For about the last part of last year and this whole year i have been following somewhat of a system. Dont know if anyones heard of it but here it goes.
When the line for the second half is more than the line for the game you take the oppisite team.
ie
tonights game orlando/toronto
line was -7 orlando for the game 2nd half was orlando -71/2
Toronto covers by 4 ,wins outright
Been playin the system like i said for a while, it doesnt happen very often but its currently with the orlando game tonight 16-5.
Let me know if anyones heard of this before or if anyone has any comments or thoughts on the system.
Thanks MM
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
For about the last part of last year and this whole year i have been following somewhat of a system. Dont know if anyones heard of it but here it goes.
When the line for the second half is more than the line for the game you take the oppisite team.
ie
tonights game orlando/toronto
line was -7 orlando for the game 2nd half was orlando -71/2
Toronto covers by 4 ,wins outright
Been playin the system like i said for a while, it doesnt happen very often but its currently with the orlando game tonight 16-5.
Let me know if anyones heard of this before or if anyone has any comments or thoughts on the system.
Don't know of many players that play 2nd halfs because a lot of people call them rip off bets. Personally I like playing totals at halves, but sometimes like tonight, I found myself on Toronto. But they way I figured it, at half Howard had 7 turnovers and Orlando was having an off shooting night, but also shooting uncharacteristically well from the FT. I could tell at half Toronto was going to win this game by more than +2 because Orlando had no consistency to their offense since the beginning on the game.
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Don't know of many players that play 2nd halfs because a lot of people call them rip off bets. Personally I like playing totals at halves, but sometimes like tonight, I found myself on Toronto. But they way I figured it, at half Howard had 7 turnovers and Orlando was having an off shooting night, but also shooting uncharacteristically well from the FT. I could tell at half Toronto was going to win this game by more than +2 because Orlando had no consistency to their offense since the beginning on the game.
I actually have a friend/old roommate that works at the Paris sportsbook in Vegas. He tells me the 2nd half lines are created based upon the original spread and by current game statistics only. Not previous games or situations included. Some teams are better at closing at others which doesn't get accounted for - as well as days rest. However he did tell me quarter wagering gets created through a little more complex of a system involving what I just mentioned.
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I actually have a friend/old roommate that works at the Paris sportsbook in Vegas. He tells me the 2nd half lines are created based upon the original spread and by current game statistics only. Not previous games or situations included. Some teams are better at closing at others which doesn't get accounted for - as well as days rest. However he did tell me quarter wagering gets created through a little more complex of a system involving what I just mentioned.
I have seen people use it,and it worked on those nights,but i never saw them post every night,or post their record.I know some good cappers who have talked about that system though,as well as when there are back to back games on tnt....you wait to see what the first game does,and if the home team loses in the first game,you take the home team on the ML in the 2nd game( only if they're a dog....ats if they're a fav).If the home team wins in the first game,you take the road team ats in the 2nd game.It seems to work every time,but how often does tnt have back to back games?
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I have seen people use it,and it worked on those nights,but i never saw them post every night,or post their record.I know some good cappers who have talked about that system though,as well as when there are back to back games on tnt....you wait to see what the first game does,and if the home team loses in the first game,you take the home team on the ML in the 2nd game( only if they're a dog....ats if they're a fav).If the home team wins in the first game,you take the road team ats in the 2nd game.It seems to work every time,but how often does tnt have back to back games?
According to his formula sg,you would take the clipps +6 2h.I need to make up for the clev under i lost,but like you,i kind of like the lakeshow in the 2h. I think i'll take the clips +6 just to test it.
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According to his formula sg,you would take the clipps +6 2h.I need to make up for the clev under i lost,but like you,i kind of like the lakeshow in the 2h. I think i'll take the clips +6 just to test it.
It's not as much about following the system as it is following the game.
As for the B2B TNT games, yes I've heard something about it. At one point it happened on almost every game for an entire season, in the 05-06 season I believe. While this trend hasn't been as consistent since then, it still happens pretty frequently.
Good luck on your plays!
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It's not as much about following the system as it is following the game.
As for the B2B TNT games, yes I've heard something about it. At one point it happened on almost every game for an entire season, in the 05-06 season I believe. While this trend hasn't been as consistent since then, it still happens pretty frequently.
