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UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Silva 2 Predictions

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Posted: #1
Last event: 9 - 4
YTD: 64 - 40
2012: 111 - 56

+6% on posted plays (started recording last card)


Cain Velasquez   vs.   Antonio Silva  
Main Event | Title Fight | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

I won't take much time on this as I don't think Silva can win short of landing a hard shot in an exchange.

Prediction - Cain via TKO 1st round. 
 
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Junior Dos Santos   vs.   Mark Hunt  
Co-Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Hunt has the power, chin and technique to give Dos Santos problems on the feet. Even though Junior is 6'4 to Hunt at 5'10, Junior only has 3 inches reach on Hunt. Hunt made a career in kickboxing constantly being the shorter man, fighting at heavyweight he was almost always smaller but found a way to make it work. I acknowledge and respect Juniors over all game but I can't help but think this is not a good match-up for him. Standing and trading with the one striker in the division that has better boxing than you is not a good game-plan, if the plan is to take Hunt down and work Junior's legit brown belt in BJJ then this is probably Junior all day, I question if Junior has the skills or desire to take this to the ground however.

Dos Santos is probably the safer pick based on his youth, speed, power and foot work but I won't pick against my boy Hunt. I won't be betting either so I can fully enjoy however the outcome of this hopefully epic striking battle plays out.

Prediction - Hunt via late 3rd round come from behind over hand right KO. :)
 
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Glover Teixeira   vs.   James Te Huna 
Main Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

I think the god father of sprawl and brawl (Chuck Liddell) will have Glover more than ready for Te Huna's take-down attempts, even if Te Huna gets him down and stays on top for a round he gasses then it's all glover.

Prediction - Glover Teixeira via TKO round 2.
 
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Gray Maynard   vs.   TJ Grant  
Main Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

I think Gray's layoff will be the difference, he has been out for about a year, TJ out-strikes Gray and sprawls his way to a split decision.

Prediction - TJ Grant via split decision.
 
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Donald Cerrone   vs.   KJ Noons  
Main Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Cerrone brought in a sports psychiatrist to help him with the mental part of the game, he has all the skills in the world but has admitted to having problems with forced with pressure in the cage. I don't think Noons is the type of fighter to put the type of pressure on Cerrone to make him wilt. I will stay away from Cerrone fights until he shows me some heart in the cage, I still think he takes this somewhat easily.

Prediction - Cerrone via KO in the 2nd.
 
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Rick Story   vs.   Mike Pyle  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Pyle is tough, can he score a 4th TKO/KO in a row? I'm thinking no.

Prediction - Story via KO in the 3rd.
 
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Dennis Bermudez   vs.   Max Holloway  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Bermudez has above average fight IQ so I fully expect him to take this to the ground early and often. Holloway is 5 inches taller and has a 4 inch reach advantage, Bermudez TKO via ground and pound is the most likely outcome i think but I'll predict the submission.

Prediction - Bermudez via submission in the 1st.
 
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Robert Whittaker   vs.   Colton Smith  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Smith looked really good against Mike Ricci, other than that I don't have a lot to go on with these two. Will stay away and get the note pad out. But when in doubt go with the Airborne Ranger Qualified Infantryman and former Iowa State Greco-roman and freestyle wrestling champion.

Prediction - Smith via UD.

 
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Khabib Nurmagomedov   vs.   Abel Trujillo  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Trujillo impressed me in his UFC debut, defeating Macrus LeVessur. Thing is Levessur is not that good and owns a submission lose inside the UFC to Cody frickin' McKenzie. This is not a step up in competition, it's more like Abel jumped from the bottom step to the second from the top. Tough draw here for the UFC sophomore.

Prediction - Nurmagomedov via submission late in the second, RNC. 
 
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Stephen Thompson   vs.   Nah-shon Burrell  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Burrell gassed hard in his last fight and might have been saved with Yuri mistakenly told the red he couldn't see and the fight was stopped. Thompson was broken by veteran Matt Brown in his last fight via the clinch and take-down attempts. I need to see this guys fight a few more times before I get a good read on either, staying away.

Prediction - Thompson via split decision.
 
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George Roop   vs.   Brian Bowles 
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Brian's two loses are to former champions, Roop does not fall into this category. I think Bowles out classes him.

Prediction - Bowles via TKO round 2.
 
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Jeremy Stephens   vs.   Estevan Payan  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

I can't be bothered to look up footage on Payan and apparently missed his two Strikeforce fights or just don't remember. That being said a quick glance at his record shows me he has never fought anyone on the level of a Jeremy Stephens. Jeremy is on a 3 fight losing streak but was competitive against Cerrone and even took Pettis to a split decision. He will be fighting desperate as a 4th loss in a row is cuts-ville. Another fight I probably won't be betting so I can get a closer look at Payan.

Prediction - Stephens via KO 3rd round.
 
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Posted: #13
Thinking about a  Cain / Glover / Bermudez / Nurmagomedov  4TP for one of my 3 plays on the card.
 
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Posted: #14
3 Team Parlay
9% to win 9%
Cain Velasquez -750
Glover Teixeira -310
Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov -285

Yeah, yeah, payin' the juice I know but at a tiny bit over even money I like this play.
 
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Posted: #15
Betting all heavy favorites... 

I like your strategy.  
 
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Posted: #16
Have you ever even posted a pick, art?
Ill look forward to seeing your picks and plays for 160
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by crowat:

3 Team Parlay
9% to win 9%
Cain Velasquez -750
Glover Teixeira -310
Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov -285

Yeah, yeah, payin' the juice I know but at a tiny bit over even money I like this play.

 

I like this parlay.

 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by crowat:

George Roop   vs.   Brian Bowles 
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Brian's two loses are to former champions, Roop does not fall into this category. I think Bowles out classes him.

Prediction - Bowles via TKO round 2.

 

Great point about Bowles. I was originally going with Bowles, but I don't like his 18month layoff, that's the only thing that worries me. I picked Roop via Decision, but maybe I should avoid putting money on this one. I swear Bowles reminds me of Mark Walberg.

 
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Posted: #19
I got faith in Cain but putting him in a parlay when he is a -750 has no value to me.  All risk no reward.  JDS & Glover combined with another small fav or UD will give you a solid payout.  Just my opinion  




 
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Posted: #20
Nurma missing weight but he still looked fine.  That was quite a shove lol.  Solid predictions, sure hope Colton loses though..
 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
Superb write ups crowat...ty for posting. Gotta admit...it is a great card top to bottom

Love you 3TP...will tail. 

Huge Cerrone fan...hope the cowboy wakes up.

BOL crowat and gl all
 
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Posted: #23
Thanks Vituperate.

let's get it.
 
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Posted: #24
VERY NICE


+15% on posted plays
 
 
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won about $1750 tonight on about 5+ parlays for 4 or more plays. First comma night in a while in MMA.
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