Posted: 3/29/2011 1:09:18 PM
2010-2011 NBA Record:
130 - 88 @ 59% for +33.2 Units
Oklahoma City Thunder -10
Okie City is beginning to look like a real contender in the West. (I have them at #3 based on my ratings, behind Lakers and Mavs. Yes, Spurs are #4) This team has size, 2 stud players, and most importantly this team is playing real DEFENSE, the kind of defense that championship teams are made of. For the season, Thunder is ranked #15 in Defensive Efficiency. Since Perkins came into the starting lineup on March 14th (7 games) this team has had a Defensive Efficiency rating of #6 in the league. They’ve allowed 91 ppg in that span and held opponents to 43% from the field (100.8 ppg and 46% season-long defensive stats), a huge improvement over their defensive full-season stats. On the other hand, Warriors are allowing 109.4 ppg to their opponents in their last 5. Their season average is 106.1 ppg allowed, thus this team is showing even less effort on the defensive end right now.
Yesterday, was when the Warriors were officially eliminated from playoff contention. Sure the players/coaches will say all the right things “Need to finish season on a positive note”, “Will continue to put forth max effort”, “We are professionals”, blah blah blah. Bottom line is that this team has quit long time ago, especially when playing on the road. In their last 8 road games, they are 1-7 SU and ATS. The lone win and cover came when they played the WORST team in the NBA, @ Cleveland. The average margin in those 7 losses: 14 ppg difference. And this includes games @ New Jersey (4 point loss) and @ Sacramento (10 point loss), two other teams at the bottom of the league. The other 5 were ‘quality’ opponents, and the margin of losses was -16.4 points on average in those games. Now the Warriors will face the 6th most efficient team offensively which is also playing top 6 Defense in their past 7 games.
Thunder has ‘revenge’ in this one, after losing in Oakland in the last meeting. This team is 18-10 ATS revenging a loss this season. What was interesting in regards to that last game was that the Warriors took 40 more shots (yes, it’s not a typo: 99 to 59), had 20 offensive rebounds to Thunder’s 2 (47 to 33 overall), 28 assists to Thunder’s 15, and forced Okie City into 20 turnovers while only committing 8 themselves. Now take a moment and think about this. By how many points do you think the Warriors beat them by? By 10? By 20? By 30? Nope. By 6 measly points! How is this possible? A 40-shot difference is the largest I’ve see all season long, and including the domination in the other 3 key statistical categories would have led me to believe that Warriors completely crushed the Thunder in this one. Not so. The game was actually very close throughout, with Okie City losing by only two 3PT baskets in the end. How did this happen? Well, first of all Thunder shot 53% from the field to Warriors’ 43%. Second of all, 28 to 9 FTA discrepancy (Thunder is #1 team in getting to the FT line while GSW are #29 defensively in this category). With defensive liabilities in their starting lineup, Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green, Okie City kept the game close and allowed only 43% from the field, on Warriors’ own home-court. What’s going to happen tonight, when Perkins and Ibaka are anchoring this Thunder front-line? I don’t believe we’ll see the Warriors dominating most of these major statistical categories in this one. Regression to the mean at its finest!
Warriors are coming off a big 10 point home win against the Wizards. This season though, this team is 2-9 ATS when coming off a big win like this. In addition, they are only 2-6 ATS as a road-dog in this spread-range (Thunder are 3-2 ATS as home favorite in this spread range). GSW are missing Biedrins for this one, and even though he is very soft, at least he was another big body. I see Thunder controlling the boards, getting to the FT line with ease, and just completely dominating this Warriors team that is 9-28 on the road this season (17-20 ATS). Okie City wins this one by 15+ tonight.
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."