GCAD's plays

I did not post my plays in time for UFC 111, so I will not count the profits. I recently lost 1.25u at Strikeforce Challengers. For now on I will make my updates on this thread.

x < -200: 8-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 9-4 69%
EVEN = x = +200: 3-5-1 38%
+200 < x: 0-2 0%

2010 YTD: 10.91u

UFN 21:

Roy Nelson 3u to win 1.1u (-270 via 5dimes)
Only decent chance Struve has is to submit Nelson from his back, which is very unlikely given Nelson's grappling skills. Nelson has shown that he can get inside on big men and pound their faces (Schaub, Imes, haven't seen Rothwell/Nelson fight but you get the idea), and Struve is easier to hit then the 3 I just listed. Struve's stamina isn't good enough to have a serious advantage late against Big Country. I'm not sure if Struve can get off his back if Nelson is on top of him. Not really much value left at this point, maybe arbers will push Nelson below -300 but it's doubtful.

Ross Pearson 3u to win 1.58u (-190 via Bookmaker)
Siver opened at +235 at the lower limits and was bet down in a hurry. Siver has developed better hands but he still throws a lot of looping hooks that a striker like Pearson will guage better compared to Paul Kelly. Pearson is better than Siver in all areas (besides kicks, including spinning back kicks to the body for KO's) and will stay busier than Siver if this fight goes the distance. I'd still make a small play on Pearson at the current lines.

Jorge Rivera .6u to win 1.59u (+265 via Bookmaker)
I talked about this one earlier, Quarry is the better fighter but his stamina looked terrible against Credeur. If Rivera gets an opening he could defeat the fading Quarry, although Rivera is has been fading himself. I like Rivera for a smaller play at the current lines.

Jason High 1u to win .79u (-127 via Bookmaker)
Pounced on this line immediately although I forgot to tweet about it. High has faced fierce competition in DREAM and Affliction while Brenneman has stuck to the Pennsylvania local circuit. From the tape I've seen on Brenneman I don't see his wrestling controlling High, who's also a great wrestler. High is the quicker and more explosive striker. I'd probably stay away at the current lines.

Gerald Harris .7u to win .52u (-135 via 5dimes)
Harris was overvalued when the lines first opened but at this time I think he is undervalued. Miranda is a slick BJJ blackbelt who has greco-roman experience, but his standup is extremely lacking and will cover up and backpedal when he senses an onslaught. Harris in my opinion has the wrestling skills to stay on the feet and explosive hands that will do serious damage against a weak striker. His Greg Jackson training should have him better prepared for this fight, as he was very gun-shy in his UFC debut. The line is the lowest its been and definitely has value. Only .7u because I am not completely comfortable with his sub defense.

Good luck everyone

BOL bro.. I agree with most of your leans, but probably won't be playing any besides Pearson and possibly Jason High. I wouldn't touch Rivera though, just my friendly advice. Cardio will not be a factor in this one..

Although I like Struve as a fighter, I agree that Nelson will be too experienced from him. Just hard to lay nearly 3 to 1 against such a dangerous opponent. May look into a small parlay with Pearson/Nelson

I also made a last minute play on Caol Uno for .4u at +280...bad decision . This will be factored in
Caol Uno .4u to win 1.13u (+280 via 5dimes) L

x < -200: 9-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 11-5 69%
EVEN = x = +200: 3-5-1 38%
+200 < x: 1-3 25%

UFN 21 Result: +3.39u
2010 YTD: 15.55u

Some quick thoughts:

Been pretty busy, I'm sure everyone has moved on to 112 preparation by now.

Nelson/Struve: I wonder what protocol is if the power went off in the middle of the fight. Struve needs to start covering his face, even if his head is in the clouds, his opponents always land when they reach for the sky.

Gomi/Florian: A lot of yall cleaned up on Florian (well done)...I was having a tough time gauging how much Gomi's speed had deteriorated before UFN 21. But after the first 2 minutes it was apparent that Florian was going to be the victor.

Rivera/Quarry: From the line movement it looks like there was little action on this fight...very surprising to me.

Did Rivera really trade sponsorship money for "Free Weezy"?

I think most people had a great night on Wed. Congrats !!!

