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The Anti-Patriots money line experiment

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Posted: #1
Damn near impossible to go undefeated in the NFL over a 16 game schedule - I'm going to bet it doesn't happen starting this week.
 
1 Unit
Redskins ML +1250  (matchbook)
 
The only game I expect this not to have tremendous value will be on 11/4 against the Colts. Otherwise this should be +1000 or more every week.
 
Remaining games -
 
Date vs. Last Meeting ATS
10/28/07 WAS L 17-20 09/28/03 P/U
11/04/07 @IND L 34-38 01/21/07 W/O
BYE
11/18/07 @BUF W 38-7 09/23/07 W/O
11/25/07 PHI W 24-21 02/06/05 W/U
12/03/07 @BAL W 24-3 11/28/04 W/U
12/09/07 PIT W 23-20 09/25/05 L/O
12/16/07 NYJ W 38-14 09/09/07 L/O
12/23/07 MIA W 49-28 10/21/07 L/O
12/29/07 @NYG W 17-6 10/12/03 W/U
 
Bash all you want Pats fans, this is simply an angle and I'm playing the odds here.
 
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Posted: #2
The problem with NE and Indy is they are probably gonna get beat by someone that has no business being on the field with them.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by K_Z_Z_A88:

The problem with NE and Indy is they are probably gonna get beat by someone that has no business being on the field with them.

That's what I'm hoping for - at a nice price.

I would do the same with the Colts but the prices aren't inflated enough.

If it happpens to be the Colts that knocks off the Pats, it will be in week 2 of this experiment, so my investment will be minimal, and my return will be smaller. I may look to do the same using Colts games if the Colts beat NE and the prices rise.

 
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Posted: #4
do you think the dog ml's will deflate a bit if ne beats indy just because there will be a presumption that ne won't run the table and the books want to save as much possible on bettors such as yourself?
 
the funny thing is, going into this season this looked like a somewhat tough schedule. but given the poor performance of jets, mia, bal and phi, 3 of these playoff teams last year, ne could come real close.  especially if indy is still right behind them and they are battling for conference home field.
 
gl with it
 
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Posted: #5
What if they do go undefeated though????

E
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by DeltaSigChi4:

What if they do go undefeated though????

E

 

 

good luck though

 
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Posted: #7
The math works.  If you play it 10 times for $100 each at around +1000, and it hits once, you make $100.  If it hits in fewer than 10 times, obviously you win more.
 
Of course, if NE does go undefeated, you lose $1000 (or whatever amount you bet x 10).
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by DeltaSigChi4:

What if they do go undefeated though????

E

if pats secure home field advantage in week 16, then G-man may have something to play for the playoff spot and pats may lay off it.

 
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Posted: #9
the real line value is skins +3000.
 
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Posted: #10
Take it to em buddy, hope it hits for you big one week and then it will probably be medium another week if they get to 2 losses.
 
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Posted: #11
skins vs. ariz.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by HorizonInsider:

The math works.  If you play it 10 times for $100 each at around +1000, and it hits once, you make $100.  If it hits in fewer than 10 times, obviously you win more.
 
Of course, if NE does go undefeated, you lose $1000 (or whatever amount you bet x 10).

my thinking is that the books are going to be on to plans like this and will start playing with the money lines on pats opponents.  law of averages suggest that a loss would be coming and i think you wont see as many +1000's deeper into the season.

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by chicagokmc:

my thinking is that the books are going to be on to plans like this and will start playing with the money lines on pats opponents.  law of averages suggest that a loss would be coming and i think you wont see as many +1000's deeper into the season.

does anyone even know if there is historical precedence to take the ml off the board in situations like this, especially if ne is undefeated into the final parts of the season?

 
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Posted: #14
lol gl
 
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Posted: #15
You could have put an offer out there, I think (I could be wrong) you might have gotten more than +1250.
 
This will be interesting to watch.
 
What do you think the moneyline will be versus the Colts?  I'm guessing the spread will be between 3.5 and 6.5.  You might be able to get +200 or so?
 
No way you'll get +1000 at the Ravens, or at home versus Pitt, or at NYG in the finale.
 
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Posted: #16
Wow what a waste of weeks and weeks of time and effort.
 
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Posted: #17
I have a small couple hundred dollar prop from a LV casino for the Pats to go undefeated at 18 to 1. Bought after week 1 when the Pats beat the Jets. Was originiall 20 to 1 but was adjusted down to 18 after the week 1 win. I may angle off a little of the action the same type of way you have. It is only $500 but at 18 to 1 the payout is decent.
 
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Posted: #18
If anything, it looks like there is MORE value on an anti-Patriots ML right now.
 
Moneylines somewhat correspond to the spread, the higher the spread, the higher the ML.  Taking a look at some underdog spreads and the ML on those games...
 
+3  =  +150
+5  =  +200
+7  =  +250
+10 =  +400
+14 =  +475
+17 =  +650
 
Those are obviously rough estimates, but a 17 point college dog (Idaho this week) is around +650.  The Skins are a 16.5 point pro dog and are at least +1000 (+1150 at my book).
 
If more action starts coming in on the anti-Patriot ML, it might creep down into the +500 range.  But how many games will the Patriots not be DD favs?  The Indy game. Maybe Pittsburgh, @Baltimore and @Giants
 
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Posted: #19
new england and indy playing week 9 both will come in undefeated so wait until after to begin your strategy
 
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Posted: #20
I'd start it with Indy.

I could see Washington doing a back door cover, but I don't see them winning.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by The Giant:

You could have put an offer out there, I think (I could be wrong) you might have gotten more than +1250.
 
This will be interesting to watch.
 
What do you think the moneyline will be versus the Colts?  I'm guessing the spread will be between 3.5 and 6.5.  You might be able to get +200 or so?
 
No way you'll get +1000 at the Ravens, or at home versus Pitt, or at NYG in the finale.

I haven't made the play yet. It's currently at +1350 & -1500 and I expect it will keep climbing until gametime. I'm thinking +200 or so against the Colts, but if they get by the next two the world will be even higher on this team (if that's even possible) and I expect to see the +1000 the rest of the way out.

Hope the Skins get it done and end the experiment.

 
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Posted: #22
One other thing for you in-game bettors - people panic during in-game betting. If you play on a dog this big and they score first, you almost always get a great buy back opportunity.
I'll follow that too.
 
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Posted: #23
bol to you 3rd
 
i really do think that the colts will win at home against ne if wash dont beat em on sunday
 
i doubt wash wins but i expect a hard fought close physical game
 
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Posted: #24
So far -1 unit (had it at +1300)
 
Game 2
Indianapolis ML +218
 
 
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Posted: #25
good strategy 3rd,, but i would include a qualifier , that ML > 500 , otherwise take the spread.. as by the logic , they also should not go 16-0 ats .. all over the colts +5 and the under
 
gl thou
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