Week 5 4 team 13 point teaser (2-2 on season)

SD going down was tough but miskimike warned me...

SF losing its QB early in the game was something neither of us could have forseen...

Lets take a look +13 points ATS...

Week 1 = 7 losers 32 outcomes = 78.12%
Week 2 = 8 losers 32 outcomes = 75%
Week 3 = 5 losers 32 outcomes = 84.36%
Week 4 = 10 losers 28 outcomes = 62.29%
Total    =  30 loser 124 outcomes =   75.81%
So last week was  brutal for + 13 points ATS....

This season for the most part has not faired well for +13 points ATS either as you need about 84-85% to start winning....In theory, it should start to even out....
I don't think that +13 points ATS has ever gone under 80% on the season according my numbers...

Lately I have looked at the theory of successful teams +13 points ATS which was a good defense and a winning team....

Teams that are 4-0 +13 points ATS this season....

IND, NE, DAL, GB obviously..

others on the list with 3 wins +13 points ATS

HOU,
JAX , TB, TEN, WAS (these 4 teams have gone under +13 points under in every game)...

ARZ (dog in every game), DEN (0-4 ATS),
MIN and SEA (both teams have gone under +13 points in every game)

So I still stand by the theory of taking winning teams and taking teams with lower scoring games and taking teams with strong defenses makes more sense then taking teams with poor offenses to make that under.... 

But after all of those numbers, I am still tempted to play a 3 team 10 point teaser....something that I am working on this season is to look to play a 3 teamer or a 2 teamer when it seemed appropriate.....

IND -0.5
DAL-0.5
TEN +1.5

I personally like the way that IND has played this season and even when on the road in tight games pulling it out SU...TB might come in and try to run the play and play clock control, but int he end the offense of IND should be able to get this win at home...

Similarly with TEN coming off of a bye playing solid defense against ATL to pull off a SU win...

DAL I think on monday night will win SU and I see this game going over however, but DAL has been able to win games by putting up points with a balanced attack.... BUF I think cannot compete with a team that will put up points...

What do you think about this teaser?

so like the possibility of a middle or hedge on a monday night game with a good money line or spread bet with BUF...

Just gotta have IND and TEN win SU at home...

Im liking this more and more...

I'd wait on Indy inj report before betting on them.  Addai/Harrison/Sanders up in air though Addai is likely to play.  Morris is out for sure though.

fantastic, enjoy the box....

gmitran,

Thanks for the warning...  I was going put it in before the DAL spread keeps going up... I will wait a bit..

I still like the teaser I got going tho.... alot of good hedge or middle possibility on monday night....
IND -0.5
DAL-0.5
TEN +1.5

Joseph Addai	RB	Missed Wednesday Practice (chest)
Roy Hall	WR	Missed Wednesday Practice (shoulder)
Marvin Harrison	WR	Missed Wednesday Practice (knee)
Freddy Keiaho	LB	Missed Wednesday Practice (concussion)
Rob Morris	LB	Missed Wednesday Practice (knee)
T.J. Rushing	CB	Missed Wednesday Practice (hamstring)
Bob Sanders	S	Missed Wednesday Practice (chest)
Clint Session	LB	Missed Wednesday Practice (hamstring)
Tony Ugoh	T	Missed Wednesday Practice (ankle)
Ben Utecht	TE	Missed Wednesday Practice (concussion)

 Alot of injuries on the IND side...perhaps waiting was a good idea...But with TBs injuries, I think IND SU is still a good bet...

So Im sticking with 3 team 10 pointer for now...
IND -0.5
DAL-0.5
TEN +1.5

Any other ideas?

With all of Buffalo injuries, I think Dal -4 and Ten -2 (6-pt tease) is pretty good bet.  I know Dal tease doesn't cross the 3 but don't see how Buffalo can keep close w/ all those def injuries.

Dal/Buf over 31.5 pts is another option as I can see Dal scoring that much themselves.

gmitran,

I think your idea is interesting of taking the 2 team 6 point tease....

Sounds like you dont believe in IND moneyline...

Still sticking with my 3 teamer for now...
IND -0.5
DAL-0.5
TEN +1.5

anymore ideas or suggestions?

I like the Dallas/Over tease.  Looks like

miskimike,

personally I think that DAL should win SU....ATS might be more scary, but I would not consider going the other way with BUF at +23...

I agree with you on the PIT game, but with the +7 number when teased, I might look to play that on a 6 point teaser some how.... perhaps +$ on the 10 pointer...

KC +15 on the +13 points seems like a good play as JAX to me is a tough team but not a team with blowout potential, especially on the road..

GB +9.5 I think is a decent play, If CHI wins I cant see it being by much....I dont know how I feel about the game in general tho...

WAS is a team that I think is a good + 13 points ATS... They are coming off of a bye and have played close games so far but against MIA, PHI and NYG, so relatively weaker teams...Interestingly WAS had gone under for the most part and with lower scoring have value with the +13 point ATS....I like this game personally...

So this is what I got 3 options....

1. The 3 team 10 pointer (IND, DAL, TEN +2, considering PIT +4)

2. Looking at 6 pointer with (HOU, PIT and TEN-2)

3. Looking at the 4 team 13 pointer
KC +15
IND +3
TEN +5
WAS +9.5
NE -4

any more ideas or suggestions?

okay lets focus on the +13 point angle for a moment...

first looking at home dogs...

KC +15, I like this...Good spot as a home dog, good value in fading a team with an offense that has averaged 15.33 points a game... so getting 15 points at home is a good situation...

STL +16.5... I dont know if this is good pick, but as  home dog, STL might be in a spot where ARZ is overrated at this point with their SU win as a dog, and now they are a road fav..  ARZ was 1-3 ATS last year as a fav....
Here is another thing to consider....  I dont know if in like the last 15 years according to my numbers has ARZ beaten a team as fav by more then +13 points ATS... meaning fading ARZ as fade + 13 points according to my numbers is 100% in the last 15 years.... I guess there is a first time for everything....

BUF +23.5
I have trouble understanding this game... I think that alot of people on the forum are talking about BUF in this spot as a home dog...It appears however according to wagerline that alot of people are on DAL...  I guess with I am scared to play BUF who is 2-2 +13 points ATS...  and fading DAL +13 points is 2-2 and only half point away in the MIA game from being 1-3.... 
Typically good value on + 13 points ATS dog comes with going against a lower scoring team but with DAL averaging 37.75 points a game, I have some reservation about this play...

So this is what Im thinking....

KC +15
STL +16.5
TEN +5
PIT +7

any more ideas or suggestions?

In the end I like the KC play, and kinda like the STL play...

but I really like TEN and PIT and at those numbers I might be better off with a 6 or 7 point teaser....I saw that betjamaica who I also bet with in addition to bodog has IND at -9.5

This makes me think about a 3 team 7 point teaser...

TEN -1
PIT +1
IND -2.5

Pays +150

anymore ideas or suggestions?

Okay after some thought...

I am going with the 3 team 7 point teaser for 1 unit...

TEN -1
PIT +1
IND -2.5

I do not think that playing this 10 points is worth it as it would only affect the PIT game getting it a +4 which is actually a good number... Call me greedy this week but I like the +150 odds in this situation in comparison to the -110 on the 10 pointer...

for those that want to know my ATS plays, I like WAS  -3 (buying hook)...  Other then that will wait and see on the later games...

good luck everyone