TUF 17 MMA Picks(4 plays)

Pretty excited to get to this card, going for a 5th straight top play(3 untis) 4 plays;

Cat Zingano -120 vs Miesha Tate +100 - absolutely can't wait to see this fight.  Deep down I have so much confidence that this is going to be a wipeout and with this low line  i couldn't wait to get my bet in.  As much as I'd like to see Miesha enter the house opposite Ronda, it just isn't going to happen.  Tate, a great grappler and very tough but breaking her down she doesn't have good striking, very weak on power as her only chance of winning this fight is if she gets a submission.  Watch Zingano, a wickedly strong women who is very dangerous on her feet with her length as a striker and some scary throws.  Cat will dominate this fight on the feet and on the ground, Tate will take a beating.  It may go the distance because Tate is tough but there will be no question as to who wins.

3 units  Cat Zingano -120

Uriah Hall -350 vs Kelvin Gastelum +280 - i can admit Hall has sick standup, and he's shown he can punish people with hard strikes.  When it comes down to it though, Kelvin is a rising star, perfect, no losses and from what i see getting better and better.  The highlight KO's must have made this line because how do you make a young striker more than 3-1 agaisnt a strong grappler who's never lost?  Gastelum comes forward and won't be denied, Uriah will have to fight off his back and i don't see it going well for him.  I didn't see Kelvin manhandling Samman but he did and that makes me think this fight will be similar.  Gastelum goes in there and just goes to work, he won't be afraid of Hall  and he won't sit back and get picked apart.  Kelvin will win this and i don't think it will be close.

2 units Kelvin Gastelum +280

Jimmy Quinlan -110 vs Dylan Andrews -110 - i have my doubts about Quinlan, he doesn't seem like the "fighter-type" to me from watching him on the show.  He can definitely grapple but that won't keep you fighting if you don't have grit determination and you don't evolve your game by adding more skills.  As for Andrews, we know this guy is a real fighter, and from his experience on the show, he now has a greater confidence in his game.  I think he can negate Quinlan from taking him down and holding him for the majority of the fight.  As the fight wears on, I see Andrews picking him apart and finishing him in with strikes standing or on the ground.

2 units Dylan Andrews -110

Luke Barnatt -130 vs Collin Hart +110 - seriously, this looks like a mismatch to me.  Standing, Barnatt will destroy Hart but the question is can Hart take Luke down and hold him there.  I don't think so, Barnatt is just too strong,  I think he will get up quickly if he gets taken down and that should wear on Hart.  Collin still developing but I saw really poor defense on his feet and he really has no choice but to immediately clinch and go for takedowns.  Since the line is lower than expected, I have to be on this as Luke is the much better fighter.

2 units  Luke Barnatt -130

"opinions" on other fights;

Maximo Blanco -200 vs Sam Sicilia +180 - seen Blanco fight numerous times, always felt like he got more praise than he was owed.  Now he does have a nice arsenal of strikes but he's too reckless for my taste and the competition he fought against wasn't very good in japan compared to the states where he's gone 0-2 lately.  Sicilia is aggressive and packs some power,he's got good movement and I think he can beat the bigger Blanco.  Odds are really closer to even so i'll go with Sicilia with the nice price to win this.

Travis Browne -280 vs Gabriel Gonzaga +240 - i have my concerns here for Travis, knocked out in his last fight he's got a pretty tough fight here.  Gonzaga has come back to the UFC and put together a little win streak(3) and he has the tools to win this fight for sure.  Browne must shake off his last fight in more ways than one, the injury and the hesitant striking that left him open to be hit.  I think this will go to the mat often and i will lean to Browne but not too confidently.

Urijah Faber -500 vs Scott Jorgensen +400 - great opportunity for Jorgensen getting a main event against a big name.  Still, not excited about this fight as the line is so high, but rightfully so - Faber is too fast and he will have no problem beating Jorgensen.  This is one of those fights where, one guy is just better and there's no real scenario where i can see an upset.

good luck with your plays,

boldtiger