I don't want to be too quick on the trigger, but I think that Oklahoma City should be the play in this game. Starting at the top, you have Collison filling in for Paul still, which is a great deviation from his normal and anticipated role throughout the season so far. Darren Collison is a PG, don't get me wrong, but he's still learning how to play big minutes in the NBA and be the leader for this Hornets squad.
Where I think OKC has the huge, huge edge is at that PG spot. Why? Cause the guy guarding Collison will be none other than his old college teammate Russell Westbrook. These two guys went to war against each other for two years at UCLA in practices. Westbrook will know all of Collison's tricks and won't be fooled by his blazing speed. More importantly though, Westbrook is such a physical guard, especially on the defensive end. Seeing what I've seen of Collison over the years, I expect Westbrook to just totally disrupt his rhythm. We should see a lot of possession where the Hornets don't initiate their offense until 12-14 seconds left on the play clock. When you have to do that against a good defensive squad like OKC, that really only leaves you with one or two options in your offense before it breaks down and someone has to create their own shot.
Add in the fact that I don't think that New Orleans has anyone who can remotely come close to guarding the Durantula, and this should point to a cover by OKC despite being on the second half of a back to back and coming off the huge home win against ATL. Not a huge traveling distance for OKC either.
Another angle to examine is the revenge angle -- the last time these squads played was a little less than a month ago on Jan. 6. The result was a 97-92 Hornets victory. Westbrook went 5-16 against Chris Paul, and he should be able to improve on that by muscling Collison around on the offensive end. Don't be surprised to see Westbrook try to take Collison into the post where he can punish him. Hornets shot 49% that game, something I'm sure the OKC coaching staff will point out in their pre-game strategy session with the Thunder.
Anyone else have thoughts on this game? My only hesitation is that the line seems a tad short -- I would have pegged it at OKC -3.5 or -4 or so. That scares me a tad.
I don't want to be too quick on the trigger, but I think that Oklahoma City should be the play in this game. Starting at the top, you have Collison filling in for Paul still, which is a great deviation from his normal and anticipated role throughout the season so far. Darren Collison is a PG, don't get me wrong, but he's still learning how to play big minutes in the NBA and be the leader for this Hornets squad.
Where I think OKC has the huge, huge edge is at that PG spot. Why? Cause the guy guarding Collison will be none other than his old college teammate Russell Westbrook. These two guys went to war against each other for two years at UCLA in practices. Westbrook will know all of Collison's tricks and won't be fooled by his blazing speed. More importantly though, Westbrook is such a physical guard, especially on the defensive end. Seeing what I've seen of Collison over the years, I expect Westbrook to just totally disrupt his rhythm. We should see a lot of possession where the Hornets don't initiate their offense until 12-14 seconds left on the play clock. When you have to do that against a good defensive squad like OKC, that really only leaves you with one or two options in your offense before it breaks down and someone has to create their own shot.
Add in the fact that I don't think that New Orleans has anyone who can remotely come close to guarding the Durantula, and this should point to a cover by OKC despite being on the second half of a back to back and coming off the huge home win against ATL. Not a huge traveling distance for OKC either.
Another angle to examine is the revenge angle -- the last time these squads played was a little less than a month ago on Jan. 6. The result was a 97-92 Hornets victory. Westbrook went 5-16 against Chris Paul, and he should be able to improve on that by muscling Collison around on the offensive end. Don't be surprised to see Westbrook try to take Collison into the post where he can punish him. Hornets shot 49% that game, something I'm sure the OKC coaching staff will point out in their pre-game strategy session with the Thunder.
Anyone else have thoughts on this game? My only hesitation is that the line seems a tad short -- I would have pegged it at OKC -3.5 or -4 or so. That scares me a tad.
You gotta figure the LAC/ATL game is the perfect situation for an ATL blowout too. I had CHI last night and was surprised to see LAC take them down for a SU win. ATL pissed, coming off a tough loss to OKC on the road, and they get LAC next? Sets up to be trouble.
You gotta figure the LAC/ATL game is the perfect situation for an ATL blowout too. I had CHI last night and was surprised to see LAC take them down for a SU win. ATL pissed, coming off a tough loss to OKC on the road, and they get LAC next? Sets up to be trouble.
tmpeus -- trying to cap NBA is more like it, LOL. I haven't had nearly the time needed to be a good NCAAB capper this year. I know way more about the NBA on just a day to day basis. For example, I probably name more than one or two players on a non-Pac 10 major conference squad. With the mid-majors, there's no chance.
