I'm loving Bibiano Fernandes at +115. First fight for Hansen cutting to 145.
If that's one of your reasons, you'll be pleased to know this fight's being contested at 139 pounds - even more weight Hansen will have to drop than he's accustomed to doing.
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Quote Originally Posted by The_HOFF:
I'm loving Bibiano Fernandes at +115. First fight for Hansen cutting to 145.
If that's one of your reasons, you'll be pleased to know this fight's being contested at 139 pounds - even more weight Hansen will have to drop than he's accustomed to doing.
x < -200: 5-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 6-3 67%
EVEN = x = +200: 2-3-1 40%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%
2010 YTD: +9.51u +/- UFC on Versus Results TBD
DREAM 13:
I found out sportsbook never offered Minowa at +200...it was a typo on BFO.
KJ Noons2u to win .83u (-240 via sportsbook)
Noons has been racking up professional boxing wins and is making his
return to MMA. He has always had decent takedown defense, but Andre
Dida has always preferred to strike. Dida tends to swing wildly looking
for the killer punch. He was able to drop Alvarez and Kikuno but he
couldn't not finish them, and ended up losing both matches.
Like Noons has good head movement and is good at staying in the pocket
as punches come towards him. I think there's a much better chance that
Noons out-strikes Dida with technique and head movement compared to
Dida landing a knockout blow. Even at the current odds, I think Noons
still has a little value (you can get him for a better price at -215 at
Bookmaker), while it's a high-risk-low-reward-situation betting Andre
Dida at less than 2-1 odds.
Bibiando Fernandez .75u to win .68u (-110 via sportsbook)
I made a play on Bibiando Fernandez but I regret doing so at this odds.
The current odds are a lot more favorable (Bibiando is +120 on 5dimes
and may get better). Hansen has consistently been wrestled or tossed to
the ground and this falls right into Bibiando's gameplan. Bibiando's
striking isn't the greatest but since Hansen is comfortable on the
ground, I think most of the match will take place on the mat. Bibiando
has quick transitions and was skilled enough to take Urijah Faber's
back.
I do not recommend a big play due to Bibiando's lacking gas tank,
possible ref/judge favoritism towards Hansen, and the chance of a
Hansen KO. But I believe there's zero chance Bibiando gets subbed and I
like Bibiando's chances for a dec/sub win.
not only did I rush the play on an inferior line, but I also wish I bet
.5u and not .75u. If I was more patient I would have made a .5u play on
the +120 line.
0
x < -200: 5-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 6-3 67%
EVEN = x = +200: 2-3-1 40%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%
2010 YTD: +9.51u +/- UFC on Versus Results TBD
DREAM 13:
I found out sportsbook never offered Minowa at +200...it was a typo on BFO.
KJ Noons2u to win .83u (-240 via sportsbook)
Noons has been racking up professional boxing wins and is making his
return to MMA. He has always had decent takedown defense, but Andre
Dida has always preferred to strike. Dida tends to swing wildly looking
for the killer punch. He was able to drop Alvarez and Kikuno but he
couldn't not finish them, and ended up losing both matches.
Like Noons has good head movement and is good at staying in the pocket
as punches come towards him. I think there's a much better chance that
Noons out-strikes Dida with technique and head movement compared to
Dida landing a knockout blow. Even at the current odds, I think Noons
still has a little value (you can get him for a better price at -215 at
Bookmaker), while it's a high-risk-low-reward-situation betting Andre
Dida at less than 2-1 odds.
Bibiando Fernandez .75u to win .68u (-110 via sportsbook)
I made a play on Bibiando Fernandez but I regret doing so at this odds.
The current odds are a lot more favorable (Bibiando is +120 on 5dimes
and may get better). Hansen has consistently been wrestled or tossed to
the ground and this falls right into Bibiando's gameplan. Bibiando's
striking isn't the greatest but since Hansen is comfortable on the
ground, I think most of the match will take place on the mat. Bibiando
has quick transitions and was skilled enough to take Urijah Faber's
back.
I do not recommend a big play due to Bibiando's lacking gas tank,
possible ref/judge favoritism towards Hansen, and the chance of a
Hansen KO. But I believe there's zero chance Bibiando gets subbed and I
like Bibiando's chances for a dec/sub win.
not only did I rush the play on an inferior line, but I also wish I bet
.5u and not .75u. If I was more patient I would have made a .5u play on
the +120 line.
KJ Noons2u to win .83u (-240 via sportsbook) W Bibiando Fernandez .75u to win .68u (-110 via sportsbook) W
x < -200: 5-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 8-3 73%
EVEN = x = +200: 2-3-1 40%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%
DREAM 13: +1.51u
2010 YTD: 11.02u + UFC on Versus Results
I wasn't able to watch the full event yet, and with so much MMA coming up I probably will hold off watching for a couple weeks.
Some quick thoughts: Noons/Dida: Dida was completely outclassed on the feet. Noons
had much faster hands and was more active. Dida never got off his
backwards bicycle.
Bibiando/Hansen: Bibiando fared better in the striking
department then I originally thought. Bibiando's takedowns were a
factor although he wasn't able to do much with them. I think the real
reason Bibiando won was that Hansen didn't do enough to "defeat the
champion". Would have been a shame if Hansen won IMO.
0
Quote Originally Posted by GuidaClayAllDay:
KJ Noons2u to win .83u (-240 via sportsbook) W Bibiando Fernandez .75u to win .68u (-110 via sportsbook) W
x < -200: 5-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 8-3 73%
EVEN = x = +200: 2-3-1 40%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%
DREAM 13: +1.51u
2010 YTD: 11.02u + UFC on Versus Results
I wasn't able to watch the full event yet, and with so much MMA coming up I probably will hold off watching for a couple weeks.
Some quick thoughts: Noons/Dida: Dida was completely outclassed on the feet. Noons
had much faster hands and was more active. Dida never got off his
backwards bicycle.
Bibiando/Hansen: Bibiando fared better in the striking
department then I originally thought. Bibiando's takedowns were a
factor although he wasn't able to do much with them. I think the real
reason Bibiando won was that Hansen didn't do enough to "defeat the
champion". Would have been a shame if Hansen won IMO.
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