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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL FORUM - HERE IT IS GUYS!: BUYING THE HOOK IN THE NFL REGULAR SEASON
TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TexasD
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#1
Posted: 2/10/2013 10:22:03 PM
(I POSTED BUYING 1/2 POINT IN THE NFL NOT JUST IN THE NFL FORUM, BUT ALSO NCAA AND NBA ALSO AS IT IS THE NFL OFF-SEASON AND NOT MANY PEOPLE VISIT THE NFL FORUM NOW AND THE NFL IS A BIG CONTRAST TO BUYING POINTS IN BASKETBALL)

First things first....let me put this highly believed thought to rest:

MOST NFL games end by 3 or 7.

FALSE

Out of the 256 games of the 2012 NFL Regular Season, there were only 60 games that ended by 3 or 7.

60/256 = 23.4% or a little under 1 out of every 4 games ends by a FG or TD.

-------------------------------------------------

To derive these stats, I pulled them from VegasInsider.com, I've been using them for all the NCAA and NBA point-buying data, and am sticking with them just because of familiarity, so a few of the Ending Spreads may differ from Covers.com as far as "closing spreads" may be.

I'm not going to type up every stat for every week as it is a lot of data, but will give you the Totals as I did above for finding out how many games end by a FG or TD.

Now here is the data VS the SPREAD:

Out of the 256 games played in the regular season, 136 games had a spread that was either ON 3 or 7 OR 1/2 point away from 3 or 7.

Given that, on any game where it is ON 3 or 7, I will buy the "HOOK" or 1/2 point FOR THE WIN and will use the -120 juice for the 1/2 point.  So, each game in this category WINS you $100 on the $120 bet. Also, since I'm assuming nobody is dumb enough to buy 1/2 point on BOTH teams, i will assume we only bought points on 1 of the 2 teams to get a win instead of a push.

Also, on games where it is 1/2 point AWAY FROM 3 or 7, I will buy the "HOOK" or 1/2 point FOR THE PUSH and will also use the -120 juice for the 1/2 point.  So, each game in this category will "SAVE" a $120 bet. Also, in each of these games, the 1/2 point will only be bought for 1 of the 2 teams as you either buy 1/2 point on -3.5 or +2.5, or -7.5 or +6.5.

(Hopefully that all made sense)

Of the 136 games that had a spread that was near or on 3 or 7,...10 games would have pushed instead of lost and 3 would have won instead of pushed.

13 out of 136 bets would have been affected by buying the 1/2 point or 9.56%.

WAS IT WORTH IT?!?!?

10 bets x $120 on the pushes = $1,200
3 bets x winning $100 = $300

$1,500 TOTAL SAVINGS

What you paid in juice:


The rest of the 123 bets (or 90.44%) regardless of win or lose, you paid an extra $10 in juice whether you lost $10 more than only betting $110 on the ORIGINAL SPREAD at -110 odds to get the same Win Amount OR you lost $10 more than you would have had you Only bet $110 on the -110 ORIGINAL SPREAD....SO:

123 X $10 = $1,230 paid in juice.


CONCLUSION:


THE AMOUNT OF MONEY "SAVED" ($1,500) BY BUYING THE "HOOK" OR 1/2 POINT NEAR 3 OR 7 WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE AMOUNT PAID FOR THE 1/2 POINT ON ALL THE GAMES WHERE IT DID NOT MATTER.

BUYING 1/2 POINT ON GAMES NEAR OR ON 3 OR 7 WAS PROFITABLE DURING THE 2012 NFL REGULAR SEASON.

Small Caution: Although 1 full regular season does seem like a good sample size, I'd be interested in furthering the research with a bigger sample size, maybe with post-season included.

These numbers are good enough for me to convince me that buying points CAN be PROFITABLE at least in the NFL.

ONE LAST STAT I NOTICED: BESIDES THE 3 GAMES THAT PUSHED ON 3 OR 7, THERE WERE ONLY 2 GAMES OUT OF 256 GAMES IN THE 2012 NFL REGULAR SEASON THAT PUSHED ON A NUMBER DIFFERENT FROM 3 OR 7.

Week 12 there was a push on +/-1 and in Week 13 there was a push on +/-8,...so I think it is safe to conclude that buying 1/2 point ANYWHERE OTHER THAN 3 OR 7 WAS A WASTE OF YOUR MONEY IN THE 2012 NFL REGULAR SEASON.