Picks are tweeted @guidaclayallday before they are made.

Great picks.  What're your thoughts on Roy Nelson?  Some people on the forum say Mir/Nelson may be a fight?  I thought it was silly at first but the heavyweight division is boring to me and I see little talent there.  I guess that fight might draw some interest. Maybe they could sell it.I wonder if Mir would take a payday to fight him or would he be to embarrassed to do it?   Opinion??

Might be a long night for the pretty boy!

 

No shame in fighting Roy anybody who knows about MMA should know Roy has been a force in the HW division....It didnt make sense to me why they made Roy go through tuf to make the UFC when they put Big Ben in the UFC, even though Roy already beat him for the IFL belt.  I knew going into tuf Roy was gonna win it, and I didnt understand why Rampage and Dana were acting like they never heard of the guy.

Roy vs Gabe would also be a good match up or Roy vs. Kongo, or against any other top 10 HW. (not top 4 yet JDS, Cain, Brock, Carwin)

Sorry guys, did not get to post picks in time for 112, so I won't be counting the results in the YTD. I was having a monster day until the Penn loss, and after Anderson's win I finished up 2.1u

Pecador, I don't know Frank Mir personally but I doubt he would say no to a fight because of potential embarrassment. Like doctor was saying, until Nelson loses, he deserves to fight better Heavyweight competition, although I do not give him a chance against Cain, JDS, Lesnar, and Carwin.

I actually think Nelson/Kongo would be an intriguing match that could definitely happen given the minimal damage both of them endured in their previous matches.

2010 YTD: +15.55u
Favs: 20-5
Dogs: 4-8-1

Strikeforce: Nashville

Shinya Aoki: .33u to win .42u (+130 via bookmaker)

Very high variance fight, due to the unpredictability I do not want to risk a lot. I think Aoki has underrated skills in terms of latching on to his opponents that many jiu-jitsu fighters are lacking. Aoki is losing some of his advantages by coming to the U.S., but at +130 (should have waited) I will throw a little on him as I think there is a good chance for a sub. I wouldn't recommend a big play either way.

Gegard Mousasi: 3.5u to win 1.45u (-240 via bookmaker)
I jumped the gun here too, but I think King Mo is overrated in this spot. He has great wrestling but Mousasi trumps Lawal everywhere else, in terms of handspeed, variety of strikes, footwork, endurance, submissions, you name it. Mousasi is also very strong for his size. Mousasi is too quick and evasive to get KO'd by Mo, I actually think there's a much better chance that Mousasi KO's Lawal, but Mo really hasn't been cleanly tagged yet so this is difficult to determine.

The wrestling isn't enough for Mo to win a 5 round fight IMO, especially considering it's a pain to hold Mousasi down (see Mousasi/Soko, Mousasi/Jacare, Mousasi/Lombard...people may have different opinions of these fights, but this is what I take from them)

2010 YTD: +15.55u
Favs: 20-5
Dogs: 4-8-1

Strikeforce: Nashville

Shinya Aoki: .33u to win .42u (+130 via bookmaker)

Very high variance fight, due to the unpredictability I do not want to risk a lot. I think Aoki has underrated skills in terms of latching on to his opponents that many jiu-jitsu fighters are lacking. Aoki is losing some of his advantages by coming to the U.S., but at +130 (should have waited) I will throw a little on him as I think there is a good chance for a sub. I wouldn't recommend a big play either way.

Gegard Mousasi: 3.5u to win 1.45u (-240 via bookmaker)
I jumped the gun here too, but I think King Mo is overrated in this spot. He has great wrestling but Mousasi trumps Lawal everywhere else, in terms of handspeed, variety of strikes, footwork, endurance, submissions, you name it. Mousasi is also very strong for his size. Mousasi is too quick and evasive to get KO'd by Mo, I actually think there's a much better chance that Mousasi KO's Lawal, but Mo really hasn't been cleanly tagged yet so this is difficult to determine.

