Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
74 - 57 @ 56% for +11.3 Units
Thur, 02/10
#3: Phoenix Suns -6
Adding one more play for today. Already have Lakers +3 and UNDER 187.5 LAL/BOS.
I know a lot of people like the Warriors on double-revenge in this one but I disagree. Warriors are only 14-15 ATS revenging a loss this year, so this 'angle' is not significant in this one. In addition some people will mention that GSW are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing the 2nd game of a b2b. Well, Suns are actually 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playing with 2 days rest. Another 'angle' that doesn't apply here.
Bottom line is that Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights here. They played a close, tough game against Denver last night, pulling out a narrow win. Now they have to go on the road and play another uptempo team in the Suns. Hmmm... Speaking of going on the road, GSW are only 6-17 away from ORACLE Arena. So let's think about this on in simple terms. Based on their horrible road record, chances are that they will NOT win this game tonight. So basically 50% of the people (betting stats are at 50/50 right now) are hoping that Golden State covers the 6 point spread, or in other terms, loses this one by 5 or less points. Hmmm..
I like the way Phoenix is playing right now. They are actually playing defense, holding their opponents to 90 ppg and 40% from the field in their last 5 games. In addition they've already beaten the Warriors twice this year, covering both times. They have actually beaten this team 10 in a row at home and I don't expect tonight to be any different. Last game against the Warriors, Suns had Grant Hill covering Ellis. Ellis was held to 29% shooting, 5 for 17, and only 21 points. I expect them to employ a similar strategy tonight. The difference here will be that Ellis will be much more tired than he was in that meeting a few days ago. Ellis, along with Lee and Wright, logged in over 40 minutes last night. Now he's going to face a taller Hill who already did a great job containing him in a prior game. Expect a lot of long-range shots from Ellis which should lead to long rebounds and transition baskets for Phoenix.
One final note here. The line initially came out at -6 Suns and most of the early action was on Phoenix. We all know that early bettors are the 'sharpies'. Well throughout the day, the percentages moved closer together and now it's 50/50. Obviously the public has been backing the Warriors throughout the day. Even so, the line has moved to -6.5 Suns in some of the sharper books (5Dimes/Pinny). I agree with the 'sharp' bettors here. Phoenix is rested, has a deeper bench, and will play hard to get to .500 on the season with this win.
Suns get their 3rd win and cover against Golden State tonight.
Good luck!
74 - 57 @ 56% for +11.3 Units
Thur, 02/10
#3: Phoenix Suns -6
Adding one more play for today. Already have Lakers +3 and UNDER 187.5 LAL/BOS.
I know a lot of people like the Warriors on double-revenge in this one but I disagree. Warriors are only 14-15 ATS revenging a loss this year, so this 'angle' is not significant in this one. In addition some people will mention that GSW are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing the 2nd game of a b2b. Well, Suns are actually 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playing with 2 days rest. Another 'angle' that doesn't apply here.
Bottom line is that Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights here. They played a close, tough game against Denver last night, pulling out a narrow win. Now they have to go on the road and play another uptempo team in the Suns. Hmmm... Speaking of going on the road, GSW are only 6-17 away from ORACLE Arena. So let's think about this on in simple terms. Based on their horrible road record, chances are that they will NOT win this game tonight. So basically 50% of the people (betting stats are at 50/50 right now) are hoping that Golden State covers the 6 point spread, or in other terms, loses this one by 5 or less points. Hmmm..
I like the way Phoenix is playing right now. They are actually playing defense, holding their opponents to 90 ppg and 40% from the field in their last 5 games. In addition they've already beaten the Warriors twice this year, covering both times. They have actually beaten this team 10 in a row at home and I don't expect tonight to be any different. Last game against the Warriors, Suns had Grant Hill covering Ellis. Ellis was held to 29% shooting, 5 for 17, and only 21 points. I expect them to employ a similar strategy tonight. The difference here will be that Ellis will be much more tired than he was in that meeting a few days ago. Ellis, along with Lee and Wright, logged in over 40 minutes last night. Now he's going to face a taller Hill who already did a great job containing him in a prior game. Expect a lot of long-range shots from Ellis which should lead to long rebounds and transition baskets for Phoenix.
One final note here. The line initially came out at -6 Suns and most of the early action was on Phoenix. We all know that early bettors are the 'sharpies'. Well throughout the day, the percentages moved closer together and now it's 50/50. Obviously the public has been backing the Warriors throughout the day. Even so, the line has moved to -6.5 Suns in some of the sharper books (5Dimes/Pinny). I agree with the 'sharp' bettors here. Phoenix is rested, has a deeper bench, and will play hard to get to .500 on the season with this win.
Suns get their 3rd win and cover against Golden State tonight.
Good luck!
0
good luck Bodio!
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