both games was how their energy level has been so much lower than OKC's. OKC constantly had a bounce to their step that the Mavs didnt. This created break away points and enables OKC to set up their defense a lot faster than the Mavs can establish their offense. Both teams really want this and will exert all of their energy to get it... But OKC's gas tank is MUCH bigger. Being at home tomorrow, OKC will push the pace the entire game and force Mavs into tiring out.

To conclude, Mavs age will show again tomorrow night. The young and hungry OKC team will have entirely too much energy for the Mavs to contain. The Thunder's quicker/superior defense will neutralize most of the Mavs scorers and OKC will take advantage of all of the bad match-ups. Dirk will get his 28 points but the rest of the team will not give enough to get the win or cover. I see Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Collison, Ibaka, and Perkins once again taking control of the game. Add in the fact that the Thunder tend to play significantly harder at home.. and this becomes an easy pick for me. Thunder-2 is the play here.

Alright everyone! I hope this helps. Let me know how you like it! The feedback lately has been great! and I look forward to more of it.

******I meant my percentage dropped from 65% to 64%************

not 55% to 54%

  GL buddy

Thanks man, you too!

GL BRO

Thanks JD!

GL, on OKC as well

Thanks CT!

Well... it likes like the end of the world didnt come! lol I guess tomorrows game is still on

Thx for the write up again but I've 2 things I want to say.......

1) No sry needed when u lost. We all know u tried v hard to make the right pick. No one will be perfect & there's no gambling god in covers

2) Tomorrow's gm will be another close one & hard to cap. Don't put too much pressure on yrself. Let's beat the books & make some money together 

I've no idea about the full gm yet. But I lean on the 1Q & 1H Okc now. I think they re a v gd home team and will come out with fire. 

BOL tomorrow CX  

Thanks Happy,

 You are entirely too nice. Yeah... I do tend to put a lot of pressure on myself. I don't even care about the loss to my bank roll when I post a bad pick. I only care about the loss others might have taken by tailing me.

I know I cant be perfect but I do have high standards for myself. I promised myself that if I posted my plays that I would take all the time necessary to cap the games the best I can. I figure as long as I'm doing that and hitting above 60%, everything is going pretty well.

Thanks for your post. It was really nice reading it. Take care Happyshine = )

BOL bro

Thx Fishsticks! You too

Goodnight everyone, see you tomorrow.

Got any picks for the totals?

BOL buddy. I hope you win this time otherwise it would be 3 straight losses to your write-ups.

Thanks man, I was unaware.... lol j/k

I really think this is important to say

 I have been doing this for a while in been consistently hitting above 60% for quite some time. I very may well lose tonight and maybe 4 nights after. The only thing I can do, Is my best. So far spending the time to study the game/stats and applying what ive learned to my capping system has been working for me. This is a long term gain system. There will be swings along the way.. but as long as I stick to what Ive been doing I will continue to make a proffit.

These write-ups were never intended for people to blindly tail them. They were meant to help you make your own picks. Look for things we agree on or things you might not have thought about. Then use that information along with your own to make your best pick possible. 

You will never see me say things like "no brainer lock*(sorry seaweed, no offense), or "got the call"(sorry sharp), or my favorite "Bomb of all bombs $35,000 play"(lol sorry Glock)... Because I am in no way claiming these are locks or for sure picks. They are just how I view the game and what I think has the highest probability of happening. What you do with the information after that is up to you.

I just figured that since my capping has worked for me so well I would share it with others. Take care everyone and I am sorry if i havent make this clear. I hope these help though.

Fantastic write-up Closer

Thanks man, It awesome hearing that you like it.

great write up... OKC 

Good read... appreciate the details.  I do think they can parlay momentum through tonight's home game. 

I also think the under finally hits as Dallas tries to get more physical and disrupt things.  Of course, that's assuming the refs don't go coo coo for cocoa puffs on the whistles again and turn it into a F/T contest....

BOL 

Very good information. Thank-You. However i am still taking the MAVS +2.5 and the OVER 200

Go for it man! If your feeling the Mavs, that by all means. My write-ups are not intended to differ you from your picks. Just putting the information/views out to help people while making their decision.

GL man