The wrestling isn't enough for Mo to win a 5 round fight IMO, especially considering it's a pain to hold Mousasi down (see Mousasi/Soko, Mousasi/Jacare, Mousasi/Lombard...people may have different opinions of these fights, but this is what I take from them)

Mousasi/Aoki Nice Av Clay

Strikeforce: Nashville Results: -3.83u
2010 YTD: +11.72u

Favs: 20-6
Dogs: 4-9-1

Aoki/Melendez: Good bet sizing, but probably not a +EV wager. I should have paid more attention to the rematch of Melendez/Ishida where Melendez was on point in terms of preventing Ishida from taking him down. That being said, I thought Aoki would be on another level in terms of ensnaring body extremities. He did have a full 25 minutes to work with, but every time Melendez was in trouble, he positioned Aoki uncomfortably against the cage which was very good strategy on Melendez's part.

Not that it means much, but I noted Aoki did a decent job slipping punches on the feet, and even landed a straight left!  (I'm sure Melendez was giggling inside)

Mousasi/Lawal: Very shocked that Lawal was able to successfully takedown Mousasi over and over in rounds 3, 4, and 5...as he looked like his tank was empty at the end of round 2....I would think exhausted wrestlers would have less success with takedowns as the fight goes on, rather than more success. Also was wondering if Lawal could only see out of 1 eye for the last round or 2. I overlooked the fact that Mousasi's endurance wasn't ready to handle 5 rounds either. Very disappointed with the lost wager here , I thought Mousasi would be more evasive and he wasn't.

Mayhem vs Diaz Bros: As stupid as it was for Mayhem to get that close to Shields when interrupting the post-fight interview, it was 100x more stupid for the Cesar Gracie camp to explode like they did. It doesn't matter if you grew up in Stockon, CA...push Mayhem out of the way but don't resort to a 3 to 8 vs 1 gang beatdown. I would love to see the UFC cut Nate Diaz, because it would make Strikeforce look stupid for keeping Nick Diaz around (can't afford to cut him), possibly picking up Nate, and even though Shields and Melendez weren't that involved in the brawl, it would shed negative light on them as well.

And still, Mayhem has only been KO'd once in his career

I decreased my unit size accordingly and am ready for WEC 48.

2010 YTD: +11.72u

Favs: 20-6
Dogs: 4-9-1

WEC 48

Antonio Banuelos .7u to win 1.75u (+250 via Bodog)
Baneulos has very fast hands and is constantly on the move, which provides eye candy for the judges in a close match. He has the wrestling skills to keep it on the feet, so i really don't see the rematch being a different fight from the 1st one, as Banuelos still has the faster and more accurate hands. I think a lot of the public is on Jorg's tip after that last submission win. At 2.5 to 1, Banelos can win by decision and almost won by KO last time. His style of fighting is tiring but the chances of his endurance costing him the fight doesn't justify holding off on this good line. Line may even get a little better but it's doubtful.

Takeya Mizugaki 1.33u to win 1.02u (-130 via sportsbook)
Mizugaki's striking is not as crisp as one might think, especially since he's known for 5 rounds of toe-2-toe action against Torres, but since it is going to be difficult for Yahya to take the thicker Miz to the ground, this is Miz's fight to lose. Yahya has been working on his stand up but at -130 (and now at -145) I believe a Miz bet is +EV, as he will likely outlast Yahya on the feet or on the ground, as Miz is rarely on his back and he's never been subbed.

Jose Aldo 3u to win 1.15u (-280 via sportsbook)
I got on late but I think anything under -350 is +EV, although it's doubtful the line will get that high. Faber will struggle to take Aldo down similar to how Mike Brown struggled. Aldo is very strong and displayed excellent takedown defense technique against Brown. All of Aldo's arsenal of strikes are crisper than Faber's. Even though both Aldo and Faber has superb reaction speed and evasive skills, Aldo is considerably larger and longer (I'm talking real life, not tale of the tape) than Faber and this will benefit here.

Faber by decision is the only realistic way I see him winning, and I don't see him being able to outstrike or takedown Aldo.

I plan on making one more bet tomorrow.

Looks about right for tomorrow night.

