You've been -- Thunderstruck!

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: You've been -- Thunderstruck!
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:09:18 PM
2010-2011 NBA Record:
130 - 88 @ 59% for +33.2 Units



Tue, 03/29

Oklahoma City Thunder -10


Okie City is beginning to look like a real contender in the West. (I have them at #3 based on my ratings, behind Lakers and Mavs. Yes, Spurs are #4) This team has size, 2 stud players, and most importantly this team is playing real DEFENSE, the kind of defense that championship teams are made of. For the season, Thunder is ranked #15 in Defensive Efficiency. Since Perkins came into the starting lineup on March 14th (7 games) this team has had a Defensive Efficiency rating of #6 in the league. They’ve allowed 91 ppg in that span and held opponents to 43% from the field (100.8 ppg and 46% season-long defensive stats), a huge improvement over their defensive full-season stats. On the other hand, Warriors are allowing 109.4 ppg to their opponents in their last 5. Their season average is 106.1 ppg allowed, thus this team is showing even less effort on the defensive end right now.

Yesterday, was when the Warriors were officially eliminated from playoff contention. Sure the players/coaches will say all the right things “Need to finish season on a positive note”, “Will continue to put forth max effort”, “We are professionals”, blah blah blah. Bottom line is that this team has quit long time ago, especially when playing on the road. In their last 8 road games, they are 1-7 SU and ATS. The lone win and cover came when they played the WORST team in the NBA, @ Cleveland. The average margin in those 7 losses: 14 ppg difference. And this includes games @ New Jersey (4 point loss) and @ Sacramento (10 point loss), two other teams at the bottom of the league. The other 5 were ‘quality’ opponents, and the margin of losses was -16.4 points on average in those games. Now the Warriors will face the 6th most efficient team offensively which is also playing top 6 Defense in their past 7 games.

Thunder has ‘revenge’ in this one, after losing in Oakland in the last meeting. This team is 18-10 ATS revenging a loss this season. What was interesting in regards to that last game was that the Warriors took 40 more shots (yes, it’s not a typo: 99 to 59), had 20 offensive rebounds to Thunder’s 2 (47 to 33 overall), 28 assists to Thunder’s 15, and forced Okie City into 20 turnovers while only committing 8 themselves. Now take a moment and think about this. By how many points do you think the Warriors beat them by? By 10? By 20? By 30? Nope. By 6 measly points! How is this possible? A 40-shot difference is the largest I’ve see all season long, and including the domination in the other 3 key statistical categories would have led me to believe that Warriors completely crushed the Thunder in this one. Not so. The game was actually very close throughout, with Okie City losing by only two 3PT baskets in the end. How did this happen? Well, first of all Thunder shot 53% from the field to Warriors’ 43%. Second of all, 28 to 9 FTA discrepancy (Thunder is #1 team in getting to the FT line while GSW are #29 defensively in this category). With defensive liabilities in their starting lineup, Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green, Okie City kept the game close and allowed only 43% from the field, on Warriors’ own home-court. What’s going to happen tonight, when Perkins and Ibaka are anchoring this Thunder front-line? I don’t believe we’ll see the Warriors dominating most of these major statistical categories in this one. Regression to the mean at its finest!

Warriors are coming off a big 10 point home win against the Wizards. This season though, this team is 2-9 ATS when coming off a big win like this. In addition, they are only 2-6 ATS as a road-dog in this spread-range (Thunder are 3-2 ATS as home favorite in this spread range). GSW are missing Biedrins for this one, and even though he is very soft, at least he was another big body. I see Thunder controlling the boards, getting to the FT line with ease, and just completely dominating this Warriors team that is 9-28 on the road this season (17-20 ATS). Okie City wins this one by 15+ tonight.

Good luck!

_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730


"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."


K4ngur13 PM K4ngur13
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:09:38 PM
gooD lUcK
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:12:20 PM
This has blowout written all over it
iNeedSomePicks PM iNeedSomePicks
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:16:48 PM
good write up bro
PropKing82 PM PropKing82
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:19:52 PM
As always thank you bodio, feels like another winning day! Good luck pal!
glenndef62 PM glenndef62
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:20:36 PM

My only bet of the night.

Excellent writing.

LetEMride PM LetEMride
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:25:07 PM
I think OKC wins this game easily as well. But I do think that the blow out happens in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:26:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

This has blowout written all over it

Agree

bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:27:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LetEMride:

I think OKC wins this game easily as well. But I do think that the blow out happens in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

doesn't matter when for me.  As long as it happens :)

SonnyC78 PM SonnyC78
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:27:45 PM
Bodio.  You have any opinion on Alabama tonight?
Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:29:13 PM
boom
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:35:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PropKing82:

As always thank you bodio, feels like another winning day! Good luck pal!

sure hope so.  GL

ionutt79 PM ionutt79
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:36:21 PM
very good speach

BOL Bodio
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:36:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glenndef62:

My only bet of the night.

Excellent writing.

Mine too.  GL

bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:40:22 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SonnyC78:

Bodio.  You have any opinion on Alabama tonight?

No I do not. 

JMon PM JMon
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:40:23 PM

"controlling the boards, getting to the FT line with ease"

Now that is an understatement. I spotted these two mismatches right off the bat when I first viewed the match up.

Bol VB

 

bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:41:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ionutt79:

very good speach

BOL Bodio

Speech eh?  Don't remember me saying anything but I've sure been typing away  :)

bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:41:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Professional1:

boom

...goes the DYNAMITE!

colonelreb7 PM colonelreb7
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:42:29 PM
Really like the thunder play for today.  Loved the Pacers play last night .  I really like the suns also for tonight. I know the kings have been hot lately but the suns have a lot of heart and they proved that in the 3OT loss to the lakers.  I see some good value on the suns tonight.  Any thoughts?
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 1:42:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMon:

"controlling the boards, getting to the FT line with ease"

Now that is an understatement. I spotted these two mismatches right off the bat when I first viewed the match up.

Bol VB

 

Good luck brutha

matangster PM matangster
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Posted: 3/29/2011 2:02:12 PM
PurduePride2206 PM PurduePride2206
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Posted: 3/29/2011 2:03:58 PM
GL bodio
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 3/29/2011 2:04:10 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by colonelreb7:

Really like the thunder play for today.  Loved the Pacers play last night .  I really like the suns also for tonight. I know the kings have been hot lately but the suns have a lot of heart and they proved that in the 3OT loss to the lakers.  I see some good value on the suns tonight.  Any thoughts?

thoughts are listed here:  http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101019065

Not sure if there is much value with the Suns.  The line is pretty much right on.  A team that isn't playing much D lately, and have lost 2 in a row at home to playoff teams does not qualify as 'having heart' in my book.  Kings are on fire, and are tough to fade right now.

Good luck

Islandstyle PM Islandstyle
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Posted: 3/29/2011 2:07:08 PM

Good luck tonight Bodio!

 

kingz PM kingz
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Posted: 3/29/2011 2:10:23 PM

Thanks bodio...... I Feel the thunder in the air!!!!!  

 

okc -10 lets get it baby!!!!!

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