The -3/-3.5 Trend. Something to keep an eye on?

I'm not sure if this should be considered a real trend, but I was looking at another thread discussing -3/-6/-13 point favorites and it got me to do a little bit of investigating.  This might be nothing, but the numbers are quite interesting in any case.  I posted this another thread, but thought it might be deserving of it's own thread... maybe get some thoughts and opinions...

A) The line goes down

B) The line goes up

C) The line remains the same

Whe the line goes down - When a favorite opens at -3 or -3.5 and the line goes down, the Underdog is 4-1 this season.

When the line goes up - When a favorite opens at -3 or -3.5 and the lines goes up, the favorite is 8-1 this year.

When the line reamins the same - When the line holds steady, the favorites are 4-2 this season.

I think that's pretty interesting.  Aside from when the line remains steady, you're looking at a solid 12-2 record when you like at the line going either up or down.

Milwaukee opened at -3 today and it's dropped to -2.5.  Keep an eye on it.

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Interesting stuff,BUT from which book you take the lines to consider on those plays? I mean , do you take in consideration what Covers has in the matchups as lines ?

You talk about -3/-3.5 lines , yesterday Grizzlies @ Clippers opened at LAC -4 , then went down and Covers has it as LAC -3.5 and they covered. Celtics @ Heat opened at Celtics -4 , Covers has it Celtics -3 for the game and the Celtics covered.

I click on the Rockets @ Thunder line moves played yesterday where the Rockets won,some books opened with Thunder -3.5 , others with Thunder -2.5!!!

I think this interesting stuff has value if you follow a certain's book's line movement.

I 've done some research in Italian League of basketball to see how many games finished -5/+5 points of difference last year considering the lines of 2 different books and the results were not the same.

So,who we have to take in consideration to monitor these line movements ?

He meant, opening lines.

That's the point , you keep track of this trend following one site , otherwise--there are many sites which open with a variant of 0.5-1 points--the stats are gonna be totally different.

It's like when they say a team is 27-18 ATS BUT each time the spread was different.

The last days following some line movements I was thinking that the opening lines to follow are better than the closing ones.I 'm tracking a System in Totals and Spreads and I 've noticed that if a play is Over or Under and the line moves up or down respectively then I have to make the play following the open line.

The same also for the Spread,but this is not so accurate since I keep track of these trends ONLY when I see that the final results and the predictions of the System came up almost even.

In exapmle , Nets @ Lakers Total opened at 190 then jumped up to 194 in some books , the play was still the Over, BUT this one ended at 193 , hopefully some book still had it at 190.5 and took the Over.

Keep tracking all these stats and trends , even if I think that at the end are helping not so much since our perception shows us what to play and not the trends.

If Bell had scored the first free throw in Milwaukee then the Bulls would have had a 3point deficit in the last seconds,lets say that if they miss the 3 then they foul the Bucks which score the free throws and the game end with the Bucks covering.

Anyway,now I 'm scratching my head trying to figure out a System in NHL Totals and NFL as well,but it's too early to judge it.