GL

Shane Roller .75u to win .68u (-110 via 5dimes)
I waited but I haven't seen it dip under -110. Wanted to take him under -150 and I'm happy he's gotten this low. Njokuani has terrible takedown defense. Benson went to town with takedowns and Horodecki, who has average takedowns at best, was almost able to up-end Njokuani. I don't see Njokuani him putting up the same fight against takedowns like Castillo did, as the cornerstone of Roller's MMA game is his wrestling shot.

Thanks guys Good Luck everyone, enjoy the fights

WEC 48: +2.15u
2010 YTD: +13.87u

Favs: 22-6
Dogs: 4-10-1

Scotty J title shot for the Alaskan

 

Wish I would have tailed you here GCA. I have got wrapped up in the Njokuani hype twice now, once here and the other time when he fought Henderson. Shame because i like watching Njoukani and think he has a future in MMA, but after this fight he has quite a way to go yet.

2010 YTD: +13.87u

Favs: 22-6
Dogs: 4-10-1

Strikeforce:Heavy Artillery


Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza: 3.5u to win .7u (-500 via sportsbook)

If Jacare gets this to the ground, Villasenor will not be able to do anything worthy in the judges eyes. Jacare's becoming a slicker striker with every fight and Villasenor will struggle closing the distance while avoiding the clinch.

Good luck tonight.

Strikeforce:Heavy Artillery +.7u
2010 YTD: +14.57u
Favs: 23-6
Dogs: 4-10-1

Jacare/Villasenor: Joey Villasenor has great submission defense. Not sure why it wasn't 30-27 across the board. Muted my TV in the 3rd round after I heard one of the Strikeforce broadcast members say something about the fight being close. Didn't need to listen to that nonsense.

With 4:05 left to go in the 2nd round of Gracie/Randleman, I was happy to hear this:

Frank Shamrock: "What's funny is (Roger Gracie's) style of punching just popped into my head, he's punching like Nick Diaz."
Gus Johnson: "Yes he is. I'd see why that would pop into your head, HE LANDED ON YOUR HEAD in your fight!"
(I think Mauro Ronallo): "LOLOLOLOLOLOL"

I chuckled.

2010 YTD: +13.87u

Favs: 22-6
Dogs: 4-10-1

Bellator Fighting Championships 19

Dan Hornbuckle: 5u to win 1.11u (-450 via 5dimes)

Hornbuckle is as well-rounded as they come. Carl has said that his leg will never get better than 75% after a horrific car accident a few years ago, where doctors said he would never fight again. Whether this is true or not, he definitely seemed to be lacking "spring" from his legs in his last fight, and doesn't seem to have the quick "in & out" ability to effectively deal with Hornbuckle's size. I don't usually go 10% of my roll often, but I can't see Hornbuckle losing.

Ryan Thomas: .25u to win 1u (+400 via Bodog)
Askren has great wrestling credentials but his stand up skills are non-existent (starting his wrestling shot from the 4th row against Thomas in the first fight) and he still is recovering from a dislocated finger, which was unknown to the public until he admitted it after the fight. His MMA endurance has never been tested, and his submission awareness still needs work from the tape that I've seen. Askren's price is way too high for any consideration IMO. You can get Thomas for better than +400 now, and I believe it's worth a small play.

Favs: 23*-6

I wish you can make quick edits.
Interesting fights coming up. Let's win some !

hey gcad. i figured with all that shit thomas has been talking that askren would try to kick his ass quicker than last time? i guess the revers is that he gets caught? i'm not very familiar with bellator so i would like to hear your thoughts. for the record, i have askren/soto in a parlay and soto/hornbuckle. thanx in advance and good luck to you sir.

I'm on the Thomas line as well...  Value in that play.  Askren is not a -550 fav, imo...

I've got Hornbuckle parlayed with Wiuff as well.

GL

From a handicapper's stand point, I don't think there is too much we can go on in terms of will Askren or Thomas do anything different soley because of the trash-talk.

I think it's the same matchup, with Askren looking to get it to the ground often and looking for a sub if it's there, while Thomas will likely have the advantage every moment the fight is on the feet, and has won via sub off his back at least 3 times (all triangles) to my knowledge. With Askren's dislocated finger, he may also struggle to close grip on his submission attempts (like the first match?). These indicators as well as others point to Thomas having value from at least +300 and up IMO.

Good luck on your parlays!