Had enough time tonight to finalize my capping on this game and I am not happy at all.
There is one thing that will make or break my pick but I will explain that later....
Toronto needs this win bad and we know Cleveland has clinched everything they need to at this point so lets look at this objectively.
Toronto will finish 8th at best as they own the tiebreaker vs Chicago and they are one up and they play CHI one time on Sunday and they both have similar schedules with 6 to play. Toronto only needs 2 wins 3 tops to get the 8th spot IMO. Well guess who they will play in the playoffs. THE CAVS.
Cleveland has won the last ten vs Toronto SU at home and have covered only 60% of those games though. One thing I know is that Lebron is a Raptor killer (just like Kobe) and there has to be some sense of pride defending the home floor against possibly the team you are facing in the playoffs. Also, does Cleveland want to lay down and play Toronto in the playoffs or play hard and win having a better shot at playing Chicago . I say they want CHICAGO, the Raptors are a better team then Chicago and I can see them having a harder time playing the Raps then Chicago. The Raptors will be the best 8th seed Cleveland could play right now as they should be a 5th-6th seed realistically.
The Raptors are 7-5 on two days rest ATS and Cleveland are 4-5.
The Raptors covered and won SU the last 2 of 3 against Cleveland and should have won all 3 but they lost in OT last game in Cleveland but were without Bosh. Both wins came in Toronto of course.
Raptors NEED this game, Cleveland doe sn't need this game at all so why is the spread at -7 ?????????????????????????
This spread should be -2 MAX and to be honest, I thought it could be Toronto -1 or a PK. Cleveland was only fav by 5.5 without Toronto having Bosh and the game meant something to both sides. I am friggan shellshocked at this line. I figured everyone would be on the Raptors but unless someone can tell me different, most bets are going on Cleveland early but the line is dropping ?? It is down to 6.5 at some books, major steam or is it a key injury or because Lebron was recently commenting on how he would like to rest and the games don't mean the same anymore.
I was going to go big on this game but it has almost become a NO PLAY for me at this point. I just don't think Cleveland lets the Raps win for the first time in many years here especially since they will most likely be playing them. A win here by Cleveland tells the Raptors, even when the game means nothing and we are resting some players, WE CAN STILL BEAT YOU. It could shatter the Raps confidence and it actually might with 2 B2B losses.
One key factor for me, if Varejao plays, I will have 1 Unit on Cleveland and will wait for the line to get to -6 or possibly less. Just like Lebron, he is a Raptor killer and him playing shows that they want to win.
If Varejao is out, then Cleveland may be conceding this game as they are 0-4 ATS since he has been out and I will play the Raptors for 2 Units.
My initial lean was a 10 Unit play on the Raptors with a small .5 Unit on the ML but I have cancelled that now as my numbers and the current line are way off. Unless I am missing something, feel free to comment. I will still be studying this game further but like I said above, Raptors only need to win 2 games plus the one against CHI and they will lock up the 8th seed so this game is not do or die, yet. They will play to win but not winning in Cleveland for a long time is a trend that is hard to bet against even when the game looks like it means nothing for Cleveland.
Recap:
If Varejao plays : Cleveland -6.5 or better for 1 Unit
If Varejao is out : Toronto + 6.5 for 2 Units.
Good Luck to all.
Feel free to comment cause I am confused at this line.