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[NBA Betting] Topic: Easiest $1,000 you'll ever make!!! |
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PAZ-MAN |
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#1 Posted: 5/6/2010 1:46:31 PM
Go back the past 10 years and see how many teams who have allowed 100+ points per game during the regular season made it to the Finals. The answer: Zero teams!!! I only went back 10 years. This probably goes back 20 years!!! As They say... Defense wins Championships and Phoenix does not fit into this category. Neither did Denver who was the other team in the playoffs who allowed 100+ points per game during the regular season and they were bounced in the 1st round! To me this is the closest thing you are going to get to a "sure thing"! Easy Money! Money in the Bank!
Now, If San Antonio wins the next 4 out of 5 and comes back to beat Phoenix, then I will be biting my fingernails, because San Antonio does play defense and they matchup better with the Lakers than Phoenix does.
So here it goes, I'm laying my bet down now, hoping that Phoenix does move on because I know the price is going to go up once the Western Conference Finals is set. The price is -250 right now for the Lakers. If Phoenix moves on I think it will go up to -350 or -400? I recommend Taking advantage of this low price now. It's easy money in my opinion!
NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE LA LAKERS $2,500 TO WIN $1,000
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nbafan88 |
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#2 Posted: 5/6/2010 1:51:54 PM
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kaponofor3 |
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#3 Posted: 5/6/2010 1:52:07 PM
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STEELDRC |
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#4 Posted: 5/6/2010 1:53:09 PM |
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rangerz2478 |
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#5 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:01:34 PM
If you are going to be placing a bet like this, you HAVE to make sure you find the best price, and you did not do that.
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PAZ-MAN |
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#6 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:04:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by nbafan88:
the lakers will not be -350 to -400
Time will tell. I thing it will be at least -350 |
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PAZ-MAN |
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#7 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:09:35 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
PAZ -- the only thing you are overlooking is that you are judging Phoenix's defense by points per game allowed. There are much better rubrics out there for assessing defense, including points per possession, which is the most important indicator given that Phoenix games generally have more possessions that your average game. Plus, if you've watched Phoenix this year I'm sure you'd agree that they have really played a lot better on the defensive end as the year has gone on.
I'm basing this on history. The past 10 years no team allowing +100 points per game during the regular season has ever made the NBA finals. Plus Phoenix has nobody to matchup with Bynum, Gasol and Odom. They could put Amare on one of those guys but even his defense is poor! Then are you going to put Jason Collins on Bynum Or Gasol? That's laughable! |
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PAZ-MAN |
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#8 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:12:21 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
I'm not arguing with the IDEA of taking the Lakers, but -250 is an awful, awful price. The true value of the Lakers to win the west right now is -210-220ish MAX. (matchbook had -205 posted yesterday and wsex has -220) You laying -250 is giving the bookie a tremendous edge that you shouldn't be giving regardless of how confident you are.
If you are going to be placing a bet like this, you HAVE to make sure you find the best price, and you did not do that.
Well, I don't have an account with WSWX or Matchbook. So, I took what I could get. In the next round my -250 price is going to look good when it jumps to -350. In any case I don't think it will matter. This looks like free money! |
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rangerz2478 |
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#9 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:12:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by PAZ-MAN:
I'm basing this on history. The past 10 years no team allowing +100 points per game during the regular season has ever made the NBA finals. Plus Phoenix has nobody to matchup with Bynum, Gasol and Odom. They could put Amare on one of those guys but even his defense is poor! Then are you going to put Jason Collins on Bynum Or Gasol? That's laughable!
You still are completely missing the boat here. I also think the Lakers win the west so I'm not arguing with the play. I'm arguing with the price of the play.
If there was a bet out there that you KNEW was 50% to hit, would you take -150 on it when the value was even money? No, you wouldn't. When making these kind of future bets, you gotta find the true value of the bet. Lakers to win the west at -250 isn't it at this point, win or lose.
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PAZ-MAN |
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#10 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:15:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
You still are completely missing the boat here. I also think the Lakers win the west so I'm not arguing with the play. I'm arguing with the price of the play.
