the game is a coin flip...... it really is

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: the game is a coin flip...... it really is
terp4life PM terp4life
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Posted: 1/29/2013 12:53:53 PM
i back the Ravens, but I would even admit this is one of the closet SB to call. Very evenly matched across the board. No matter how you break it down.   

The smart bet would be Ravens + 3.5  or no bet at all. 
texancapper PM texancapper
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Posted: 1/29/2013 1:28:02 PM

Generally the team that has the least experience QB wins the SB. I still have a tough tough time believing Doug Williams won the SB back when.

 

Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
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Posted: 1/29/2013 1:36:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by terp4life:

i back the Ravens, but I would even admit this is one of the closet SB to call. Very evenly matched across the board. No matter how you break it down.   

The smart bet would be Ravens + 3.5  or no bet at all. 



i agree with everything except the last statement... the SMART bet is Ravens (+4)... or SF (-3)... either of those plays can be considered a smart play... any other play means you are behind-the-8-ball, as far as the value is concerned...



it is odd that you say this is a coinflip, but the only smart play is on the Ravens...



you are right, it is a coinflip (not with respect to the actual outcome of the game... but with respect to the spread... if this game was played 100 times, SF would win about 60% of them... but with a spread of 3.5, that is going to reduce the covering % right down to 50/50, roughly speaking...


Balt ML is a justifiable play
Balt (+4) is a justifiable play
SF (-3) is a justifiable play



SF (-3.5) and Balt (+3.5) is a 50/50 proposition, and if you are paying extra juice at either of those numbers it's hard to say you made a good bet...
Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
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Posted: 1/29/2013 1:38:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by texancapper:

Generally the team that has the least experience QB wins the SB. I still have a tough tough time believing Doug Williams won the SB back when.

 






i can believe it... i watched that game, and it was (in my opinion) the most one-sided Super Bowl that i have ever seen (out of roughly 35)...

by the way, the theory about the more experienced QB winning the SB doesn't exactly hold water in recent years, does it?
Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
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Posted: 1/29/2013 6:02:49 PM
just for fun, i decided to look into the "experienced QB" theory, and whether or not it holds any water...



the last 5 times the Super Bowl featured a QB who had previously appeared in more Super Bowls than the opposing QB... in all 5 of those games, the less experienced QB won... incidentally, in all 5 of those cases the less experienced QB was also younger (unless i'm mistaken... don't think so)...

the last time a QB with more Super Bowl experience beat a QB with less SB experience was in 2004-05, when Brady outdueled Donovan McNabb, 32-29...


basically, doesn't look like recent evidence lends any credibility to the idea that team's with more experienced QBs have a significant (or any) advantage over teams with less experienced QBs...

now you know!
Ice4Blood PM Ice4Blood
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Posted: 1/29/2013 6:05:40 PM
addendum... since 1998, the only team that has won a SB in a matchup that featured a more experienced QB over a lesser experienced QB, was the Patriots... doing it in 2004 and in 2005...
mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 1/29/2013 6:59:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by texancapper:

Generally the team that has the least experience QB wins the SB. I still have a tough tough time believing Doug Williams won the SB back when.

Ice you seem to be a know it all.  Why dont you slow down and learn how to READ!!!  Apparently you just wasting your time proving his point when your trying to be the smart guy.  Jackass!!!

 

rhh7 PM rhh7
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Posted: 1/29/2013 7:38:24 PM
I honestly expect a Baltimore win by 11 or 12 points.
Skipster PM Skipster
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Posted: 1/29/2013 8:13:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:






i can believe it... i watched that game, and it was (in my opinion) the most one-sided Super Bowl that i have ever seen (out of roughly 35)...

by the way, the theory about the more experienced QB winning the SB doesn't exactly hold water in recent years, does it?


I won a massive pre-season sb pool on the skins that year.  most money i ever made on a game or ever will.  and i could get drunk as hell and not bother watching as it was over so soon.  doug williams was a beast.  that one day he was sensational.  that's all it takes.
SteveA2009 PM SteveA2009
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Posted: 1/29/2013 10:11:28 PM
To me it comes down to turnovers, and that is hard to predict:

   1) Flacco has been turnover-prone throughout his career, but NOT in his recent hot stretch (after the Ravens changed offensive coordinators).   The 49er defense is also the best he has faced, though Denver's was pretty good.

   2) Kaepernick has not been turning the ball over either, but the Ravens have a lot of smart veterans on D who know how to bait a QB into turnovers. 

So I find it difficult to predict which way the turnover battle goes, which makes picking the game very difficult.  

I do think that the Ravens have an edge at placekicker with Tucker over a gimpy Akers... if it comes down to a big kick I like the Ravens chances.

Obviously as a 17 year Raven season ticket holder I have a certain personal bias.  But I'll probably be on the Ravens and the points.
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