So this prop obviously seems a bit too good to be true, thus it requires laying heavy chalk... Yes pays -325 to be exact. This is steep, for sure, but requires roughly 75% chance to happen to have positive EV. However I ask, with that O line and the likes of Kap, Gore, and James, it seems to be to be so sure that one of them gets in just once... Thinking about laying a ton!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So this prop obviously seems a bit too good to be true, thus it requires laying heavy chalk... Yes pays -325 to be exact. This is steep, for sure, but requires roughly 75% chance to happen to have positive EV. However I ask, with that O line and the likes of Kap, Gore, and James, it seems to be to be so sure that one of them gets in just once... Thinking about laying a ton!
Great prop. I personally wouldn't lay that juice, but I really like the chances of it happening for the obvious reasons you mentioned with Lamichael and Kap. The real question though is, how many TDs do you think they will score for the game? If SF is down in the 4Q it will be mostly passing and the chances of a rushing TD are greatly reduced.
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Great prop. I personally wouldn't lay that juice, but I really like the chances of it happening for the obvious reasons you mentioned with Lamichael and Kap. The real question though is, how many TDs do you think they will score for the game? If SF is down in the 4Q it will be mostly passing and the chances of a rushing TD are greatly reduced.
Even if they are down that doesn't necessarily mean they won't stick with the run - they were down by 17 in Atlanta and stuck with their running game plan. Plus, even if they are down by a lot and need to chuck the ball, that doesn't mean that they won't pass down the field but run it in near the goaline. Have to think that a first and goal situation would still see a lot of rushing attempts to keep it safe.
I do agree, however, that the number of total SF touchdowns is the determinative factor.
IF they score 4 or more total td, I'd say 95% chance one is rushing
IF 3 total td, 75-80%
If 2 total td, 65%
IF 1 total td 50%
These of course are my gut-feel predictions. Having said that, I think they score 3 Td's.. So I like the prop because it offers positive EV
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Even if they are down that doesn't necessarily mean they won't stick with the run - they were down by 17 in Atlanta and stuck with their running game plan. Plus, even if they are down by a lot and need to chuck the ball, that doesn't mean that they won't pass down the field but run it in near the goaline. Have to think that a first and goal situation would still see a lot of rushing attempts to keep it safe.
I do agree, however, that the number of total SF touchdowns is the determinative factor.
IF they score 4 or more total td, I'd say 95% chance one is rushing
IF 3 total td, 75-80%
If 2 total td, 65%
IF 1 total td 50%
These of course are my gut-feel predictions. Having said that, I think they score 3 Td's.. So I like the prop because it offers positive EV
Even if they are down that doesn't necessarily mean they won't stick with the run - they were down by 17 in Atlanta and stuck with their running game plan. Plus, even if they are down by a lot and need to chuck the ball, that doesn't mean that they won't pass down the field but run it in near the goaline. Have to think that a first and goal situation would still see a lot of rushing attempts to keep it safe.
I do agree, however, that the number of total SF touchdowns is the determinative factor.
IF they score 4 or more total td, I'd say 95% chance one is rushing
IF 3 total td, 75-80%
If 2 total td, 65%
IF 1 total td 50%
These of course are my gut-feel predictions. Having said that, I think they score 3 Td's.. So I like the prop because it offers positive EV
ive posted this earlier too and i believe this shows how great this team is. To run gore 4 straight plays after being down 17-0 on the road is discipline unheard of in the nfl
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Quote Originally Posted by finnryan22:
Even if they are down that doesn't necessarily mean they won't stick with the run - they were down by 17 in Atlanta and stuck with their running game plan. Plus, even if they are down by a lot and need to chuck the ball, that doesn't mean that they won't pass down the field but run it in near the goaline. Have to think that a first and goal situation would still see a lot of rushing attempts to keep it safe.
I do agree, however, that the number of total SF touchdowns is the determinative factor.
IF they score 4 or more total td, I'd say 95% chance one is rushing
IF 3 total td, 75-80%
If 2 total td, 65%
IF 1 total td 50%
These of course are my gut-feel predictions. Having said that, I think they score 3 Td's.. So I like the prop because it offers positive EV
ive posted this earlier too and i believe this shows how great this team is. To run gore 4 straight plays after being down 17-0 on the road is discipline unheard of in the nfl
finnryan22 - I wasn't insinuating they would abandon the run game completely, I was speculating they may choose more passing plays to favor their clock management if they are down 2+ scores. After looking more closely, I think you are right though and I was making some miscalculated assumptions. SF does have strong tendencies to run the ball, but interestingly enough with Kaepernick at the helm this prop is even juicier.
There's only been 2 out of 9 games that Kaepernick started that this prop would have lost. @ SEA there was no rushing TD and @ NE Kap rushed, but fumbled before the goal line and it was recovered to be aken in for a TD (not considered a rush TD).
When Alex Smith started the first 8 games of the season, there were 4 games without a rushing TD. Kaepernick alone has rushed for a TD in 4 of the 10 games he played since Smith went down. Baltimore has allowed a rushing TD in 12 of 19 games, incl postseason. Two games (KC & IND) saw no touchdowns by their opponents at all. Take it for what you want, I like the prop to hit. GL
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finnryan22 - I wasn't insinuating they would abandon the run game completely, I was speculating they may choose more passing plays to favor their clock management if they are down 2+ scores. After looking more closely, I think you are right though and I was making some miscalculated assumptions. SF does have strong tendencies to run the ball, but interestingly enough with Kaepernick at the helm this prop is even juicier.
There's only been 2 out of 9 games that Kaepernick started that this prop would have lost. @ SEA there was no rushing TD and @ NE Kap rushed, but fumbled before the goal line and it was recovered to be aken in for a TD (not considered a rush TD).
When Alex Smith started the first 8 games of the season, there were 4 games without a rushing TD. Kaepernick alone has rushed for a TD in 4 of the 10 games he played since Smith went down. Baltimore has allowed a rushing TD in 12 of 19 games, incl postseason. Two games (KC & IND) saw no touchdowns by their opponents at all. Take it for what you want, I like the prop to hit. GL
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