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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 145
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/16/2012 11:22:28 PM

This is a great card. Not many odds are out yet, but here's some prelim thoughts:

Jones/Evans - I think Jones finishes Rashad. Probably by strikes

Mills/Rory MacDonald - I will definitely play MacD inside the distance. probably a sub

Rothwell/Schaub - Schaub should win... But... he lost the exchanges with Big Nog. And he's going to find himself in the same situation with a guy who can take a lot of shots. Rothwell might tag him. Rothwell ITD might be +400. Not sure on that one yet

Hominick/Yagin. what? -750-800?.... I lost big on Hominick last time. I might take the +550 

Bocek/Alessio - Bocek will win this for sure. He may pull off a sub, but he's been fighting some boring, safe, controlling fights. He'll find a way to win even if its decision

Torres/McDonald - I think the young phenom wins. Probably dramatic fashion

Browne/Griggs - leanin Browne. I think he's a class better

Brown/Thompson - I will also definitely bet Thompson ITD

Makdessi/Njokuani - I think Njokuani should be a fav in this fight. The fight should stay on the feet and Njukuani should have a good reach advantage. He has some crisp stand up. i think he can keep him on the outside

danzig/escudero - Mac has looked real impressive even in his losses. i think he wants it more. should be a little stronger and maybe a little more well rounded. I like danzig. probably by decision

I have several previous parlays with Jones at -500, Rory Mac at -500, Michael Mac at +110 and even $... But nothing yet specific to this event

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#2
Posted: 4/17/2012 12:48:12 PM
This should be a great card.  I really like McDonald to make Torres look old and worn.  I also like Thompson and Blanco.  I haven't done much in-depth handicapping yet.  I hope Rashad wins.  I really dislike Jones.
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#3
Posted: 4/18/2012 1:19:08 AM
Rory Mac ITD

I agree with almost all of these actually, but I couldn't stop myself from making a small play on Rashad!
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7MrG7
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#4
Posted: 4/18/2012 1:02:55 PM
To avoid laying the big odds, I am considering taking a 3 or 4 fight parlay for a small play. What do you think of:

UFC
Jones (-500)
MacDonald (-500)
McDonald (-110)
BELLATOR
Aoki (+180)

The 3 UFC fight payout = x1.88
The 3 + Aoki payout=x6.70

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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 4/18/2012 3:14:50 PM

my first play is rory (-500, i think this line only gets worse), bones (-450), bocek (-450, this line got worse, so i jumped on it)... $100 wins $80

7mrG7... i like the UFC plays... not sure about the aoki fight yet

CTM, I'm glad we're thinking alike. But I can't give you my best wishes on Rashad. I THINK  the only way rashad wins is if he catches jones and wobbles him. he's been fighting smart fights. he'll have to be more aggressive to get his way inside, and that also means putting himself at risk

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7MrG7
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#6
Posted: 4/18/2012 5:53:50 PM
Thanks for the feedback Sawman.

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#7
Posted: 4/18/2012 6:48:07 PM
lets get the 
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#8
Posted: 4/19/2012 10:21:07 AM

all lines out now, so locked in another parlay:

danzig (-200), Browne (-260), Rory (-550), Bocek (-450)  $80 wins $160

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#9
Posted: 4/19/2012 12:09:56 PM
i think you guys are really overrating michael mcdonald. experience, competition level, overall skillset (except for striking) goes to torres.

anyone else remember how tired mcdonald was after a round of grappling with figueroa? how do you think he's going to be able to handle a round of grappling at miguel torres' pace? i don't see it happening.

i really think miguel torres is gonna take that fight, either by decision or sub.
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rated91 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#10
Posted: 4/20/2012 1:06:40 AM
^ @ 7mrg I dont like the Aoki bet at all, I think Alvarez is too strong, fast and wont get caught again in this revenge match. 

A good dog would be Rothwell +200. He hits hard, hasn't fought in the UFC in nearly a year and is facing a capable heavy with a glass chin. That's a small bet.

I think it's safe to lay the -450 on Jon Jones. Unload on this play as there is no way he loses this one.
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#11
Posted: 4/20/2012 3:32:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rated91:

^ @ 7mrg I dont like the Aoki bet at all, I think Alvarez is too strong, fast and wont get caught again in this revenge match. 

A good dog would be Rothwell +200. He hits hard, hasn't fought in the UFC in nearly a year and is facing a capable heavy with a glass chin. That's a small bet.

I think it's safe to lay the -450 on Jon Jones. Unload on this play as there is no way he loses this one.


Shut up please
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#12
Posted: 4/20/2012 3:32:30 AM
GL sawman
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#13
Posted: 4/21/2012 3:12:10 AM
Hope you cash some of those parlays. Any straight bets for the night?
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#14
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:11:28 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by The_HOFF:

Hope you cash some of those parlays. Any straight bets for the night?

i rarely straight bet in MMA for anything more than -200, and for sure -250. half the time in the past, i've loaded up on a for sure -300 to -500, i've been burned

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#15
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:20:15 AM

updated card:

i am really not liking the Rory or Bones ITD #s, so no plays yet

Rory, sub of night $10 wins $70

Danzing/Browne/Bocek/Rory  $80 wins $160

Bocek/Rory/Jones  $100 wins $79

Browne/Njokuani  $50 wins $49

hominick/browne/rory  $50 wins $44

blanco/danzig/browne  $40 wins $74

heres a couple old parlays that will be in play tonight

Rory/JDS  $100 wins $80 (... I guess I have Rory SU now!!)

rory/Michael McDonald/Jones/Belfort  $100 wins $270

Santos(no action)/rory/gustaffson/jones/michael McDonald  $20 wins $79

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#16
Posted: 4/21/2012 7:56:44 PM

couple small ones

danzig (down to -140)/thompson/jones/hominick  $20 wins $49

rory under 1.5 rounds  $40 wins $30 (-135)

have fun fellas - have to pvr the fights now and get to them later. hopefully i can catch up to live action at some point

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#17
Posted: 4/21/2012 8:16:04 PM
Nice first for Danzig.  

Pulling for you!  
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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#18
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:06:49 PM

note to self: don't lay -500 on Hominick two fights in a row... or ever!... bad decision perhaps, but yagin did KO him duece.

Rothwell ITD  $10 wins $30

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#19
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:13:20 PM
zing!
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#20
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:22:35 PM
UNDER DOGS BUDDY
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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#21
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:59:26 PM

Bones ITD $40 wins $18

yes!!!! this is gonna be fuckin awesome!

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