If there was a bet out there that you KNEW was 50% to hit, would you take -150 on it when the value was even money? No, you wouldn't. When making these kind of future bets, you gotta find the true value of the bet. Lakers to win the west at -250 isn't it at this point, win or lose.
Well, I guess I missed the boat.  |
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rangerz2478 |
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#11 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:18:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by PAZ-MAN:
Well, I guess I missed the boat.
I'm really not trying to talk garbage bud, I want you to win but I can't stand to see when gamblers get ripped off by their book. Regardless, I hope you hit it, GL. 
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PAZ-MAN |
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#12 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:23:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478: I'm really not trying to talk garbage bud, I want you to win but I can't stand to see when gamblers get ripped off by their book. Regardless, I hope you hit it, GL.
Like I said, I don't have Matchbook or Wsex, so I took what i could get. I wanted to get my bet in before it jumps to -300 or -350 |
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Raging_Fetus |
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#13 Posted: 5/6/2010 3:15:47 PM
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#14 Posted: 5/6/2010 3:22:46 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Raging_Fetus:
GL with your bet, but just so you know, your wrong... Last year the series price for the Lakers vs. the Nuggets in the West Conf Finals was Lakers -210, the Lakers are not as good this year and vegas has not favored them as much as last year and the Suns are a more popular bet then the Nuggets were and Id say the Suns are = in ability and talent to last years Nuggets. The series price will be Lakers -160 - Lakers -190, no higher. Go look at past Conf finals. Even the Bulls were only -250 vs. the Knicks and Pacers in the 90's
Well THIS I can't agree with. 5dimes currently has the field (vs the Lakers) to win the west at +190, so there is no way the Lakers will be -160. But with that being said, I don't think they will be -350 either. It should be somewhere around -220 vs the Spurs or -260 vs the Suns.
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Gold_Rush |
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#15 Posted: 5/6/2010 3:27:11 PM
and that could be the very thing that wins the series
LA very tough at home |
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Gold_Rush |
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#16 Posted: 5/6/2010 3:27:59 PM to make it to the finals.. |
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#17 Posted: 5/6/2010 3:48:44 PM |
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PAZ-MAN |
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#18 Posted: 5/6/2010 9:24:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Gold_Rush: The Lakers will have game 7 in LA if they play Phoenix
and that could be the very thing that wins the series
LA very tough at home
I think if Lakers face Phoenix, Lakers win in 5 or 6. Just like Utah, Phoenix has no Bigs to deal with Bynum, Gasol and Odom! Amare is great offensively but is weak on defense.  Jason Collins on Bynum? Amare trying to guard Gasol?  Grant Hill trying to defend Odom?  Then they have to try to figure out how to stop Kobe?  . Phoenix has no chance! |
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PAZ-MAN |
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#19 Posted: 5/8/2010 7:21:49 AM  |
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PAZ-MAN |
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#20 Posted: 5/8/2010 11:10:18 PM  |
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XhuegoX |
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#21 Posted: 5/8/2010 11:12:20 PM |
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SCROG |
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#22 Posted: 5/8/2010 11:40:42 PM Listen to rangerz Paz... he knows his odds... and Lakers won't take 7 to oust the Suns.... |
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mc353 |
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#23 Posted: 5/9/2010 12:16:32 AM |
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PAZ-MAN |
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#24 Posted: 5/9/2010 2:10:50 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by mc353:
You can't judge by points for or against with a team like the Suns because you have to take into account that they run their offense quickly so the other teams get a lot more possessions thereby increasing the points they let up...The Suns may not play great D but they get crucial stops plus the Lakers don't play D though so the series could go deep
Dude, i don't care how fast they run up and down the court or what kind of pace they play at. I'm going on history. No team allowing 100+ points during the regular season has ever reached the finals in the past 10 years. It could go back 20 years? I just went back 10 Years. Plus the Suns have no big men to handle Bynum, Gasol and Odom. Lakers win in 5 or 6! Money in the bank! |
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Raging_Fetus |
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#25 Posted: 5/9/2010 2:15:36 AM
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