Best of Luck Guys, I finally took the time to research buying 1/2 points near 3 or 7 which turned out to be PROFITABLE in the 2012 NFL Regular Season and it was a WASTE OF MONEY ANYWHERE OTHER THAN 3 OR 7.....NOT EVEN ON OR NEAR 10 POINTS!


ALL COMMENTS, OPINIONS AND THOUGHTS WELCOMED!!
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budwiser send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 2/11/2013 3:17:48 PM
good research

general rule is buy the .5 when the spread is -3.5 or +2.5 to make it a field goal

anything else is a waste of time
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 2/11/2013 3:29:47 PM
Hold on....I wasn't convinced that only 256 games from 1 regular season was a big enough sample...I'm going through previous regular seasons right now and the numbers are different AND I also caught some INACCURACIES in my sifting through the data.

I had to switch to Covers.com which took some getting used to, but I've double checked all my data and FOR NOW, I can at least say that in 2012-13 regular season, after switching to Cover's stats and final odds, the numbers are not 13 out of 136 (9.56%) where 1/2 point mattered....but the numbers have dropped to 9 out of 121 games or 7.44% of games were affected by buying 1/2 point.

More to come, I wanted to sift through at least the scores and spreads that Covers has for the NFL in which they go back only 7 full season to 06-07.

I will post sometime today, but I need a bigger sample and need to sift through data so the percentages are a better average of probability.
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 2/11/2013 3:30:39 PM
The stat that DOES STAY THE SAME is the MYTH that MOST GAMES END BY A MARGIN OF 3 OR 7, FG OR TD.....

ABSOLUTE MYTH

NFL Regular Season 2012-13 had 60 of 256 games end with margin of 3 or 7.  That's only 23.44% or just UNDER 1 out of 4 games.

Already got Reg Season 2011-12 and the numbers are 65 of 256 or 25.4% or just over 1 out of 4 finished by a FG or TD.

MORE TO COME ON BUYING 1/2 POINT ON GAMES NEAR 3 OR 7.....
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Crashdavis565
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Crashdavis565
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#5
Posted: 2/27/2013 10:13:27 AM
Buying the hook, like all Vegas things, is bad. 
Vegas knows the odds and has given you , yet another sucker bet.
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 2/28/2013 9:19:50 PM
Crashdavis, you bumped an OLD thread...I wasn't convinced that the sample size of just 2012-13 was a big enough sampling, so I did all of the last 7 regular seasons of the NFL that Covers.com offered and it turned up that it WAS BENEFICIAL to a bankroll buying points to or.off of the key football numbers of 3 and 7. I also found that it was MORE beneficial to buy TO 3 or 7 for the push as opposed to just buying OFF of 3 or 7 for the win...but in either scenario, a 50/50 bettor would have LOST LESS MONEY OVERALL than the 50/50 bettor who took the original spreads at-110.

I will bump the OTHER THREAD that has ALL THE INFO for you.
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Crashdavis565
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Crashdavis565
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#7
Posted: 2/28/2013 10:04:27 PM
I read a tout service recap of this over the last 30 years!
It stated the hook was ok but only if you could get it for a dime on the line.
At 5dimes, they often want 15 or 20 cents for it and that makes it non profitable. 
I looked at your model and you are buying off of the 3 and 7, make sure you count all the juice when you figure out the totals.
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 2/28/2013 10:19:04 PM
I did do calculations with 10 cent juice for the 1/2 point and yes, I HAVE cautioned that Vegas and sports books know that there is a WAY higher demand for buying TO 3 or 7 as opposed to buying a line, for example, of +3.5 to +4.

I wouldn't be opposed to the challenge of posting the scenario of 15 cent juice and 20 cent juice when I have time this weekend.

PLEASE POST IN OTHER THREAD OF " NFL FORUM - BUYING THE HOOK TO 3 AND 7 IN THE NFL - FULL 7 YEARS OF STATS AND PROBABILITIES INSIDE"

LET THIS OLD THREAD THAT I AM POSTING #8 DIE AND USE THE THREAD WITH ALL 7 YEARS OF DATA, INFO, CALCULATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS.

THIS THREAD IS DEAD
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