With the NBA though, I at least am familiar with all the players and their tendencies and what not. I feel like I have a little bit bigger edge here (at least, given that I haven't put in the time for NCAAB this year).
tmpeus -- trying to cap NBA is more like it, LOL. I haven't had nearly the time needed to be a good NCAAB capper this year. I know way more about the NBA on just a day to day basis. For example, I probably name more than one or two players on a non-Pac 10 major conference squad. With the mid-majors, there's no chance.
With the NBA though, I at least am familiar with all the players and their tendencies and what not. I feel like I have a little bit bigger edge here (at least, given that I haven't put in the time for NCAAB this year).
tmpeus -- trying to cap NBA is more like it, LOL. I haven't had nearly the time needed to be a good NCAAB capper this year. I know way more about the NBA on just a day to day basis. For example, I probably name more than one or two players on a non-Pac 10 major conference squad. With the mid-majors, there's no chance.
With the NBA though, I at least am familiar with all the players and their tendencies and what not. I feel like I have a little bit bigger edge here (at least, given that I haven't put in the time for NCAAB this year).
tmpeus -- trying to cap NBA is more like it, LOL. I haven't had nearly the time needed to be a good NCAAB capper this year. I know way more about the NBA on just a day to day basis. For example, I probably name more than one or two players on a non-Pac 10 major conference squad. With the mid-majors, there's no chance.
With the NBA though, I at least am familiar with all the players and their tendencies and what not. I feel like I have a little bit bigger edge here (at least, given that I haven't put in the time for NCAAB this year).
oh and good call on the phoenix play.. i hate the hornets style of play with or without CP3 but I just felt the other players would step up. OKC is a young scrappy group of players that has a few vets that get them ready mentally for every game. The line is probably going to move to -3
oh and good call on the phoenix play.. i hate the hornets style of play with or without CP3 but I just felt the other players would step up. OKC is a young scrappy group of players that has a few vets that get them ready mentally for every game. The line is probably going to move to -3
nbafan -- that may be true, but I still consider it somewhat surprising when a 7 point dog wins straight up, especially on the road, and especially when its the freaking Clippers of all teams. Were you on the LAC moneyline last night?
nbafan -- that may be true, but I still consider it somewhat surprising when a 7 point dog wins straight up, especially on the road, and especially when its the freaking Clippers of all teams. Were you on the LAC moneyline last night?
nbafan -- thanks on the props for the Phoenix play. I think that NOH will eventually learn to play together without Paul, but it's gonna take at least a few games for them to learn how to do everything without their unquestioned leader on the floor. Phoenix and OKC are both solid squads, and while NOH got a look at one of the best offenses in Phoenix, now they get a look at one of the better defenses in OKC. Tough 2 game start without Paul. There should be value in them in a few weeks once they figure out what the hell they are doing out there without him.
tom --
cougar -- I wouldn't call myself "excellent" or even "good". I'm just doing my best to make smart plays. Whether or not they hit is a whole other story.
nbafan -- thanks on the props for the Phoenix play. I think that NOH will eventually learn to play together without Paul, but it's gonna take at least a few games for them to learn how to do everything without their unquestioned leader on the floor. Phoenix and OKC are both solid squads, and while NOH got a look at one of the best offenses in Phoenix, now they get a look at one of the better defenses in OKC. Tough 2 game start without Paul. There should be value in them in a few weeks once they figure out what the hell they are doing out there without him.
tom --
cougar -- I wouldn't call myself "excellent" or even "good". I'm just doing my best to make smart plays. Whether or not they hit is a whole other story.
Damn, hard to ignore all these numbers and scenarios...
Only thing NO has goin' for 'em is that whole "playin' hard w/o superstar angle" that some guys think plays a big role, but when the team is the Hornets and the star is CP3 I don't think it really applies.
This sounds like one of the best plays today to me. Thanks for the insight.
Damn, hard to ignore all these numbers and scenarios...
Only thing NO has goin' for 'em is that whole "playin' hard w/o superstar angle" that some guys think plays a big role, but when the team is the Hornets and the star is CP3 I don't think it really applies.
This sounds like one of the best plays today to me. Thanks for the insight.
no way is this one of the best plays on the board.. peja can kill any bettor against the hornets.. its a no play and I will be buying it off before game time
no way is this one of the best plays on the board.. peja can kill any bettor against the hornets.. its a no play and I will be buying it off before game time
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