UFC on Fox 3: Longshot props

2012 MMA Record: 25-48 (-22.13u)

Palhares by KO/TKO +2485
2u to win 49.7u

Pat Barry by sub +1255
2u to win 25.1u

Koscheck/Hendricks draw +5500
0.5u to win 27.5u

Palhares/Belcher draw +7500
0.5u to win 37.5u

Pat Barry ITD -130
2.6u to win 2u

Pat Barry -200
4u to win 2u

Johny Hendricks -120
2.4u to win 2u

Dodson + Denis + Vemola
1u to win 1.95u

Chandler + Mayweather + Jim Miller
2.5u to win 2u


I'm still WTF'ing at that Palhares TKO line.  Alot of people are thinking this is an insta-sub for Palhares once it hits the ground, but he's shown solid ground and pound in the past and has good power standing.  Belcher is known as a guy who gets hit alot.  Wouldn't be all that surprised if Palhares smokes Belcher with a head kick or pounds him out from top position.

Loving Barry in his fight, I think he'll stand with Lavar and utilize his speed advantage, outland Lavar until he's gassed, then maybe switch it up with a trip from the clinch or something.  The guy wants to show his passion for that area of the game, this is the opponent to try it on.  Pound on a gassed Lavar until he gives his back, Barry by RNC   Or, Barry knocks him out standing and tries to slap on an armbar while he's unconscious, lol.

Hendricks looks like a good play for obvious reasons.  Hungrier, knockout power, solid wrestling, and yeah this fight just makes you think of Paulo Thiago knocking out Koscheck.  Kos will have to go all-out with his wrestling to take this one. 

And as the 2 draw plays, I could see either Kos or Palhares winning 2 out of 3 rounds but losing a point along the way, Palhares for obvious reasons, and maybe Kos finally loses a point for sticking his hands out there like he does.  Probably no value in those, just trying something different.

Good luck though everyone, looks like a fun card

I hope you catch a big one, but hopefully not at my expense.

I love dodson and denis and I think i may hit those two hard - i do have them in a 3 parlay with linekar

Good luck. I'm on that palhares prop for a unit myself!

Holy crap, that's a great line on Palhares by (T)KO at +2485.  Doubt it happens... but still... great payout!

It's at +1200 now.

Nice sawman GL dude, both solid undercard favs   I'm a little unsure about Vemola now, we'll see..

CTown thanks, GL to you too, I'm due to hit one of these damn props soon.  Hope we hit that one

Sirchadwick, yeah I couldn't believe it, insane line!!  It went down to +2100 right after I bet, and the next day was still up at +2030  

Dude you were so close to that Barry sub
Thought u had it

actually, he was much closer on the 55-1 hendricks/kos draw.

kos looked much worse for wear but that 3rd round shouldve been even. johhny took the standup but kos secured the td and top position.

kudos to hendricks. he comes to ktfo or get ktfo trying.

Yep, really wish Lavar tapped there, so close.  Barry looked like complete shit though, wtf was that about

And yeah I figured Hendricks/Kos was going to be a ridiculously close fight, ah well.

Hopefully I can pick up some wins on the next card, because this is getting very ugly!

oh man so close on that barry sub, if he practiced any ground game for like 10 minutes he woulda got the sub