Yeah you can't necessarily bet on or against a number given just the 1st half worth of play. 2nd half is typically when more points are scored, especially in a close game that could go to overtime - IE Heat/Celts game. I don't play unders in close games where the possibly exists of a lot of fouling or OT. Over will save you the stress if you are watching the game too because there have been plenty of overs I've seen happen right as the 4th Q starts.
I think we're coming up with something here... There is a larger advantage to us handicappers in halves because the books have limited time to make these lines. We need to look the numbers are trends and into the endurance and skill of the roster to play a full 48 mins.
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Yeah you can't necessarily bet on or against a number given just the 1st half worth of play. 2nd half is typically when more points are scored, especially in a close game that could go to overtime - IE Heat/Celts game. I don't play unders in close games where the possibly exists of a lot of fouling or OT. Over will save you the stress if you are watching the game too because there have been plenty of overs I've seen happen right as the 4th Q starts.
I think we're coming up with something here... There is a larger advantage to us handicappers in halves because the books have limited time to make these lines. We need to look the numbers are trends and into the endurance and skill of the roster to play a full 48 mins.
i agree mikado. The problem is i work 2 pm to 11 pm and i hardly watch any games. i go by my gut and how theyve been playin the game and the stats at the half. still tweakin the system. i have been watchin lower spreads (ie -2 or -3.5 at the start of the game)to see if those have been losing more but its b een pretty equal. I think your right its more about watching the game but for me its not an option. anyway thanks again. if you have anymore insight let me know. MM
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i agree mikado. The problem is i work 2 pm to 11 pm and i hardly watch any games. i go by my gut and how theyve been playin the game and the stats at the half. still tweakin the system. i have been watchin lower spreads (ie -2 or -3.5 at the start of the game)to see if those have been losing more but its b een pretty equal. I think your right its more about watching the game but for me its not an option. anyway thanks again. if you have anymore insight let me know. MM
go to usatoday.com and look for Sagarin rating, this system work well with NFL and NBA lately. First look for favorite on the road and dog at home. For favorite on the road just simply use the rating and minus the home advantage which is 3.39 today and minus the rating of opponent (dog). if the result is higher than the given line, then take the favorite and if it is lower than take dog at home. again, it's just a system. good luck
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moneymechanic
go to usatoday.com and look for Sagarin rating, this system work well with NFL and NBA lately. First look for favorite on the road and dog at home. For favorite on the road just simply use the rating and minus the home advantage which is 3.39 today and minus the rating of opponent (dog). if the result is higher than the given line, then take the favorite and if it is lower than take dog at home. again, it's just a system. good luck
i agree mikado. The problem is i work 2 pm to 11 pm and i hardly watch any games. i go by my gut and how theyve been playin the game and the stats at the half. still tweakin the system. i have been watchin lower spreads (ie -2 or -3.5 at the start of the game)to see if those have been losing more but its b een pretty equal. I think your right its more about watching the game but for me its not an option. anyway thanks again. if you have anymore insight let me know. MM
I work weird hours too, I try to Tivo games or re-watch them on the internet. There's a few websites that archive the games. Sites like you-tube have clips from a lot of these guys when they were still playing in high school. Knowing the tendencies of the players, coaches, and refs should have more importance than learning the statistics of a team. This is where we find our advantage at half times. I'll be looking into some 2nd half lines tonight in NCAA BB. Thinking about taking the Under 200 in the Knicks game today. Got any plays today? Definitely will be back and update on any 2nd half lines that we can find an edge in.
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Quote Originally Posted by MONEYMECHANIC:
i agree mikado. The problem is i work 2 pm to 11 pm and i hardly watch any games. i go by my gut and how theyve been playin the game and the stats at the half. still tweakin the system. i have been watchin lower spreads (ie -2 or -3.5 at the start of the game)to see if those have been losing more but its b een pretty equal. I think your right its more about watching the game but for me its not an option. anyway thanks again. if you have anymore insight let me know. MM
I work weird hours too, I try to Tivo games or re-watch them on the internet. There's a few websites that archive the games. Sites like you-tube have clips from a lot of these guys when they were still playing in high school. Knowing the tendencies of the players, coaches, and refs should have more importance than learning the statistics of a team. This is where we find our advantage at half times. I'll be looking into some 2nd half lines tonight in NCAA BB. Thinking about taking the Under 200 in the Knicks game today. Got any plays today? Definitely will be back and update on any 2nd half lines that we can find an edge in.
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