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UFC 153

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Posted: #1
***************************************************************
                               Record
***************************************************************
Posted Plays 4-8 (+3.5u) 
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Would Take (5-3)
Like (1-6)
Love (2-1)
****************************************************************


UFC 153
==========
Luiz Cane
++++++++++
southpaw
Muay Thai/jits
aggressive
decent striker 
jits ???
doesn't really jab ???
weak tdd ???
suspect chin 

Chris Camozzi
++++++++++++++
southpaw
grappler
avg striking 
lacks striking combos
bad strking tech.
ok leg kicks
ok jits 
weak tdd 
good chin 
good cardio 

i would take cane via dec/tko
i would take > 2.5 rds


Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
boxer/jits
good striking
good boxing tech.
plus jits
good guard
good sweeps from guard
good gnp
td???
avg tdd???
suspecct chin 
good cardio 

Dave herman
++++++++++++++
striker
good striker ???
assortment of strikes; unpredictable
good knees from thai clinch
< avg tdd ???
guard ???
suspect chiin 
weak cardio ???

i would take nog via ko/tko/sub
i would take < 1.5 rds


Jon Fitch
++++++++++
grappler/grinder
ok striking 
good @ striking to close dist. for td
good td 
good @ catching body kicks for td
> avg tdd 
good cardio 
good top position 
good gnp activity; not hard shots though ???
suspect chin ???
good @ getting up from td 
good sub d

Erick Silva
++++++++++++
switches stance (southpaw/ortho)
muay thai/jits
good striker
good kicks (body/legs) 
good td ???
good gnp 
good jits
good top control 
< avg tdd ???
guard ???
chin ???
< avvg cardio ???
grapplers gas him out ???

i would take fitch via dec
i would take the > 2.5 rds


FABIO MALDONADO
+++++++++++++++++++++
Boxing
aggressive
plus boxer
accurate punches
good strikes from the clinch
iron chin
> avg trips from the clinch 
< avg tdd 
> avg guard
good cardio ???

Glover Teixeira
+++++++++++++++++
striker/jits
aggressive
good striker
hits hard
one punch ko power
good td 
good jits 
good top control
good gnp
guard ???
avg tdd ???
acosta put him on his knee w/ punch
suspect chin ???

i like glover via dec/sub/tko
i would take > 2.5 rds


Demian Maia
+++++++++++++
boxing/jits
southpaw
> avg striking 
prodominatley throws power hand (left)
doesn't use jab hand (right)
lack of thrown combos
sloppy striking tech.
plus jits 
good top control 
good guard
pulls guard
ok clinch td & trips
< avg tdd ???
suspect chin 
cardio ???

Rick Story
++++++++++++
striker/wrestler
southpaw
aggressive 
ok striker
good body punches
good wrestling
decent td 
> avg tdd ???
> avg jits ???
good top control 
decent gnp 
avg guard 
good chin 

i would take story via dec
i like the > 2.5 rds

Stephan Bonnar
+++++++++++++++++
switch stance (ortho/south)
muay thai /jits
> avg striker 
looks stiff striking
> avg td ???
weak tdd 
ok jits 
avg guard 
good chin 
ok cardio ???

Anderson Silva
=================
muay thai/jits
switch stance (ortho/south)
plus striker
precise striking accuracy
plus clinch strikes 
good leg kicks
throw strikes from all angles
hard hitter
good jits
plus gnp
good guard
active guard
avgv td ???
> avg tdd ???
plus chin
good head movement
evasive abilty 
plus cardio 

i like silva via tko/ko/sub/dec
I would take < 1.5 rds


couldn't resist holding back from the fam
tail away
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
IIt's amazing that you put all this work into the fights for everyone.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

IIt's amazing that you put all this work into the fights for everyone.

i would be lying if i said i didn't do it for myself, but i do enjoy sharing these notes.
 
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Posted: #4
silva/fitch a toughie.........before even capping this fight i would have thought silva would have been a an easy -200+, so i was caught off guard seeing this fight open as a pk'em basically. what was i missing out on ??? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

the more i think about this fitch/silva fight the more i want to pick silva. after watching all the footy on silva i noticed that he got taken down a lot and that he gassed vs grapplers easily. fitch is a grinder maybe even president of that club. can he take silva down ? yeah i think so. can he take a silva high kick ? i don't know after seeing get ko'd so quick vs hendrix. but other than that flash ko and the pierce punch he's shown a pretty good chin. is that enough to make me pick fitch as the winner.

i still dont really know..... grapplers vs strikers fights used to be skewed towards grapplers. i think its going the other way now. 

i might change my pick. 


