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You can't win in the NBA without star players. You need a guy or two who can carry your offense at times and get to the free throw line when your offense is. So how do you bet a team when its missing its best player?
We’ve got a piece in the No. 1 today about which players are worth the most to the line and some people are questioning whether these ballers are worth as much as our panel says.
It’s a fair question and something I find pretty interesting. I’ve talked to oddsmakers and cappers a bunch of times about this topic and I always learn something new.
Here are two things to keep in mind:
Oddsmakers set these lines with the public in mind. I know, I know. Not breaking any news here but sometimes we forget how much public perception plays into the art of making a line. If the majority of people jump at the chance to fade the Lakers when Kobe Bryant’s not playing, the bookies have to alter the line to the point that backing the Kobe-less Lakers becomes more attractive.
Another thing you want to watch for whenever a star player goes down is how that team plays in the first game or two. A couple different oddsmakers have told me that teams missing their best players will rally in the first instance or so and overachieve. Over time the void begins to be felt and those teams really start to struggle.
Best example of this is the Cleveland Cavaliers with and without LeBron James.
Many expected the Cavaliers to really struggle at the start of the season with LeBron’s talents in South Beach rather than Cleveland. But the Cavs went 5-5 SU and ATS in their first five games. Eventually they played to their level and now the worst team in the Association and one of the league’s worst bets (21-33-2 ATS).
It was the same thing for the Celtics when Kevin Garnett hurt his knee the year after the championship win. The C’s went 2-0 ATS in their first two games without KG but 1-10 in their next 11.
Teams can rally and overachieve for a game or two, but after a while those same teams will get exposed.
I’d love hear any thoughts you guys have on betting NBA games with star players sitting out.
We’ve got a piece in the No. 1 today about which players are worth the most to the line and some people are questioning whether these ballers are worth as much as our panel says.
It’s a fair question and something I find pretty interesting. I’ve talked to oddsmakers and cappers a bunch of times about this topic and I always learn something new.
Here are two things to keep in mind:
Oddsmakers set these lines with the public in mind. I know, I know. Not breaking any news here but sometimes we forget how much public perception plays into the art of making a line. If the majority of people jump at the chance to fade the Lakers when Kobe Bryant’s not playing, the bookies have to alter the line to the point that backing the Kobe-less Lakers becomes more attractive.
Another thing you want to watch for whenever a star player goes down is how that team plays in the first game or two. A couple different oddsmakers have told me that teams missing their best players will rally in the first instance or so and overachieve. Over time the void begins to be felt and those teams really start to struggle.
Best example of this is the Cleveland Cavaliers with and without LeBron James.
Many expected the Cavaliers to really struggle at the start of the season with LeBron’s talents in South Beach rather than Cleveland. But the Cavs went 5-5 SU and ATS in their first five games. Eventually they played to their level and now the worst team in the Association and one of the league’s worst bets (21-33-2 ATS).
It was the same thing for the Celtics when Kevin Garnett hurt his knee the year after the championship win. The C’s went 2-0 ATS in their first two games without KG but 1-10 in their next 11.
Teams can rally and overachieve for a game or two, but after a while those same teams will get exposed.
I’d love hear any thoughts you guys have on betting NBA games with star players sitting out.
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