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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Prop bet on SEC players in 1st round O/U13
trustandfall send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
trustandfall
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#1
Posted: 4/25/2013 6:23:37 PM
Huge value at my bookie on Over 13 in my opinion.

Pretty much every mock draft I've seen has 13 SEC players going in the first round, but there is the occasional mock that has 14 going, such as Mike Mayock's.

It seems to me there are quite a few non-SEC players that *could* slip out of the first round, and have a ton of question marks surrounding them.

I'm taking the over at +240 for $400/$960. Feeling confident that worst case scenario I'm more likely to break even than lose, and also more likely to win, than lose.

Good value here in my opinion. Best of luck to everyone in their prop bets!
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#2
Posted: 4/25/2013 6:26:10 PM
Here are my other bets as well:

Lattimore O87.5 -160
O4 ACC players 1st round -260 (figure to push, but may get lucky)
U4 Big 12 players 1st round -135 (figure to push, but may get lucky)
O4 Pac 12 players 1st round -115 (figure to push, but may get lucky)
O7 offensive lineman 1st round +240 (figure to push, may lose by 1, but may get lucky!)

All these players are much lower than the SEC one. Like, $150-$100 wagers in most cases.
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#3
Posted: 4/25/2013 6:26:23 PM
All these plays*
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#4
Posted: 4/25/2013 6:51:03 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by trustandfall:

Huge value at my bookie on Over 13 in my opinion.

Pretty much every mock draft I've seen has 13 SEC players going in the first round, but there is the occasional mock that has 14 going, such as Mike Mayock's.

I took under 11.5 at +210 last night.  I project it to hit 37.5% of the time based on the drafts I've looked at. 

I see some trades happening late in the first round such as teams trading up for a QB, which will push some of the SEC guys out of the 1st round.

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#5
Posted: 4/25/2013 7:23:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rf_dawg:

I took under 11.5 at +210 last night.  I project it to hit 37.5% of the time based on the drafts I've looked at. 

I see some trades happening late in the first round such as teams trading up for a QB, which will push some of the SEC guys out of the 1st round.



While I must say I respect the work you put in to compile as many mocks as you did, as I read in another thread, I must say personally I wouldn't value many peoples outside a select 5 or so individuals. The only 3 I looked at that were very reputable, all had at least 13 SEC players going in the first. One of them had 14, I'm just hoping against odds that I'll get lucky. I'm expecting to push, but I may get lucky or unlucky, and either one of those is alright. =)
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#6
Posted: 4/25/2013 7:42:21 PM
I hear ya.  I just couldn't pass up +210 for something I could certainly see happening.  Odds are it will go over 11.5 but crazy stuff happens in the draft.
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#7
Posted: 4/25/2013 9:32:36 PM
5 out of the first 11 are SEC players.. need this to continue!
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#8
Posted: 4/25/2013 11:36:55 PM
We might both lose assuming Eddie Lacey goes here to the Rams @ 30... Good job bookies! :/
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#9
Posted: 4/25/2013 11:41:17 PM
Wow, Ogletree instead.. still an SEC player though.
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#10
Posted: 4/25/2013 11:45:49 PM
Yeah, we both got screwed. 12 picks from the SEC.. ugh.
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#11
Posted: 4/26/2013 4:18:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by trustandfall:

Yeah, we both got screwed. 12 picks from the SEC.. ugh.

Yup, that last pick cost me two bets.  This one and also the CB's + Safeties o/u bet.  Oh well, that's how it goes.

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