 
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Posted: #5
I have a play on silva already. I haven't taken notes for quite sometime but I when he fought brennenan I noted he stuffed TDs pretty easily. Keeping in mind Fitch is a better wrestler than Charlie. I think silva will continue to amaze

I have to think nog can take a Herman shot in stride and get a TD and sub fairly easily He has taken a lot of shots before with ease

If you like story that line has been gettin better. Tough to call for me. Tough to gauge Maia on his last fight
 
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Posted: #6
i think maia is overrated. knowing when to place a bet is tough. with story i can see some late money coming in on him evening the odds. i think by weigh-ins silva's odds will be around -160. 


what i'm thinking
=============
parlay -105
=============
anderson
nog
glover
 
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Posted: #7
Glover and Nog are money.  
 
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Posted: #8
im changing my pick: lol

i would take silva via tko/ko/sub/dec
i would take < 2.5 rds
 
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Posted: #9
erick silva -120 (2.4u for 2u)

rick story +120 (2u for 2.4u)

Parlay +138 (1u for 1.3u)
===================
anderson
glove
nog
phil


*these are the only fights i'm betting on other than the cane/camozzi fight and maybe tibau/trinaldo. i'm adding more units to the parlay tmrw.
 
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Posted: #10
i think silva is too fast for fitch and has more ways to win. also, i have a feeling that the ref isnt going to let jon lay and fitch the fight and will keep it standing as much as possible, ala belfort/rumble. also, jon has had injuries the last year(shoulder/knee)and there is a good chance he wont be 100 percent fighting in brazil. he was also losing the penn fight until bj gassed.
 
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Posted: #11
And Fitch has been very inactive. Even his one fight of late was over quick and he didn't get into it
 
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Posted: #12
i think fitch's chin is on the downslide, and it's going to get tested against this superior striker.
 
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Posted: #13

fitch recent bad-mouthing of the ufc regarding who gets title shots and who doesnt probably doesnt sit to well with dana either.

i cant see jon getting a decision in brazil if the fight is close and i dont see dana and the ref condoning jon doing the fitch for 15 minutes. danas pretty high on silva and for good reason as hes pretty exciting. the guy has some youtube video fighting in the rain. agree with wipton that this line is going to go up.

 
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Posted: #14
I think Johny started Fitch's downturn.  Silva will push him down further.  I see him only having four fights left before he retires.
 
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Posted: #15
erick silva -130 it has begun...


Parlay (2u for 2.9u)
==============
anderson
silva
glover
 
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Posted: #16
monday madness and this turkey im about to eat have taken control of me....double that play up

Parlay (4u for 5.8u)
==============
anderson
silva
glover

let's get it
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Slovak:

Erick Sliva is my biggest play on MMA ever.

I grabbed him as a dog and have even more on him as a fav. I have a little over $700 on him. Been placing small amounts on him for the last month.

 
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Posted: #18
Yeah I thought I remembered Silva easily avoiding the takedowns in that one as well, but Brenneman did get him down a couple times.. he failed on a few, but the ones that he did get he actually didn't have to work too hard for.

Still, like you guys have said Fitch might be on a slight downslide, dropped the first 2 rounds to BJ Penn and then got KO'd in 12 seconds, while Silva's looking like a killer and in a great spot here, think he'll take it  
 
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Posted: #19
lines are out... tibeau and cane's odds dont look too bad 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by whipton:

lines are out... tibeau and cane's odds dont look too bad 


Tibau has really good value, as for Cane/Camozzi; coin flip fight, value's on the dog.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



Tibau has really good value, as for Cane/Camozzi; coin flip fight, value's on the dog.

not a coin flip to me 
 
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Posted: #22
My Plays
=========

erick silva -120 (2.4u for 2u)

rick story +120 (2u for 2.4u)

Parlay +138 (4u for 5.3u)
===========================
anderson
glove
nog
phil

Parlay (4u for 5.8u)
=====================
anderson
silva
glover

Parlay (1u for 1.8u)
===================
tibau
cane

Hail Mary (0.2u for 15.6u)
===========================
anderson
glove
nog
phil
silva
story
rony
brandao
cane
sergio
tibau

 
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Posted: #23
My Plays
=========

erick silva -120 (2.4u for 2u)

rick story +120 (2u for 2.4u)

Parlay +138 (4u for 5.3u)
===========================
anderson
glove
nog
phil

Parlay (4u for 5.8u)
=====================
anderson
silva
glover

Parlay (1u for 1.8u)
===================
tibau
cane

Hail Mary (0.2u for 15.6u)
===========================
anderson
glove
nog
phil
silva
story
rony
brandao
cane
sergio
tibau


 
 
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Posted: #24
im still 50/50 with this story maia fight .... story could deff knock him out if it stays standing but if maia gets it down he takes it ... thats a tough 1
 
 
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Posted: #25
Looks like another big night is in store for you Whip.  Get em!
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