NBA BREAKDOWN Sat 03/26 (6 games)

Knicks @ Bobcats +3.5 O/U: 199.5

Both teams are playing their 2nd game of a b2b, and 3rd in 4 nights.  Both teams are sliding, as NY lost 5 in a row and 7 of 8, while the ‘Cats snapped a 4 game losing streak with a 4th quarter comeback (outscored Boston by 15 in that one) last night.  The effort by the ‘Cats I that one can’t be discounted.  Most people will look to back NY again (the public is getting killed with this team by the way) waiting and expecting for the Knicks to ‘snap out of it’ but the Bobcats are 5-1 ATS this year as home-dogs in this spread-range.  In the 2 games this year (they played a b2b home/away series in November) the Knicks won both, by 3 and by 4 points (close games).  ‘Cats are expected to be without S-Jax again but they played well without him yesterday.  The O/U’s in the first 2 meetings were: 204.5 (O) and 205.5 (U).  These teams are significantly different from November of course, and the injuries are keeping this one a bit lower than I would have expected.  Knicks play no D, and in a ‘fatigue’ spot I expect even less of an effort out of them defensively.  Leans:  Bobcats and OVER.

Nets @ Hawks -10 O/U: 185.5

Neither team is playing good ‘ball’ right now, with each losing 4 of their last 5.  We know that Atlanta is terrible against quality opponents, but Nets are as far from quality as one could get, especially without D-Will.  Atlanta isn’t playing any defense right now, giving up 100+ points in 4 of those 5 games (96 in the other one) and teams that don’t play any D are hard to back usually.  The Nets are playing 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights, while the Hawks had 2 days off before this one.  On the season the Nets have a 2-1 edge as each team won on their own home-court, so technically Hawks have revenge in this one.  The O/U’s were:  190.5 (O); 185.5 (O) – game in ATL; 183 (U).  Today’s total is the same as it was in the first game in Atlanta.  With the way the Hawks are playing D right now, the Over could be considered here.  Leans:  Hawks and OVER.

Pacers @ Pistons -2.5 O/U: 203.5

Very strange line-move here.  This one opened at PK but shot up to -2.5 / -3 Pistons.  Why is it strange?  Well, Pacers are the ones fighting for a playoff spot and the Pistons don’t have anything to play for.  I haven’t noticed any injuries for Indiana, so this line-move is a bit puzzling.  Just based on that, one has to look at Detroit a bit closer.  In any case, both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and both are coming off some horrible losses last night.  Pacers lost to the Kings at home, while Detroit got beat by the Cavs on the road.  The 2 meetings this season were very close as Detroit won the 1st one in OT, while the Pacers took the 2nd one by 1 point on their own home court.  In the previous 2 games Pacers were -8 point favs at home (SA: -2 on the road) and -1.5 point favs on the road.  The fact that they’re +2.5 today is even more puzzling.  What am I missing here? Even so, the Pacers are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in games against the Pistons.  Maybe it really is this easy sometimes. Hmmm.  The O/U’s were:  200.5 (O) and 203.5 (U).  Both teams are in ‘fatigue’ spot, so not sure if either will have the legs to play D.  Leans:  Pacers (need to figure out this line move) and OVER.

Bulls @ Bucks +5.5 O/U: 178

Bucks are playing this one on ‘triple-revenge’ as the Bulls are on a b2b after a tough victory the night before.  For some reason this one feels very similar to the Bulls @ Pacers game on the 18th, when Indiana had ‘triple-revenge’ in that one also.  The Bucks are actually playing on a b2b as well, and it’s their 3rd game in 4 nights.  Even so, this team is still in the race for the playoffs, as the Pacers lost a winnable game last night.  I expect Bucks’ best effort in this one.  One has to wonder the Bulls’ mental status after finding out that they have a 2-game lead in the East now.  Hmm…  All 3 games so far this season went UNDER as the totals fluctuated between 177.5 and 181.5 this season.  Both teams are capable of playing very strong D, but being in ‘fatigue’ spot I wonder if the players have the ‘legs’ for max effort here.  Could I see both scoring in the low 90’s?  Yeah, I do.  Leans:  Bucks and OVER.

Mavs @ Jazz +6 O/U: 202.5

Another ‘triple-revenge’ angle here as Mavs are 3-0 both SU and ATS against Utah this year.  Devin Harris and Kirilenko are both listed as questionable for this one, and Utah will need both to matchup with this deep and talented Dallas squad.  This is a start of a 6-game road-trip for Dallas, so you expect them to come out strong tonight.  Jazz are coming off that demoralizing home loss to the Hornets, when the game went to OT on a very improbable last second shot by Okafor.  How will their players respond tonight?  Even though this team is 2-4 SU in their last 6, they are 4-1-1 ATS in that span, indicating that this team is playing with solid effort right now.  Still, one can’t overlook the fact that they’re playing the some terrible D right now, giving up 109 ppg in the past 5 games.  Getting 6 points at home in this spot is a few too many though and I liked the effort from the Jazz players in the last game.  The O/U’s were:  193.5 (U); 194.5 (O); 197 (O).  This posted total is the highest this season, and I’m wondering if the bookies are tipping their hand in this one.  Leans:  Jazz and OVER.

Raptors @ Clippers -10.5 O/U: 212

Did anyone ever think that there will be a day when Clippers are laying DD’s points at home?  This is the 3rd  time in the last 4 home games that this has happened.  Not surprisingly, the Clippers didn’t cover any one of those astronomical spreads, (2-0 SU though) so why will they tonight?  Well, they have a ‘revenge’ angle in this one after losing to Toronto on the road earlier this year as -2.5 point favorites (-8.5 at home with SA).  In addition, this is Raptors’ last game of a 5-game road trip as they’re playing 2nd of a b2b, 3rd in 4 nights, and 5th in 7.  This is truly a very tough ‘fatigue’ spot for them.  In addition, Toronto is dealing with a ton of injuries to their players, and you could add their starting PG Calderon to that list, as he was forced to leave yesterday’s blow-out loss with an injury.  Clippers are also playing 2nd of a b2b and 3rd in 4 nights, but this team has been at home since the 14th, so it’s not as difficult of a scheduling spot.  Also, keep in mind that EG didn’t play in that first game between the 2 teams.  He’s been fairly inconsistent since coming back, but against a Raptors squad that doesn’t play any D, he could easily put up 30+ in this one.  The O/U was 208 in the last meeting.  This one is 2 buckets higher, but I agree with this line.  I think this will be a high scoring affair, as both teams should put up some points.  Leans:  Clipper and the OVER.

Yes I do.  Love baseball

haha...Assistant King Z!  :)

yes, working CBB right now.  I'll finalize my NBA plays later in the day as I want to take a step back, and take a look at each matchup again later.

2 college games tonight, so time to break this shizzy down!!!

B-Cats

CHI/MIL OVER

gl!