Let's look at some numbers and discuss:
Balt. 11 15 20 17 6 15 (21)
5 SF 4 23 4 4 1 3 (4)
Sf - opens up as a 5 pt favorite - quickly went to 3.5 and currently around 3.5.
The numbers above represent off rsh rank, pass rank, def. rsh rnk, def. pass rnk, sagarin rank, sagarin sched strength rnk. Numbers in ( ) represent a composite of sagarin totals -lower the better - this allows me to have an over all look.
Sf is better in 5 out of 6 categories. Balt. is better only in off. passing rank.
History has shown - when a team is better in 5 categories and favored - they typically cover the spread; therefore, i'm going with SF - 3.5. (don't buy points).
I simply look at numbers and the point spread vegas puts on the game. I don't get hung up on ray lewis' possibly doing steroids or this being his last game, nor the player making homophobia comments. Nor do I get hung up on consensus or line movements. If there was a QB change i'd be concerned. other than that I see sf winning and covering the spread. Previous posts for the playoffs are below. I wish all of you a happy superbowl sunday - good luck all.
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Let's look at some numbers:
3 Sf 4 23 4 4 2 4 (8)
Atl 29 6 21 23 6 22 (28)
Sf - opens up as a 3 pt favorite - hovering around 4 right now.
The numbers above represent Rsh off rank, pass rank, def. rsh rnk, def. pass rnk sagarin rank, sagarin sched strength rnk. Numbers in ( ) represent a composite of sagarin totals -lower the better.
Sf is better in 5 out of the 6 categories - what I call a 5/1 situation. Historically when the 5 team is favored in this situation - the away team comes out on top and covers. Thus i'm on Sf.
Balt 11 15 20 17 9 17 (26)
9 NE 7 4 9 29 1 26 (27)
To help me handicap more precisely, I label each category A B C D E F. In this case - Balt is better in def rush rank, and sched. strength. I call this a 2 DF/4 situation. History has shown that in this scenario - the away team usually covers and very often wins the game out right. Thus i'm on Balt.
Last year we had a similar situation when Nyg played GB - The line was identical - gb was a 9 pt favorite it dropped to 7.5 and the giants won out right. This also occurred in the superbowl when the Giants won su against NE.
Trends indicate Sf and Balt. Good luck all.
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Let's look at some numbers and discuss:
Sea 3 27 10 6 2 6 (8)
3 Atl 29 6 21 23 6 26 (32)
The numbers above represent Rsh off rank, pass rank, def. rsh rnk, def. pass rnk sagarin rank, sagarin sched strength rnk. Numbers in ( ) represent a composite of sagarin totals -lower the better.
As you can see Sea is better in 5 categories. Atl is better only in passing off. rank. This is what I call a 5/1 situation. In every situation you must consider the opening line - Atl opened as a 3 pt fav. currently hovering around 3 - 2.5. You also want to consider what history has shown. If this was a regular season game - i'd be all over atl. However, this is the play offs so you have to look at what occurs during the playoffs - more often than not - the cream rises to the top. Here some games with from previous playoffs with similar patterns and lines:
Balt 5 13 2009
3 Tenn 1 10
Balt won 13 to 10.
Nyj 5 10
3 Ind 1 6 jets won 10 to 6.
Take the points or do what I did and take sea on the m/l. good luck all