x < -200: 5-0 100% -200 = x
< EVEN: 6-3 67% EVEN = x =
+200: 2-3-1 40% +200 < x:
0-1 0%
2010 YTD: 9.51u
UFC on Versus 1:
Jon Jones3u to win 1.66u (combo of
Jones -205 via sportsbook and Vera +240 via bodog) Vera will struggle
to find his range against the longer Jones, and Jones will likely be
able to put Vera on his back based on what we've seen from him so far.
Vera will be out of his comfort zone, as he won't be able to use knees
as effectively as he has in the past, and staying in one place like he
usually does will allow Jones to pick him apart. I think anything under
-300 for Jones has value and anything below +300 for Vera is -EV.
Eliot Marshall.6u to win 1.1u (+185 via
sportsbook) Marshall was able to win a somewhat controversial split
dec win over a talented wrestler in Jason Brilz. He did so by constantly
staying out of range (arguably running away) and successfully stuffing
Brilz's takedowns. This match by itself presents a blueprint in how he
could pull the upset over Matyushenko. Maty's striking looked good
against Pokrajac, but Pokrajac's striking defense is so terrible that
Maty landed a large percentage of punches that he threw. Matyshenko may
also show up just as defensive as Marshall if he can't find his range
early (see Maty vs Lil Nog). I expect this to be relatively boring, and
if Marshall can stuff Maty's takedowns, Marshall has a strong chance to
win. I still like a small play at +150 or better, I'd be skeptical to
lay a wager at a lower price than that.
Jason Brilz1.5u
to win 1.11u (-135 via sportsbook) Brilz was rendered useless
when he couldn't take down Eliot Marshall in his last match.
Fortunately for Brilz, Schafer's striking is also mediocre and tends to
invite his opponents to the ground when he can. Brilz's top game is so
stifling that I don't see Schafer being able to successfully work a
submission. This can be evidenced by Brilz's previous fights and record
(only 1 submission loss , due to armbar in 2001. Pretty impressive for a
fighter who almost always goes to the ground). The fact that you can
still get Brilz for -150 is interesting; his wrestling and submission
awareness should make him a higher favorite since both fighters are
inferior strikers. The one problem with this bet that I have is that I
think Schafer will win if Brilz tries to stand for 3 rounds. I like to
think that Brilz will go for takedowns even against Schafer, since
that's the only offense Brilz has at this time and he always attempts
takedowns in every fight.
0
x < -200: 5-0 100% -200 = x
< EVEN: 6-3 67% EVEN = x =
+200: 2-3-1 40% +200 < x:
0-1 0%
2010 YTD: 9.51u
UFC on Versus 1:
Jon Jones3u to win 1.66u (combo of
Jones -205 via sportsbook and Vera +240 via bodog) Vera will struggle
to find his range against the longer Jones, and Jones will likely be
able to put Vera on his back based on what we've seen from him so far.
Vera will be out of his comfort zone, as he won't be able to use knees
as effectively as he has in the past, and staying in one place like he
usually does will allow Jones to pick him apart. I think anything under
-300 for Jones has value and anything below +300 for Vera is -EV.
Eliot Marshall.6u to win 1.1u (+185 via
sportsbook) Marshall was able to win a somewhat controversial split
dec win over a talented wrestler in Jason Brilz. He did so by constantly
staying out of range (arguably running away) and successfully stuffing
Brilz's takedowns. This match by itself presents a blueprint in how he
could pull the upset over Matyushenko. Maty's striking looked good
against Pokrajac, but Pokrajac's striking defense is so terrible that
Maty landed a large percentage of punches that he threw. Matyshenko may
also show up just as defensive as Marshall if he can't find his range
early (see Maty vs Lil Nog). I expect this to be relatively boring, and
if Marshall can stuff Maty's takedowns, Marshall has a strong chance to
win. I still like a small play at +150 or better, I'd be skeptical to
lay a wager at a lower price than that.
Jason Brilz1.5u
to win 1.11u (-135 via sportsbook) Brilz was rendered useless
when he couldn't take down Eliot Marshall in his last match.
