Mak's Wednesday Western

Hey fellas.  Split yesterday for an overall loss.  Went with the better team, they lost by 2 and I have no regrets.  I did however read this particular game wrong.  I was certain Mello would produce more than he did, 6-10 from the free throw line was not what I envisioned.  I also didn’t expect Nene to have such a sub-par game.  Harrington seems to have lost his offensive grit off the bench as well, their front-court really didn’t prove why they were 1st in the NBA.  I still believe Denver is has a legit roster, but it is clearly obvious the Mello man’s love for wearing Nuggets blue has faded.  Dallas and Los Angeles both won their games by minimal margins which made yesterday’s teaser worth it.  I was impressed with Portland’s ability to play without Dre, that was a good game to watch overall.  Atlanta and New Jersey was interesting as well.  NJ is just not as good as most of you think.  They have a very “scattered” roster with no identity.  The return of Williams to the NBA this week may help boost offensive productivity but the team lacks a consistent rotation and thus a focus and identity.  Philly is slowly emerging as a contender for the 8^th spot in the East.  If Jodie Meeks and Young continue lighting it up and improving their game, then Iggy may be a moveable commodity and will in fact be traded this season.  Depending on who they get in return, a young promising core could be created soon in Philly and Iggy’s recipient could make a splash this season.

Tonight I am going with a few wagers.  My first total of the season coupled with my 2nd teaser of the year.  Also going against two poor-defending mediocre non-playoff teams on back to back situations, facing fresh formidable top-tier western conference teams.  The most intriguing matchup on the card is two and a half men in Salt Lake City.  A lot of Miami love recently, understandably so I guess.  The cohesion of the three amigos after the epic game in Cleveland has been brilliant.  Nevertheless, I was hoping for a definitive answer on what the progress of this team would be going forward against Milwaukee.  Even though Miami won the game I was not that impressed, the Bucks played horrendously and an offensive sound team like Utah will not lose this game easily.  It will take an immaculate game from the big three to overcome Utah at home.  Revenge factor in effect, the Heat owned Utah in Miami for 3 quarters early in the season but a 42 point 4th quarter and a career game from Paul Milsap took the Heat out of it and eventually the Jazz won in OT.  That game sparked a furious, unimaginable run for Utah in the coming week.  In my opinion this is the game that will entrust my confidence in Miami this season.  If they can come away with a decisive game in Salt Lake City, I am sold on this team going forward.  Either way it will be the game to watch tonight and I am looking forward to it.  As always gents, best of luck with your plays.  Peace - - - MAK

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS – 8.5 (-110) - - - I despise hooks.  You will rarely see me post any plays with the hook.  I never really get down after a loss, I trust my knowledge of the game of basketball and the NBA enough to know I will always make it up, but losing by the hook in NBA games I find extremely irritating, I mean there is no such thing as half a point in a basketball game so why should I ever lose by half a point.  Nevertheless, tonight I don’t see a need to buy down in this game and would much rather use it towards buying down in my 2nd game of the night.  The Detroit Pistons are my only blacklisted team thus far in the season.  When I initially blacklisted this team I also promised myself to not bet against them until I could gain a better understanding of the roster.  For a year and half now I looked at this roster and was baffled at how bad they were, their talent on paper makes it very hard to gain a grasp on how terrible they really are.  The Detroit Pistons are an awful basketball team.  Their shot distribution is the most volatile and inconsistent of any team in the NBA, the refuse to create an identity rotation wise.  I actually think on top of how bad they have played, I have overestimated the talent on the roster.  The Pistons are losers of 7 of their last 9 games and for good reason, they are a terrible offensive team ranked 26th in the NBA in pts per game.  They are equally inept at ball movement and rebounding.  Detroit is currently ranked 25th in the NBA in assists and dead least in the NBA in rebounding.  A team is just not going to succeed in games with lacklustre effort on the glass.  Stuckey get’s a majority of their 19 assists per game which shows me this team is very selfish.  A lot of isolation plays coupled with too much perimeter play is a recipe for disaster, especially in a back to back situation.  The Pistons have yet to win a back to back game this season, in fact in their last two encounters on no days rest Detroit has lost by a combined 48 points...ouch, I do not see how a pissed off New Orleans team doesn’t win this game by double digits tonight.

