Did you know that Phoenix is 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games using a hypothetical total of 216.5? Or that GSW is 4-1 UNDER against a similar hypothetical line in their last 5 games, and judging by the 2H of last night's game against DEN, seem to tighten their defense up in the 2H of games? 2H totals in the last 5 GSW games: 92, 89, 96, 101, 83 for an average of 92.2 points per 2H.
PHX has started playing defense, folks and GSW has started tightening the screws in the 2H as well. Something to watch out for tonight if these teams get off to a quick start.
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Did you know that Phoenix is 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games using a hypothetical total of 216.5? Or that GSW is 4-1 UNDER against a similar hypothetical line in their last 5 games, and judging by the 2H of last night's game against DEN, seem to tighten their defense up in the 2H of games? 2H totals in the last 5 GSW games: 92, 89, 96, 101, 83 for an average of 92.2 points per 2H.
PHX has started playing defense, folks and GSW has started tightening the screws in the 2H as well. Something to watch out for tonight if these teams get off to a quick start.
Really ozz? I was just using the number here on Covers' scoreboard page. If it is that high when my local puts out his number I'll likely be jumping on the UNDER big time, possibly 3 units.
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Really ozz? I was just using the number here on Covers' scoreboard page. If it is that high when my local puts out his number I'll likely be jumping on the UNDER big time, possibly 3 units.
Could be true. They are just leans at this point though, haven't locked anything in yet. Once I do though, history has shown that, more often than not, I will be right with my final plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by noypisyndicate:
kapono all ur leans is
Could be true. They are just leans at this point though, haven't locked anything in yet. Once I do though, history has shown that, more often than not, I will be right with my final plays.
1. Golden State Warriors/Phoenix Suns UNDER 218.5 (-110), 3.3 to win 3 -- lots of reasons to like this play if you ask me, some of them listed previously in this thread. PHX's defense is really starting to click and its coinciding with increased minutes for Gortat, who is really providing an interior presence that helps defend the rim and take away easy shots for opposing teams that, in previous years, were completely undefended.
In terms of trends, there are a lot pointing to an UNDER play in this game. GSW is 4-1 UNDER in their last 5, 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record, an astounding 21-9-1 UNDER in their last 31 overall road games (love the sample size here), and they are 11-5 UNDER in their last 16 games on the tail end of a B2B. For PHX, they are 5-2 UNDER in their last 7 games against teams with a losing SU record and 7-3 UNDER in their last 10 games as favorites. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in PHX and 5-2 UNDER overall in the last 7 meetings regardless of location.
Both of these teams have changed their styles of play somewhat after the offseason/midseason changes for both teams. You'll see a lot of 4th quarters now where the pace slows down dramatically for both these teams, and I'm hoping that PHX remembers the comeback they let GSW have on them in the 4th quarter last game and they come out and play legitimate defense at home in hopes of reaching .500. I see a 106-96 type game here in favor of Phoenix.
In addition, all three refs assigned to tonight's game have called more UNDERS than OVERS, with Rodney Mott being a significant UNDER referree (14-29 O/U). On games with totals about 205, Mott is 5-9 O/U. Mark Lindsay's last 6 PHX games have all gone UNDER.
I know a lot of people will look at the two past games for PHX and GSW this year and think that because those both went UNDER (totals of 196 and 208), that these teams are somehow "due" for an OVER. If anything, I think it speaks to the changed emphasis on defense and tempo for both teams and I see no reason to expect a shootout tonight.
In order for the OVER to hit, these teams need to average 54.75 points per quarter to get to 219. Of the 8 quarters between PHX and GSW to date, only 3 of the 8 have gone over that number and 5 went below it (quarters of 50, 32, 51, 50, and 46.) So what is the "truer" number we should continue to expect? By my view, we're looking at 2.5 to 3 quarters of around 50 points or so, which means we'd need a 69 point quarter mixed in there on average to hit the over. Despite the perceived offensive firepower of both squads and perceived lack of desire to play defense, only one quarter of the eight played to date went over 60 points, and that was the 61 point 4th quarter between the teams on December 2.
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1. Golden State Warriors/Phoenix Suns UNDER 218.5 (-110), 3.3 to win 3 -- lots of reasons to like this play if you ask me, some of them listed previously in this thread. PHX's defense is really starting to click and its coinciding with increased minutes for Gortat, who is really providing an interior presence that helps defend the rim and take away easy shots for opposing teams that, in previous years, were completely undefended.
In terms of trends, there are a lot pointing to an UNDER play in this game. GSW is 4-1 UNDER in their last 5, 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record, an astounding 21-9-1 UNDER in their last 31 overall road games (love the sample size here), and they are 11-5 UNDER in their last 16 games on the tail end of a B2B. For PHX, they are 5-2 UNDER in their last 7 games against teams with a losing SU record and 7-3 UNDER in their last 10 games as favorites. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in PHX and 5-2 UNDER overall in the last 7 meetings regardless of location.
Both of these teams have changed their styles of play somewhat after the offseason/midseason changes for both teams. You'll see a lot of 4th quarters now where the pace slows down dramatically for both these teams, and I'm hoping that PHX remembers the comeback they let GSW have on them in the 4th quarter last game and they come out and play legitimate defense at home in hopes of reaching .500. I see a 106-96 type game here in favor of Phoenix.
In addition, all three refs assigned to tonight's game have called more UNDERS than OVERS, with Rodney Mott being a significant UNDER referree (14-29 O/U). On games with totals about 205, Mott is 5-9 O/U. Mark Lindsay's last 6 PHX games have all gone UNDER.
I know a lot of people will look at the two past games for PHX and GSW this year and think that because those both went UNDER (totals of 196 and 208), that these teams are somehow "due" for an OVER. If anything, I think it speaks to the changed emphasis on defense and tempo for both teams and I see no reason to expect a shootout tonight.
In order for the OVER to hit, these teams need to average 54.75 points per quarter to get to 219. Of the 8 quarters between PHX and GSW to date, only 3 of the 8 have gone over that number and 5 went below it (quarters of 50, 32, 51, 50, and 46.) So what is the "truer" number we should continue to expect? By my view, we're looking at 2.5 to 3 quarters of around 50 points or so, which means we'd need a 69 point quarter mixed in there on average to hit the over. Despite the perceived offensive firepower of both squads and perceived lack of desire to play defense, only one quarter of the eight played to date went over 60 points, and that was the 61 point 4th quarter between the teams on December 2.
Did you know that Phoenix is 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games using a hypothetical total of 216.5? Or that GSW is 4-1 UNDER against a similar hypothetical line in their last 5 games, and judging by the 2H of last night's game against DEN, seem to tighten their defense up in the 2H of games? 2H totals in the last 5 GSW games: 92, 89, 96, 101, 83 for an average of 92.2 points per 2H.
PHX has started playing defense, folks and GSW has started tightening the screws in the 2H as well. Something to watch out for tonight if these teams get off to a quick start.
Been suspecting these +220 teams have been scoring less. Thanks for the confirmation! GL!
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Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
Did you know that Phoenix is 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games using a hypothetical total of 216.5? Or that GSW is 4-1 UNDER against a similar hypothetical line in their last 5 games, and judging by the 2H of last night's game against DEN, seem to tighten their defense up in the 2H of games? 2H totals in the last 5 GSW games: 92, 89, 96, 101, 83 for an average of 92.2 points per 2H.
PHX has started playing defense, folks and GSW has started tightening the screws in the 2H as well. Something to watch out for tonight if these teams get off to a quick start.
Been suspecting these +220 teams have been scoring less. Thanks for the confirmation! GL!
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