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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Orlando has a legitimate shot at winning the series
David_Payne send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:00:31 PM
No NBA team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit to win a best-of-7 series. The Magic have a legitimate shot at becoming the first.

J.J. Redick is the reason   -- just kidding, although I am adding the Dukie to the list of guys who I never thought had a chance to be any good in the NBA (Rajon Rondo, Tayshaun Prince, Brook Lopez, Stephen Curry).

The real reason why I think the Magic have a shot is two-fold:
1.    Law of averages: Before Game 4, the Magic couldn’t have played much worse in this series. They must have missed 20 contested lay-ups this series. 20! Rashard Lewis, the team’s third leading scorer 14+ per, averaged five in the first three games. Orlando isn’t going to continue missing shots they usually make at I’d guess and 75 percent clip. And Lewis, how had 13 Monday and averaged 18 against the Celtics in the four regular-season meetings, will continue to play closer to his averages.
On the other side, Boston couldn’t have played much better in grabbing the 3-0 series lead. Rondo finally came back to earth in Game 4, as did the Boston bench. Seriously, Big Baby had 17 in Game 3. That’s not happening again.

2.    All year long, what was your perception of the Celtics? Old, right? Well, they are, and it might be catching up to them.  They looked tired, stagnant and mentally fatigued. They looked like they might have already blown their load. Over and over in Game 4, Rondo penetrated the lane like he had throughout the playoffs, but on Monday, there were no sharp cuts to the basket by his teammates. He looked around and often was forced to dribble it back out, while his teammates stood around by the 3-point line. Paul Pierce was great, until the end of Game 4, when everything he threw up came up short. Suddenly, Dwight Howard was getting under Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace’s skin. They looked old and cranky again, like they did at times during the regular season.
The Magic opened as a four-point favorite in Wednesday’s Game 5. That number is low in my opinion. Orlando was around a seven-point favorite in Games 1 and 2. They’ll play better Wednesday than they did in either of the first two games. The Celtics, on the other hand, are still due for another comeback-to-earth game, especially after hopping on a plane and flying to Orlando, after an exhausting overtime game.

Listen, it’s never happened before, so sitting here saying the Magic are going to win this series is a little extreme; that said, so is believe the aging Celtics are going to keep playing at an out-of-this-world level. Things are going to even out.

Good luck, gentlemen … DP

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#2
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:05:24 PM
Bos played like garbage and still almost won! This series is over. Bos ML tomorrow.
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#3
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:33:18 PM

not your best material, DP...

 

Boston played about as bad as they could play (only Ray Allen had a decent game among the starting 8 rotation)... Orlando literally played out of their minds... best possible game you can get from Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard... absolute best case scenario... and they still almost lost (should have), and needed the single luckiest shot i have seen in 30 years of watching the NBA (Nelson's banked 3 pointer) to win the game in OT...

 

Orlando has exactly as good of a chance of coming back from a 3-0 deficit as the previous 93 NBA teams that have faced that deficit...

 

Rondo will not have another terrible game like that, and Boston will return to form in game 5...

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#4
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:37:07 PM

They win one game and they have a legitimate shot?  come on man. get serious....   by the definition of 'legitimate' at the series odds you are getting from the magic, you should unload your account on them then..

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Posted: 5/25/2010 12:38:59 PM
It is a stretch to call Jameer Nelson's bank three the single luckiest shot in the last 30 years...Lucky? Of course...Luckiest ever? Not a chance...
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#6
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:40:11 PM
I've already seen a few mention about the overtime and fatigue.  I'm pretty sure they're gonna get a full night of rest before the game tomorrow.
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#7
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:45:18 PM

Orlando can def win out but game 6 is the true test obviously.

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#8
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:46:17 PM
well Game 5 and 7 are in orlando so atleast they have a fighting
chance.

Winner of game 5 has a great shot to win the series 


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#9
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:50:31 PM
i'd say orl got a ~10% chance of winning this series if u wanna call that "a legitimate shot"
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#10
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:55:29 PM
I hope so!!! but i'm not expecting much from them anymore!


:(


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#11
Posted: 5/25/2010 12:57:24 PM
Game 2 was the first time in my life to feel sad for winning a bet!

HONESTLY. I just bet on Bos because of my friends.

i had to do an errand, so i had to leave the house. my friend texted, "Orl 4 final."

i was so damned happy. I win a bet, orl wins game!!!

1 minute later, he texts again, sorry Bos 3 final.

me... :(
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#12
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:03:00 PM
Couldnt agree more,  a chance they have thats for sure,, They have got to be one of the best teams put in this spot of being down 1-3 with a chance to win 3 straight, , Its all going to come down to turnovers and execution,, if they try playing slow ball like last night they will lose,, but if the can push the ball up the court on those long rebounds and turnovers they could really separate themselves,,, Good Stuff man,, GL
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#13
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:08:54 PM
Stern will NEVER let this happen.

I like the Magic too bro and was rooting for them in the East, but face reality.

Orlando wins the next game then Boston wins in 6 at the Garden... maybe 7 if Stern wants to create the hype you talking about.

Last night's game was completely botched by Boston to keep them from sweeping Orlando.  How many shots hit the front of the rim in the 4th Q and OT???  Ray Allen and swish beyond the arc anytime he wants to and was used to "make things look close."

You're betting with Stern, not against him now.
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#14
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:10:14 PM
Ray Allen can*

The Boston players were told to "shoot short and to extend the series"

More ratings, more revenue. 
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#15
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:13:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

not your best material, DP...

