System play

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: System play
iamnotpeterose PM iamnotpeterose
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Posted: 1/26/2013 9:33:45 AM
 Based on what I see on covers I created a new system.  You fade the public , cause they are stupid, and bet with the sharps, who are smart.  So it goes like this, there are awhile bunch of people making 10 to 50 bets, they are the public, they are stupid and they will lose.  Then there are really smart people who bet lots and lots of money, they are the sharps and will win.  

Even though the public, who if you remember from above are stupid and will lose, make really small  bets; and the sharps make really big bets it seems like there are a lot more of the small bets that lose then the big bets that win, so sports books and Vegas can still make a profit.  The best part about this is you just look at a site or 2 to seen how the public is betting, you bet against them, and you win lots of money.   If you want to get real fancy you can start talking about reverse line movement, or read someone's thread who will tell you that they know a bookie or someone in vegas and the sharps are all over team x.  

As an added benefit you can feel superior to the public, you can can call them squares, because in part they don't bet enough money, or they do things like bet on a team the week after they scored a bunch of points on national tv the week before.  
mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 1/26/2013 9:50:16 AM
Sounds like your the stupid one.
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chargerfan10 PM chargerfan10
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Posted: 1/26/2013 12:06:06 PM
nothing new but i do agree public consensus should not be ignored.  after all, if it's that easy on paper then everyone would be winning.  in fact, the more agonizing it is for you to take a play, the better off you will remain objective and win some dinero for your ho
manstar10 PM manstar10
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Posted: 1/26/2013 1:15:48 PM
so your pick is?
Sharkysden PM Sharkysden
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Posted: 1/26/2013 5:31:25 PM
If it was that easy we'd all be talking about what we're going to spend our millions on next.  With reliable sources and getting the best line,  you can come out ahead by following the sharp trends, but not by much.  

Unfortunately, using percentages and betting against the public picks will only burn your money.    
touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/26/2013 6:49:51 PM
both publics and sharps clearly on ravens in this one, judging by everything i see on these boards plus line moves.... now what. 


iamnotpeterose PM iamnotpeterose
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:01:32 PM
9ers -3.5 Vegas never loses a Super Bowl.

The last few that the public won (like last year) don't count
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ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:17:45 PM
so what you're saying, is that if you bet a lot of money, you are a sharp and you will win...


well that is very clever indeed...
ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:18:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by touchdownjaysus:

both publics and sharps clearly on ravens in this one, judging by everything i see on these boards plus line moves.... now what. 





who's the "sharp" on this forum who is on the Ravens?
iamnotpeterose PM iamnotpeterose
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:42:56 PM
Apocalypse later yes everyone that bets a lot of money wins ( they are sharp) the squares always lose. No need to review match ups, trends, sats etc. you need to be sharp
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mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 1/28/2013 9:37:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by iamnotpeterose:

Apocalypse later yes everyone that bets a lot of money wins ( they are sharp) the squares always lose. No need to review match ups, trends, sats etc. you need to be sharp

This thread is a joke right?

iamnotpeterose PM iamnotpeterose
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Posted: 1/28/2013 12:44:08 PM
Yes, I thought that was apparent from my initial post, but it appears I was a little to subtle

I'm sick of people posting about the public, sharps, etc. I have seen a few people who incorporated certain aspects of money flows into their capping, but now it seems its enough to say that everyone betting on team a is an idiot and you are smart if you bet on team b
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mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 1/28/2013 1:15:57 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Sounds like your the stupid one.

Oh, I take this back then.  Cause I agree the public/sharp theory is dumb and lazy.

BadGnOmens PM BadGnOmens
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Posted: 1/28/2013 2:41:49 PM
Shew, thought u were serious...... we don't need any more dumb people...... good ruse
roare12 PM roare12
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Posted: 1/28/2013 3:28:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Sounds like your the stupid one.



***YOU'RE*** If you want to call someone stupid at least do it correctly
mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 1/28/2013 3:31:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by roare12:




***YOU'RE*** If you want to call someone stupid at least do it correctly

I think I did just fine.  This is a sports betting forum not a friggin english class.  Get a life.  Your on here correcting grammer.  WTF

iamnotpeterose PM iamnotpeterose
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Posted: 1/28/2013 9:25:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

I think I did just fine.  This is a sports betting forum not a friggin english class.  Get a life.  Your on here correcting grammer.  WTF


Don't bring your weakass gammar around my post, you can post again in here only if you can conjugate the verb - middle
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