Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
118 - 82 @ 59% for +27.8 Units
Tue, 03/22
#1: Chicago Bulls -3.5
I know the Bulls are playing in a b2b scenario here but yesterday's game was an easy home blow-out, where most starters played 28 minutes or less. (Deng played 33). The Hawks are coming into this one off a win versus Detroit, but they are only 3-6 ATS in their last 9, while Chicago is rolling, going 7-2 ATS in the same time-frame. This wager comes down to 3 things for me:
#1: Bulls are 19-8 (70%) ATS against teams with a winning records this year, while Atlanta is only 10-19 ATS (34%) in the same scenario. Sometimes it's really as simple as that, since Atlanta just does NOT play well against quality opponents.
#2: Chicago is 1-1 against Atlanta this year, but it easily could have been 2-0. In that first game on the road in Atlanta, the Bulls had a 19 point lead, which they squandered and lost by 3. Atlanta outscored the Bulls 50-30 in the 2nd half, Hortford tied his career high with 31 points in that one, and Bulls barely shot 41% from the field. That's a lot of things that went 'right' for Atlanta in that game. Still, the Bulls outrebounded the Hawks 43-37. The 2nd game was very different as the Bulls dominated Atlanta and won 94-76, again outrebounding the Hawks 50-28. I expect 'rebounding' to be a big difference tonight, and the fact that Bulls have Booze and Taj back for this one, will make a big difference.
#3: Motivation. Bottom line, Chicago is playing for something (#1 seed), while the Hawks are pretty much set in the #5 spot. Will the Hawks want to win this game? Of course, any team would. But I can guarantee they will get the Bulls squad that will give it their all in this one. I expect the Bulls to play hard tonight, and this will make it very difficult for the Hawks to beat them.
Chicago is 20-14 ATS on the road this year, while the Hawks are only 13-22 ATS at home. I don't see this motivated Bulls squad losing to Atlanta again, even on the road. I expect a comfortable DD win for Chicago in this one.
#2: Portland Trailblazers OFF
This line is OFF right now but I expect it to be around -13/-14 in the morning. I will take the Blazers are that number. Washington is coming off a big win as an underdog vs New Jersey. This team is 0-7 ATS off an upset win as a dog this year and 7-30 ATS in the last couple of years. Having to travel from Washington to Portland is another factor here that favors the Blazers. Bottom line, I expect this to be a big 'let-down' game for the Wizards, similar to the Raptors last night, after their big win @ Okie City. I know Washington beating the Nets does not really qualify as a 'big' win, but when you're a team that lost 13 of your last 14 games, ANY win is 'BIG'.
In any case, Blazers are coming into this game off a loss of their own, in LA. They had a chance to win at the end but just couldn't execute in the 4th. I expect them to get some 'revenge' tonight. Speaking of 'revenge', the Wizards actually beat Portland in the first meeting, early in the season. I expect McMillan to remind the players about that, to ensure that they don't take this game lightly. The Blazers have a lot of depth, size, and are actually playing for the playoffs. They will be more motivated in this game, and I expect them to get a comfortable 20+ win in this one.
Good luck!
118 - 82 @ 59% for +27.8 Units
Tue, 03/22
#1: Chicago Bulls -3.5
I know the Bulls are playing in a b2b scenario here but yesterday's game was an easy home blow-out, where most starters played 28 minutes or less. (Deng played 33). The Hawks are coming into this one off a win versus Detroit, but they are only 3-6 ATS in their last 9, while Chicago is rolling, going 7-2 ATS in the same time-frame. This wager comes down to 3 things for me:
#1: Bulls are 19-8 (70%) ATS against teams with a winning records this year, while Atlanta is only 10-19 ATS (34%) in the same scenario. Sometimes it's really as simple as that, since Atlanta just does NOT play well against quality opponents.
#2: Chicago is 1-1 against Atlanta this year, but it easily could have been 2-0. In that first game on the road in Atlanta, the Bulls had a 19 point lead, which they squandered and lost by 3. Atlanta outscored the Bulls 50-30 in the 2nd half, Hortford tied his career high with 31 points in that one, and Bulls barely shot 41% from the field. That's a lot of things that went 'right' for Atlanta in that game. Still, the Bulls outrebounded the Hawks 43-37. The 2nd game was very different as the Bulls dominated Atlanta and won 94-76, again outrebounding the Hawks 50-28. I expect 'rebounding' to be a big difference tonight, and the fact that Bulls have Booze and Taj back for this one, will make a big difference.
#3: Motivation. Bottom line, Chicago is playing for something (#1 seed), while the Hawks are pretty much set in the #5 spot. Will the Hawks want to win this game? Of course, any team would. But I can guarantee they will get the Bulls squad that will give it their all in this one. I expect the Bulls to play hard tonight, and this will make it very difficult for the Hawks to beat them.
Chicago is 20-14 ATS on the road this year, while the Hawks are only 13-22 ATS at home. I don't see this motivated Bulls squad losing to Atlanta again, even on the road. I expect a comfortable DD win for Chicago in this one.
#2: Portland Trailblazers OFF
This line is OFF right now but I expect it to be around -13/-14 in the morning. I will take the Blazers are that number. Washington is coming off a big win as an underdog vs New Jersey. This team is 0-7 ATS off an upset win as a dog this year and 7-30 ATS in the last couple of years. Having to travel from Washington to Portland is another factor here that favors the Blazers. Bottom line, I expect this to be a big 'let-down' game for the Wizards, similar to the Raptors last night, after their big win @ Okie City. I know Washington beating the Nets does not really qualify as a 'big' win, but when you're a team that lost 13 of your last 14 games, ANY win is 'BIG'.
In any case, Blazers are coming into this game off a loss of their own, in LA. They had a chance to win at the end but just couldn't execute in the 4th. I expect them to get some 'revenge' tonight. Speaking of 'revenge', the Wizards actually beat Portland in the first meeting, early in the season. I expect McMillan to remind the players about that, to ensure that they don't take this game lightly. The Blazers have a lot of depth, size, and are actually playing for the playoffs. They will be more motivated in this game, and I expect them to get a comfortable 20+ win in this one.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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