NBA BREAKDOWN Monday 04/11

Celtics @ Wizards OFF

Boston is playing 2^nd of a b2b but they are coming off a loss in this one.  They are playing their 4^th game in 5 nights.  Washing has already beaten the Celtics at home earlier this year so this team has the confidence to play with them.  Boston’s ‘effort’ would be a mystery in this one?  Do they concede HC in the 2^nd round and just rest starters or do they finish strong and hope for Miami to ‘slip up’?  I think Boston already packed it in and is just awaiting the playoffs.  The opening # will be very telling here.  The O/U’s:  194 O; 190 U; 193.5 U.  Hard to envision Boston playing much D here as they will be in a major ‘fatigue’ spot in this one.  Wizards don’t play any D, ever.  Leans:  PASS on the total and OVER.

Magic @ Sixers OFF

Knicks overtook Philly for the 6^th spot in the East and with the way Boston is playing right now, this is not a bad spot to be in.  Philly needs to win out and Knicks have to lose both of their last 2 games (vs CHI and @ BOS) in order to move back up.  Magic have nothing to play for here so I don’t see a big ‘effort’ from this squad.  Sixers are on ‘double-revenge’ in this one.  The O/U’s:  187 U; 199 U; 197 U.  The opening total will be very telling of where the bookmakers expect this one to go.  Leans:  Sixers and Wait-and-See.

Heat @ Hawks OFF

Heat are playing their 3^rd game in 4 nights here and are coming off a HUGE home win over Boston last night.  This team was terrific defensively and I’m not sure if they’ll sustain the same level of ‘effort’ against the slumping Hawks.  Atlanta isn’t playing for anything in this one, as Miami is fighting for a #2 seed.  I’m curious to see where the bookmakers bring this one out to.  O/U’s:  192 U; 194 U; 187.5 O.  Hawks aren’t playing much D lately and Miami won’t sustain the same ‘effort’ defensively like they did last night.  Leans:  Heat and OVER.

Bobcats @ Nets -2 O/U: 193.5

Two terrible teams with injuries to key players.  Both are playing their 3^rd game in 4 nights but I don’t see any ‘angle’ in this one.  If you want to play this game, ‘flip a coin’.  O/U’s:  187 U; 184.5 U; 187.5 U.  Obviously, the bookmakers aren’t expecting much D in this one, thus moving this total by a full 6 points from the previous contest.  I would agree with this.  Leans:  PASS on the side and OVER (slight).

Cavs @ Pistons -6.5 O/U: 208.5

3^rd game in 4 nights for Detroit, as Cleveland had a day off yesterday.  Pistons have won 4 in a row now and might have some ‘revenge’ on their minds after losing to Cleveland at home at the end of March.  Hard to go against the Cavs though, who are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and 5-3 ATS in their last 8.  O/U’s: 192.5 O; 195 O; 196.5 U.  Wow, this posted total is 12 points higher than the last meeting, which ended up going UNDER.  Very interesting.  Hmmm.  Leans:  Cavs and UNDER (pretty square lean here).

Raptors @ Bucks -8 O/U: 200

3^rd game in 4 nights for Toronto here, as Milwaukee is playing their last home-game of the season.  The Bucks are 3-0 SU and ATS against Toronto, so the Raptors have the ‘triple-revenge’ angle in this one.  Still, it’s hard to back this team when they’re coming off a win.  Injuries on both sides, so need to check who’s playing and who’s sitting here.  O/U’s:  192.5 O; 193 U; 192 O.  Another over-inflated total here as books are expecting a lackadaisical defensive effort from both of these squads.  Leans:  PASS on the side and PASS on the total.

Jazz @ Hornets -7 O/U: 193

3^rd game in 4 nights for New Orleans who have lost control of the #6 spot last night.  Now this team needs to win-out and Portland to lose one of their 2 games.  Jazz have actually covered 2 of their last 3 games and do have ‘double-revenge’ in this one.  O/U’s:  193 U; 192.5 U; 190.5 O.  I’m curious to see how much of an effort the Hornets will have on the defensive end tonight.  Jazz is a better team with Harris running the point and should be able to put up some points on the Hornets, who are in a ‘fatigue’ spot.  Leans:  Jazz and OVER.

Mavs @ Rockets OFF

Dallas now has the same record as the Lakers  and should be very focused on winning their last 2 games of the season in order to get that #2 spot (Lakers have the tie-breaker).  This will be Mavs’ 3^rd game in 4 nights while Houston was off yesterday.  Check the status of Lowry and Scola, since both missed Houston’s last game.  This is a ‘triple-revenge’ game for the Rockets and this team continues to compete, even though they have nothing to play for.  The opening # will be very interesting.  O/U’s:  198.5 U; 205 O; 206 O.  Both teams can score and neither is playing much D right now.  Leans:  Wait-and-See (most likely a PASS) on the side and OVER.

Warriors @ Nuggets -11 O/U: 220.5

B2B game for the Warriors, who have to travel into ‘elevation’ after yesterday’s home loss.  Ellis sustained a concussion in that one so he’s out for this game.  This line is OFF right now so it will be interesting to see where it will re-open at.  Remember, the ‘injured star angle’ could be a factor in this one, even though it’s hard to envision this undermanned Warriors squad running with the Nuggz for 48 minutes.  The O/U’s:  220 U and 222.5 O.  This one will probably open lower, with Ellis’ injury, but that could provide a bit of ‘value’ here.  Leans:  Nuggets and OVER.

Timberwolves @ Suns OFF

Minnesota has lost 13 straight and this team can’t wait to finish this season already.  Same can be said of the Suns who have really under-performed this year without Amare.  Phoenix is playing their 3^rd game in 4 nights here and Minnesota is on ‘double-revenge’ in this one.  Still, I’m not sure how the Wolves will compete without a number of ‘key’ players here.  The O/U’s:  223 O and 217 U.  This total will probably be somewhere in between.  Leans:  PASS on the side and PASS on the total.

Thunder @ Kings OFF

Big win for Okie City last night @ LAL, so is a slight let-down expected?  Possibly.  Both teams are playing their 3^rd games in 4 nights, while SacTown has ‘triple-revenge’ angle in this one.  The O/U’s:  202.5 U; 208.5 U; 208 O.  Since both teams are in a ‘fatigue’ spot, this total will be fairly high.  I do expect both teams to put up points in this one.  Leans:  Kings and OVER.

Cavs @ Pistons -6.5 O/U: 208.5

3^rd game in 4 nights for Detroit, as Cleveland had a day off yesterday.  Pistons have won 4 in a row now and might have some ‘revenge’ on their minds after losing to Cleveland at home at the end of March.  Hard to go against the Cavs though, who are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and 5-3 ATS in their last 8.  O/U’s: 192.5 O; 195 O; 196.5 U.  Wow, this posted total is 12 points higher than the last meeting, which ended up going UNDER.  Very interesting.  Hmmm.  Leans:  Cavs and UNDER (pretty square lean here).

Keep in mind that the Pistons just got their new owner and have been playing better.  Also, they cannot move up or down in the lottery.  They are "stuck" at 7th slot.  The Cavs are tied for the most ping-pong balls with Minnesota so a decent effort but a loss is likely.  Good luck

thanks dreams