Posted:
#1
Ive been gambling on the NBA since the 1992 season and for some reason Fridays has consistently been the day of the week where the strangest and most unlikely things happen. I refer to this day as the Mirage day. Its like you sit there and look at the numbers but all you see is a mirage. At the end of the night most things just didn't go as expected so maybe its time to start switching things around and go with the unlikely pics.
I'll go over a few examples for tonights matchups
Scenario #1 San Antonio @ Philly
I look at this games total and notice it opened at a low 191 and now its up to 194 points. I also noticed that these 2 teams played each other about 2 weeks ago and the game ended @ 108-106 =214 points with no overtime. I then ask myself hmmm the over seems like an easy play. Now I looked a little further and seen how these teams play in certain scenarios. I noticed that when San Antonio plays at home they really push the tempo as you look at their results in Dec/Jan @ home their games averaged 199.38 pts a game. I also noticed that San Antonio plays a much slower tempo on the road, they like to grind games out and in Dec/Jan on the road their games averaged 188.75 pts which included an OT game that had 259 points scored in it. I then looked at the Philly home and road scenarios and I found out that Philly at home averaged in Dec/Jan 190.11 pts as opposed to 198.08 a game on the road where they play a more loose style offensive system. So then I averaged what Philly games at home has been with San Antoino games on the road during Dec/Jan and came up with 189.43 pts a game and you have an opening number of 191 points for the over/under in this ballgame. So the point here is that initially looking at the total of this game it looks like an obvious over bet, but looking a bit further the under is the right play IMO. Also you have to look at gameplan, both coaching staffs are most likely putting an emphasis on defense considering these teams played 2 weeks ago and both teams shot the ball over 50%. The line movement has also given an additional 3 points to all under backers so currently the number is sitting @ 194 points at most places.
The crazy part of it all is that with all that being said, this is the
NBA which stands for NO BANK ACCOUNT and anything could happen and I can go on and on about the refs that Olesiak and Salvatore are pretty much even when it comes to over/unders but the 3rd ref Olandis Poole is 11-20 in over unders and Ive seen him work at least 10 games this year, the guy never calls touch fouls and has the mentality of "no blood no foul."
anyways this is just one scenario for tonight I have a few others that I wont go into as much detail but as far as this game I like.
San Antoino @ Philly Under 194 for 5 units
lets see how this goes with "the unlikely pics theory" hopefully it will work out tonight!
I'll post a few others later on....
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