Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
90 - 66 @ 58% for +17.4 Units
Tue, 03/01
#1: Memphis Grizzlies -1
I think it’s going to become pretty obvious that ‘REVENGE’ will be a recurring theme in today’s write-ups. Memphis is actually on double-revenge in this one, having lost both games @ San Antonio this year. The last one was only a couple days ago, where the Spurs needed 36 points in the 4th quarter to get a 7 point win. Two things stood out in that game for me: Grizz shooting 37% from the field, while still being in the game till the end and 17 to 6 offensive rebounding discrepancy in favor of Memphis. Zach Randolph only shot 7 for 25 (28%) in that one but he did have 10 offensive boards. Randolph shoots 50% from the field at home, compared to 48% on the road for the season, and I expect him to play much better tonight. In that first game against the Spurs, Randolph shot 48% from the field and also had 10 offensive rebounds. Hmmm.. That’s what I call consistency on the offensive glass. (16 to 9 advantage for Grizz in that one as well). What’s going to stop Randolph from getting 10 offensive rebounds tonight? Well, I think improved Memphis shooting will be the only thing. In addition, Tony Parker was sensational in that first game, going 15 for 21 from the field with 37 points and 9 assists. He obviously got injured early in the 2nd game but the Spurs rallied without him and won the game anyways. Well, in tonight’s contest things will be very different. Parker’s injury, destroys Spurs’ depth, as they’ll have a Bonner and McDyess (big bodies but really not much production there), along with rookies Neal (coming off concussion) and Anderson coming off the bench. Grizzlies, on the other hand, have Battier, Mayo, and Arthur on their bench. To me this will be a big difference as Spurs are an older team. Without Parker, I also expect them to have more turnovers on offense, especially since they’re facing the best team at causing them on a defensive end. Finally, I’ve talked in detail about the fact that Spurs have struggled on the road against teams that play defense at home. Well, Grizzlies allow 97 ppg at home, 15th best. In their last 5 home games though, this team has only allowed 94 ppg. They have the 8th best defensive rating in the league and I expect the Grizz to play tough defensively tonight. Some will point out that Spurs are under-valued here tonight. A few days ago they were -9 point home favorites against these same Grizzlies so with ‘standard adjustments’ you’d expect them to be -3 road favs here tonight. Well, you have to account for Parker’s injury but I don’t think he’s worth a full 4 points. Obviously, the bookies are telling us that Grizzlies have an excellent chance of winning this game, so they’ve added a few extra points to this line. Remember, the books could care less in regards to what the ‘public’ does. They’re concerned with the shapr/BIG money. 70%+ of all the bets were going to be on the Spurs regardless of the line, so why over-value the Grizz? Hmmm…. In any case, Memphis are 23-10 ATS revenging a loss this year, 23-10 ATS versus teams averaging 100+ ppg this season (this team plays solid defense!), 20-8 SU at home, 11-3 ATS in the last 14 against teams with .600+ winning percentage, and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 as a short home favorite. I really like them tonight.
#2: Indiana Pacers -5.5
The Pacers lose 2 games and everyone jumps off their bandwagon? Why the hell is the ‘public’ backing this crappy Warriors team on the road? I don’t get it. In any case, the Pacers’ loss to Utah came after a tough 1 point win against Detroit, in a ‘revenge’ spot. Then they dropped an OT game to a really good Suns squad, a team that IMO will make the playoffs when it’s all ‘said and done’. Nothing to be ashamed of here. So is this the time to ‘jump off the Pacers bandwagon’? No not yet. But I’m ‘jumping off’ after tonight’s game. Pacers are playing 10 of their next 13 on the road, and with games against Okie St, Philly, Houston, Knicks (2 times), Boston, Bulls, Memphis the ‘fade’ is ON. Just not yet. Tonight, they face a Warriors squad that is 7-19 on the road this season (27%). Pacers are 5-3 at home their last 8 games, including the last 2 losses. They have NOT lost 3 straight home games all season long. From my perspective, there is a really big chance that Pacers will win tonight’s game. So all the bettors that are taking GSW +5.5 are hoping for the Warriors to lose by 5 points or less eh? Warriors only played 3 road games out of the last 15, going 1-2 in those. They won @ Utah (no surprise as Utah is spiraling) and lost @ Phoenix and @ Timbo’s in their last game. This team is 2-6 ATS off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS versus the Eastern Conference. At the same time they are only 4-13 ATS in the last 17 against the Pacers and 1-8 ATS in the last 9 in Indiana. Hmm… The Pacers lost the first meeting between the 2 teams, when they were in a middle of their 6 game losing streak that led to O’Brian getting fired. What stuck-out about that game were the 15 to 7 discrepancy in offensive boards and 49 to 35 rebounding advantage overall in favor of the Pacers. Keep in mind that Hibbert did not play in that contest. With a healthy Hibbert, this rebounding discrepancy should even be larger tonight. Both Lee and Biedrins are soft as heck, and I see the front-court of Hibbert, Hansbrough, McRoberts, and Foster controlling the paint on both sides of the court. The Warriors are only shooting 41% from the field in their last 3 games. Most of their possessions will result in ‘one and done’ here tonight. Pacers are in 8th spot in the East and are going on the road after tonight. This is a very winnable game, and I expect this team to play hard, dominate the glass, and get their ‘revenge’.