4 UNITS GLEN “CHICKEN-FRIED” RICE - - -  

SAN ANTONIO SPURS – 9.0 (-130) - - - The San Antonio Spurs, without a doubt have the best backcourt in basketball.  Ellis and Curry may be a dynamic duo, but 4 is always better then two.  Tony Parker, Manu, George Hill and Gary Neal are the best backcourt in the NBA.  Not only can each of them score, penetrate and shoot the rock, each and every one of them can defend.  That type of rare breed of combo guards is very hard to find on any other team in the NBA.  There is a reason the Spurs are the best in the West.  Granted a relatively easy early season schedule is a factor in their record, but don’t doubt they are as good as they look.  What a lot of people don’t realize is only the Suns, Lakers and Knicks score more than San Antonio, and out of those 3 teams I believe San An is much better at defending, thus their league leading record 17-3 record.  San An also moves the ball better than any team in the NBA in my opinion, granted Boston and Utah lead them in team assists but that is in large part to their incredible point guards (Paul & D) who can facilitate an offense for 48 minutes.  The Spurs rely on numerous players to swing hi-lo including big men.  Blair, Splitter, Bonner, Duncan and McDyess are all good passers, a rare attribute for a big man to have and the Spurs have 5 .  San An is also the best 3pt shooting team in the NBA.  They make the 5th most 3 point shots in the league and percentage wise they are tops in the NBA.  Matt Bonner can change the complexion of an NBA game easily off the bench.  He attempts about 4-5 long range shots a game so you know Pop wants him to shoot, he can shoot with the best of them and can easily create about 8-12 points a game off of the long range ball.  Spurs can also guard the long ball quite well, they are the best in the NBA allowing the fewest 3 point baskets, a Golden State speciality.  The Warriors come into this game losers of 6 of their last 7 road games.  They put up a good fight in Dallas last night.  The return of Lou Amundson is excellent because it provides some much needed depth and size off the bench.  The thing is Lou has been out for an extended amount of time, he is not even in pre-season mode and it will take some time for this young stud to get acclimated with the GS system.  I really like the Warriors consistency in their short rotation.  They give the run to their main 5 guys, I tend to think that is a smart strategy for shallow teams...the only time it can get you into trouble is back to back games.  Doesn’t matter how young this squad is or how short the travel time within Texas; the Warriors will be affected tonight.  Their last two back to back losses were at an average of 23.5 points...yikes.  Curry, Ellis, Wright and Lee all played 40+ minutes last night.  I think this rested, veteran squad, playing at home and off a very convincing win, will have no trouble in defeating the Warriors on a back to back by double digits.  The overall top team tickles the twine in Texas tonight.

4 UNITS DAVID “I AM OLAJUWAN’S BITCH” ROBINSON - - - 

2 TM 7PT TEASER (HORNETS – 2 & SPURS – 4) - - - Playing another teaser since last night’s was successful.  Yesterday’s teaser was actually to limit unit loss if Denver didn’t cover, tonight it is actually to maximize profits or as a small contingency on the spread.  This 7pt compared to the 8pt yesterday is quite a bit cheaper for the faint at heart when it comes to juice.  It is much cheaper than a moneyline parlay and I believe the 7pt tease creates just as much value.  The home teams have a 17-4 combined home record and are rested.  The visiting teams come in with a 5-19 combined road record and are off tough back to back games.  I suspect both home squads to win tonight and this teaser to hit easily.

4 UNITS DAVID WESLEY & SEAN ELLIOT - - - 

WASHINGTON@SACRAMENTO OVER 200.0 (-110) - - - First total of the year, and for good reason.  I have always been unable to find value in totals consistently.  I think this one is worth a shot.  Both teams are atrocious on the defensive side of the ball.  Both squads allow their opponents to hit almost half their shots during an NBA contest.   Sacramento is 26th in the association allowing about 48% from the field and the Wiz are second last in league allowing about the same.  Washington on a ridiculous 8-1 run over the total.  Sacramento has finally reverted back to their best rotation and starting 5, improved offense will come as a result.  I love Agent Zero and Wall in the starting 5, more potency on offense to start.  Wizards won’t be completely exhausted as travel within Cali was minimal and defense will not be a focus in tonight game.

4 UNITS PAUL "DISCO BALL" WALL - - -

not an everyday reader of your threads but i drop in and out,,,,curious,,,,for all the effort you seem to put into your daily threads do you keep a year-long total?  and it seems as though you lay extra juice on a regular basis- do you find success doing that?  GL