Haven't posted much here with my plays, but looking for good analysis on my picks for xmas, as I am fairly confident in these picks and am looking to bet very large. (went 4-0 yest and looking to capitalize big this holiday season to make up for the money lost xmas shopping =P)
Under Lakers/Cavs 194
- I believe this game will be played at a very slow pace, as both teams have slowed down their offenses to accomodate their personnel this year. Matchup-wise, both teams are very similar and can throw very talented defenders at the other teams best players. The Lakers will throw Artest and Kobe (2 premier perimeter defenders) at Lebron all game, and Kobe locked down Lebron in both matchups last year. The Cavs will struggle to score with Lebron being bothered all game, as their offense is predicated on him scoring. On the other side, Lebron is no slouch on defense should spend most of the game covering Kobe, who is struggling with injuries. As kobe did to Lebron, Lebron neutralized Kobe in both matchups last year.
In the front court, the Cavs have the size and physical players to bother the 3 big men of the Lakers, so both teams should struggle to score underneath.
THe only way I see this going over is if both teams shoot lights out from 3-pt range, and judging by the Lakers shooting struggles from beyond the arc, this likelihood of this happening is very unlikely.
Under Boston/Orlando
- line isn't up at my book yet, but it looks like it will be 190. My under play is largely based on Pierce being out and KG back in the lineup. This exchange guarantees a less potent offensive squad by the Celts, yet a much more intimidating defensive unit. The Celtics have no one on their bench remotely close to the offensive game and playmaking ability Pierce brings. Pietrius will likely to chase Ray Allen along the perimeter and should bother him with his length on defense. That leaves alot of the scoring burden on Rondo and KG (who is coming off an injury). I can't see the Celtics scoring more than 90 in this game, and they'll likely realize this and step up defensively.
I worry a bit about the perimeter matchups, as Orlando does have a lot of capable shooters, but Boston is a very good defensive squad and should be able to adjust.
I believe past matchups favor the under as well, as the last 4 have gone under...
I like the under in this game up to around 185.
Under Suns/Clips 211
- I am basing this pick based on the fact that the Clips are just simply a team that struggles to score the ball, especially on the road. They don't have great perimeter shooters (outside of Eric Gordon) and they don't play at a high pace. In most of their recent games, Chris Kaman has been getting the most shots, and that shouldn't change with him matched up against Channing Frye.
There's also the travel factor, as the Clips are road weary and are in the final game of their 5-6 game road trip that spanned the whole country.
There's always the possibility of the Suns going off and scoring ~130 pts. However, I can't see them getting that many offensive possessions in this game to reach 130. After facing a fast and young team in OKC, the Suns will welcome the Clips slower style.
I see the Suns leading early and playing their bench in the 4th with a 20 pt lead. 105-90 score.
Any relevant and useful analysis is welcome. Thanks in advance, and GL tmrw!
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