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[NBA Betting] Topic: Johnson's NBA Plays - Friday 12/10 |
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CMJohnson1 |
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#1 Posted: 12/10/2010 2:02:07 AM
SIDES: 26-18 (+9.05 units)
TOTALS: 37-37 (-4.25 units)
ML PLAYS: 31-12-3 (+16.90 units)
PROPS: 13-7-1 (+4.10 units)
PARLAYS: 2-0 (+4.10 units)
Friday Trends:
30 overs 29 unders
Home Team is 29-40 ATS and 44-25 SU
Favorites are 21-48 ATS
East @ West is 8-6 ATS and 5-9 SU
West @ East is 4-7 ATS and 5-6 SU
Double Digit Favorites are 2-7 ATS
Home Underdogs are 14-6 ATS and 12-8 SU
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Not as bad as it seemed on Thursday...finished off at 2-3 and -1.3 units overall. Still standing at 18-9 for the week...which I guess is pretty darn good. Fridays are the best days as far as trends go...and we got some really solid ones on the board.
Initial Leans....
Washington Wizards +4.5ish
Gotta figure the Knicks will be favorites on the road here...and the home underdogs are fantastic on Fridays...as are underdogs in general. I have a feeling they will be absolutely thrilled to be back home. Would like to see it up to +6...but somehow I doubt that. Anything more than that would be a gift.
Indiana Pacers 1st Half -2/3ish
Favored by 6 right now...not really sure the line will do much more than that. The Pacers are absolutely one of the best teams at home in the first half. Averaging 54 points scored, and only 45 points allowed...they have had the lead in 9 out of 10 home games at the half. Factor that in with the Bobcats record on the road in the first half (1-9-1 overall....a crazy -74 point differential...and giving up and average of 55 points in the last five road games) and you have a damn strong possibility of a play of the day.
Miami vs. Golden State OVER 204
The Heat should be more than able to do whatever they want against the Warriors in this one. The Warriors have nobody that matches the physicality of Dwayne Wade in the backcourt or LeBron James in the frontcourt. The Heat have been on a roll in the past week and a half as well...and really can't see much resistance in this one.
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BillyHoyle21 |
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#2 Posted: 12/10/2010 2:20:17 AM |
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CMJohnson1 |
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#3 Posted: 12/10/2010 2:22:52 AM 
Thanks Billy....still waiting to see what the lines are and where they go
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eatdust11 |
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#4 Posted: 12/10/2010 2:23:56 AM |
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BillyHoyle21 |
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#5 Posted: 12/10/2010 2:32:13 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:
Thanks Billy....still waiting to see what the lines are and where they go
I was just guessing some lines and i hit everyone on the number pretty much except for san antonio... i had it around -5 and it was -8! thats a ton of points to give to a pretty quality hawks team. |
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Mikado |
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#6 Posted: 12/10/2010 3:26:08 AM |
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Mikado |
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#7 Posted: 12/10/2010 3:26:19 AM  |
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senddddit22 |
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#8 Posted: 12/10/2010 4:11:29 AM |
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fishsticks |
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#9 Posted: 12/10/2010 5:47:38 AM |
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D-Town |
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#10 Posted: 12/10/2010 8:25:29 AM  |
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BuddyO |
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#11 Posted: 12/10/2010 8:58:41 AM |
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jinkopogi |
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#12 Posted: 12/10/2010 9:15:26 AM  |
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PGram13 |
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#13 Posted: 12/10/2010 9:29:51 AM BOL CMM and thanks for your insight buddy!
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cacabware |
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#14 Posted: 12/10/2010 10:13:18 AM  |
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CMJohnson1 |
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#15 Posted: 12/10/2010 10:51:33 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by eatdust11:
I agree with the Heat/Warriors over... the Heat should be able to score at will.. my only concern is whether Golden State will put up enough without Curry.
I'd say they only need to put up 90+
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CMJohnson1 |
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#16 Posted: 12/10/2010 10:55:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by BillyHoyle21:
I was just guessing some lines and i hit everyone on the number pretty much except for san antonio... i had it around -5 and it was -8! thats a ton of points to give to a pretty quality hawks team.
That it is...but the Hawks have yet to play a decent Western Conference team on the road...so I think that probably factored into it. Plus the Spurs have just been killing teams on their home court.
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more4us |
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#17 Posted: 12/10/2010 10:59:02 AM |
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808-Warrior |
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#18 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:01:11 AM
Love the Heat OVER the total along w/ the Heat side 1H & possibly game. GL.
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CMJohnson1 |
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#19 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:03:24 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:
Wiz are definitely a different home team, but New York is pretty hot right now. I'd take NY up to 4-5 because Wall isn't going to be 100% for a little while. John Wall is the Wizards because he is the only real PG the Wizards actually have on the roster outside of Lester Hudson who is a reserve.
Kind of surprised to only see this line at 3 points. Almost seems like they are looking to get a lot of action on the Knicks? Same with the over/under in this game...seems a little fishy as well. The Knicks are averaging 216 on the road...but the Wizards are only at 197 at home. The Knicks have only had 5 games on the road go over 217...and that was against the Clippers, Kings, Nuggets, Warriors, and Bulls...5 teams that don't play defense and like to speed up the pace.
This one will take some thinking
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CMJohnson1 |
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#20 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:04:12 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by 808-Warrior: John Wall is listed as DOUBTFUL. His status should be checked right b4 game time as they may see how he feels during shoot around. Love the Heat OVER the total along w/ the Heat side 1H & possibly game. GL.
And the line is still only at 3 with this. Something is up.
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CMJohnson1 |
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#21 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:04:38 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by cacabware:
These will be free plays for you CacaB
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cacabware |
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#22 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:09:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:
These will be free plays for you CacaB
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kaponofor3 |
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#23 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:14:06 AM
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CMJohnson1 |
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#24 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:24:28 AM
Was hoping to get it at -3...but I really don't think the extra half point will hurt anything in this one. Pacers should get out to a nice comfortable lead tonight.
Prediction: Pacers 54 Bobcats 44
Risk: 2.4 units to win 2 units
Indiana Pacers OVER 50.5 Points 1st Half
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
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CMJohnson1 |
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#25 Posted: 12/10/2010 11:28:35 AM
3 out of the 4 road games against the Western Conference have gone OVER for the Heat so far this year. Warriors are allowing 110 points per game in their last ten...so even without Curry in there...I think the Heat can do enough by themselves to pretty much ensure the OVER.
Prediction: Heat 110 Warriors 97
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
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