Fortunately for Brilz, Schafer's striking is also mediocre and tends to
invite his opponents to the ground when he can. Brilz's top game is so
stifling that I don't see Schafer being able to successfully work a
submission. This can be evidenced by Brilz's previous fights and record
(only 1 submission loss , due to armbar in 2001. Pretty impressive for a
fighter who almost always goes to the ground). The fact that you can
still get Brilz for -150 is interesting; his wrestling and submission
awareness should make him a higher favorite since both fighters are
inferior strikers. The one problem with this bet that I have is that I
think Schafer will win if Brilz tries to stand for 3 rounds. I like to
think that Brilz will go for takedowns even against Schafer, since
that's the only offense Brilz has at this time and he always attempts
takedowns in every fight.
Jon Jones3u to win 1.66u (combo of Jones -205 via sportsbook and Vera +240 via bodog) W Eliot Marshall.6u to win 1.1u (+185 via sportsbook) L Jason Brilz1.5u to win 1.11u (-135 via sportsbook) W
x < -200: 6-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 9-3 75%
EVEN = x = +200: 2-4-1 33%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%
UFC on Versus 1: +2.17u
2010 YTD: 12.19u (including DREAM 13 results)
Some quick thoughts:
Some very great calls made in difficult circumstances by Rosenthal and
Dean. The rules should be made more available to the public, as even
Joe Rogan (or myself) didn't know a fighter had a choice to regain
their position.
Jones/Vera: Vera has one submission win on his record, which was
a flying gullotine choke. All the times he has been on his back, he has
never had a near-submission attempt. He may have a brown belt in
jiujitsu but I wouldn't know that from watching his fights. All this
talk about Jones nearly getting caught in a submission is silly IMO.
Jones really loves those elbows, and his reach allows him to get a ton
of force behind them. Vera is not a quitter; he must have been in a lot
of pain after those facial fractures occurred.
Brilz/Schafer:From the play by play it sounds like Brilz's
wrestling became a factor in the 3rd round. Schafer apparently started
to gas early. It looks like he gassed in the Bader fight against well,
but this was masked by the fact that Bader was also extremely tired.
Schafer will probably get his UFC walking papers shortly.
Marshall/Matyushenko: It looks like to hometown crowd was able
to win one judge over, but Matyushenko still brings it at 39 years old.
Looks like Marshall got a taste of his own medicine; Matyushenko was
very evasive every time Marshall moved forward.
Kongo/Buentello: Buentello's been around for a long time. Something's terribly wrong when Chieck Kongo is dominating you with his grappling.
0
Quote Originally Posted by GuidaClayAllDay:
Jon Jones3u to win 1.66u (combo of Jones -205 via sportsbook and Vera +240 via bodog) W Eliot Marshall.6u to win 1.1u (+185 via sportsbook) L Jason Brilz1.5u to win 1.11u (-135 via sportsbook) W
x < -200: 6-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 9-3 75%
EVEN = x = +200: 2-4-1 33%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%
UFC on Versus 1: +2.17u
2010 YTD: 12.19u (including DREAM 13 results)
Some quick thoughts:
Some very great calls made in difficult circumstances by Rosenthal and
Dean. The rules should be made more available to the public, as even
Joe Rogan (or myself) didn't know a fighter had a choice to regain
their position.
Jones/Vera: Vera has one submission win on his record, which was
a flying gullotine choke. All the times he has been on his back, he has
never had a near-submission attempt. He may have a brown belt in
jiujitsu but I wouldn't know that from watching his fights. All this
talk about Jones nearly getting caught in a submission is silly IMO.
Jones really loves those elbows, and his reach allows him to get a ton
of force behind them. Vera is not a quitter; he must have been in a lot
of pain after those facial fractures occurred.
Brilz/Schafer:From the play by play it sounds like Brilz's
wrestling became a factor in the 3rd round. Schafer apparently started
to gas early. It looks like he gassed in the Bader fight against well,
but this was masked by the fact that Bader was also extremely tired.
Schafer will probably get his UFC walking papers shortly.
Marshall/Matyushenko: It looks like to hometown crowd was able
to win one judge over, but Matyushenko still brings it at 39 years old.
Looks like Marshall got a taste of his own medicine; Matyushenko was
very evasive every time Marshall moved forward.
Kongo/Buentello: Buentello's been around for a long time. Something's terribly wrong when Chieck Kongo is dominating you with his grappling.
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