 

Boston played about as bad as they could play (only Ray Allen had a decent game among the starting 8 rotation)... Orlando literally played out of their minds... best possible game you can get from Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard... absolute best case scenario... and they still almost lost (should have), and needed the single luckiest shot i have seen in 30 years of watching the NBA (Nelson's banked 3 pointer) to win the game in OT...

 

Orlando has exactly as good of a chance of coming back from a 3-0 deficit as the previous 93 NBA teams that have faced that deficit...

 

Rondo will not have another terrible game like that, and Boston will return to form in game 5...



I'd have to say Pierce had a good game my friend, not just Ray Ray.

Rondo was completely taken out of that game because of the early foul trouble.  Wasn't able to be aggressive like he usually is and that's what killed them at the end of the game.  In the last 2-3 minutes of regulation and for the entire overtime period the Celtics offense consisted of passing the ball to either Paul Pierce or Ray Allen and isolating.  No penetration into the lane by Rondo, no drive and kick, nothing.  KG and Big Baby were afraid to shoot, as was Rondo. 

I highly doubt that will be the case in Game 5, unless of course Stern puts the call into the refs to help get Rondo a few fouls early on.  Even then, the Magic are just overmatched.  I like the Celtics to win by about the same margin as the Magic did in Game 4.
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#16
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:14:53 PM

I have the Celts in the series and agree with a lot of what you wrote. The other aspect is the shortness between games now also which would favor Orlando.

The key game though will be game six as the Celts will be in that same place Orlando was in game 4. 4 in a row is tough over any good team and that aspect should prevail somewhere along the line.

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#17
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:15:58 PM
But David,

Stern has already predetermined BOS and LA...
Playing with covers and spreads in the postseason is tricky - especially with refs. 


The fact is:

Nobody wants to see the same finals game as last year, especially not Stern.

The biggest TV market teams always make it; as I said with Chicago 2 weeks before the season was over when everyone doubted me them getting in over Toronto; well it happened people.

Boston and LA are among the biggest TV markets in the entire country   Hell, even Canadians get Boston's broadcasts.
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#18
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:19:41 PM
and when you say you doubted Steph Curry from the start - did you just not pay any attention to him at Davidson or what?  No offense and negative-connotation with that comment.  But how could you not have heard of the baby-faced assassin  Amazing collegiate career - and I truly believe he will be all-star material because he definitely has the potential to be a BIG name in the NBA.
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#19
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:21:27 PM
But Rondo by far, has been the biggest surprisd and has improved his all-around game substantially since joining the league.
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#20
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:49:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:

But David,

Stern has already predetermined BOS and LA...
Playing with covers and spreads in the postseason is tricky - especially with refs. 


The fact is:

Nobody wants to see the same finals game as last year, especially not Stern.

The biggest TV market teams always make it; as I said with Chicago 2 weeks before the season was over when everyone doubted me them getting in over Toronto; well it happened people.

Boston and LA are among the biggest TV markets in the entire country   Hell, even Canadians get Boston's broadcasts.
Will you shut up with this david stern fixed crap? That stuff is such bullshit. If that was true and it leaked out somehow, the nba would never exist. Not true with stern
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#21
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:55:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

not your best material, DP...

 

Boston played about as bad as they could play (only Ray Allen had a decent game among the starting 8 rotation)... Orlando literally played out of their minds... best possible game you can get from Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard... absolute best case scenario... and they still almost lost (should have), and needed the single luckiest shot i have seen in 30 years of watching the NBA (Nelson's banked 3 pointer) to win the game in OT...

 

Orlando has exactly as good of a chance of coming back from a 3-0 deficit as the previous 93 NBA teams that have faced that deficit...

 

Rondo will not have another terrible game like that, and Boston will return to form in game 5...



howd did boston play bad, pierce had 30+ points.
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#22
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:56:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:



I'd have to say Pierce had a good game my friend, not just Ray Ray.

Rondo was completely taken out of that game because of the early foul trouble.  Wasn't able to be aggressive like he usually is and that's what killed them at the end of the game.  In the last 2-3 minutes of regulation and for the entire overtime period the Celtics offense consisted of passing the ball to either Paul Pierce or Ray Allen and isolating.  No penetration into the lane by Rondo, no drive and kick, nothing.  KG and Big Baby were afraid to shoot, as was Rondo. 

I highly doubt that will be the case in Game 5, unless of course Stern puts the call into the refs to help get Rondo a few fouls early on.  Even then, the Magic are just overmatched.  I like the Celtics to win by about the same margin as the Magic did in Game 4.

 

Pierce did a lot of things well, as far as being aggressive... i wouldn't question his effort... but 0-6 from 3-pt range and 11-25 from the field is an off night for Pierce, even if he did get 32 pts...

he missed 3 wide open 3 pointers in OT... Pierce had an off night...

Rondo was a victim of the fouls, but he is just that kind of player... when he is in the rhythm of the game he dominates it... when he isn't, he just phones it in...

i expect Rondo to dictate everything in game 5...

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#23
Posted: 5/25/2010 1:57:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by eriffic:



howd did boston play bad, pierce had 30+ points.

 

read above!  or check the boxscore... or watch the game...

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#24
Posted: 5/25/2010 2:01:30 PM
Ice, you said only Ray Ray had a decent game, and I would certainly give Pierce at minimum a solid game.  I agree that as the captain of that team, you HAVE to hit those shots at the end.  Couldn't have possibly got any better looks.
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#25
Posted: 5/25/2010 2:08:17 PM

yea... i wouldn't say Pierce had a bad game, but the 32 points is misleading...

those missed open looks were the difference in the game, and i can assure you Pierce is NOT happy with his game 4 performance...

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