90 - 66 @ 58% for +17.4 Units
Tue, 03/01
#1: Memphis Grizzlies -1
I think it’s going to become pretty obvious that ‘REVENGE’ will be a recurring theme in today’s write-ups. Memphis is actually on double-revenge in this one, having lost both games @ San Antonio this year. The last one was only a couple days ago, where the Spurs needed 36 points in the 4th quarter to get a 7 point win. Two things stood out in that game for me: Grizz shooting 37% from the field, while still being in the game till the end and 17 to 6 offensive rebounding discrepancy in favor of Memphis. Zach Randolph only shot 7 for 25 (28%) in that one but he did have 10 offensive boards. Randolph shoots 50% from the field at home, compared to 48% on the road for the season, and I expect him to play much better tonight. In that first game against the Spurs, Randolph shot 48% from the field and also had 10 offensive rebounds. Hmmm.. That’s what I call consistency on the offensive glass. (16 to 9 advantage for Grizz in that one as well). What’s going to stop Randolph from getting 10 offensive rebounds tonight? Well, I think improved Memphis shooting will be the only thing. In addition, Tony Parker was sensational in that first game, going 15 for 21 from the field with 37 points and 9 assists. He obviously got injured early in the 2nd game but the Spurs rallied without him and won the game anyways. Well, in tonight’s contest things will be very different. Parker’s injury, destroys Spurs’ depth, as they’ll have a Bonner and McDyess (big bodies but really not much production there), along with rookies Neal (coming off concussion) and Anderson coming off the bench. Grizzlies, on the other hand, have Battier, Mayo, and Arthur on their bench. To me this will be a big difference as Spurs are an older team. Without Parker, I also expect them to have more turnovers on offense, especially since they’re facing the best team at causing them on a defensive end. Finally, I’ve talked in detail about the fact that Spurs have struggled on the road against teams that play defense at home. Well, Grizzlies allow 97 ppg at home, 15th best. In their last 5 home games though, this team has only allowed 94 ppg. They have the 8th best defensive rating in the league and I expect the Grizz to play tough defensively tonight. Some will point out that Spurs are under-valued here tonight. A few days ago they were -9 point home favorites against these same Grizzlies so with ‘standard adjustments’ you’d expect them to be -3 road favs here tonight. Well, you have to account for Parker’s injury but I don’t think he’s worth a full 4 points. Obviously, the bookies are telling us that Grizzlies have an excellent chance of winning this game, so they’ve added a few extra points to this line. Remember, the books could care less in regards to what the ‘public’ does. They’re concerned with the shapr/BIG money. 70%+ of all the bets were going to be on the Spurs regardless of the line, so why over-value the Grizz? Hmmm…. In any case, Memphis are 23-10 ATS revenging a loss this year, 23-10 ATS versus teams averaging 100+ ppg this season (this team plays solid defense!), 20-8 SU at home, 11-3 ATS in the last 14 against teams with .600+ winning percentage, and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 as a short home favorite. I really like them tonight.
#2: Indiana Pacers -5.5
The Pacers lose 2 games and everyone jumps off their bandwagon? Why the hell is the ‘public’ backing this crappy Warriors team on the road? I don’t get it. In any case, the Pacers’ loss to Utah came after a tough 1 point win against Detroit, in a ‘revenge’ spot. Then they dropped an OT game to a really good Suns squad, a team that IMO will make the playoffs when it’s all ‘said and done’. Nothing to be ashamed of here. So is this the time to ‘jump off the Pacers bandwagon’? No not yet. But I’m ‘jumping off’ after tonight’s game. Pacers are playing 10 of their next 13 on the road, and with games against Okie St, Philly, Houston, Knicks (2 times), Boston, Bulls, Memphis the ‘fade’ is ON. Just not yet. Tonight, they face a Warriors squad that is 7-19 on the road this season (27%). Pacers are 5-3 at home their last 8 games, including the last 2 losses. They have NOT lost 3 straight home games all season long. From my perspective, there is a really big chance that Pacers will win tonight’s game. So all the bettors that are taking GSW +5.5 are hoping for the Warriors to lose by 5 points or less eh? Warriors only played 3 road games out of the last 15, going 1-2 in those. They won @ Utah (no surprise as Utah is spiraling) and lost @ Phoenix and @ Timbo’s in their last game. This team is 2-6 ATS off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS versus the Eastern Conference. At the same time they are only 4-13 ATS in the last 17 against the Pacers and 1-8 ATS in the last 9 in Indiana. Hmm… The Pacers lost the first meeting between the 2 teams, when they were in a middle of their 6 game losing streak that led to O’Brian getting fired. What stuck-out about that game were the 15 to 7 discrepancy in offensive boards and 49 to 35 rebounding advantage overall in favor of the Pacers. Keep in mind that Hibbert did not play in that contest. With a healthy Hibbert, this rebounding discrepancy should even be larger tonight. Both Lee and Biedrins are soft as heck, and I see the front-court of Hibbert, Hansbrough, McRoberts, and Foster controlling the paint on both sides of the court. The Warriors are only shooting 41% from the field in their last 3 games. Most of their possessions will result in ‘one and done’ here tonight. Pacers are in 8th spot in the East and are going on the road after tonight. This is a very winnable game, and I expect this team to play hard, dominate the glass, and get their ‘revenge’.
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