NFL Conference Championships

First things first... I've been getting kicked around by the man in the playoffs and while many would take their ball and go home, I got some money to win back..  Tread carefully.  I'll have some thoughts on everything as the day moves along..

Atlanta Falcons +4 or better (waiting to see if a 4.5 pops)

Laying over a FG with a rookie QB against a guy who all but rarely loses at home and is carrying a monkey on his back that he can't win in the playoffs?  No disrespect to CKap who has been phenomenal, but for some reason I just can't rally around being 2-2 on the road with wins over swiss cheese defense of NO and NE and losses to the Rams and a pasting by Seattle.  No team in the NFL has allowed fewer passing TDs than the Atlanta Falcons.  Also near the top of the list is Seattle, Miami and Saint Louis, where cKap has thrown a combined 1 TD in four games vs. these opponents.  Again, the kid has been real good, but he won't even be the best QB on the field.  People love the story of CKap and the public embraces feel good opportunities.  However, if you're looking at last week's game at home vs Green Bay and riding that momentum, I think you need to take a step back and find that the two situations and matchups are complete polar opposites.

Back with more in a bit on this one and the AFC...

Go Spz Go!

thanks fellas, appreciate all the posts, both same side and opposing view.. 

Here's what I'll be playing in the AFC Championship, but i'll throw some thoughts down a bit later and put up how much on each.

Baltimore/New England Under 51.5

New England -7.5

Bigger play on the total for right now, but still looking everything over and watching the lines

Thanks everyone ...

Atlanta Falcons +4 (40 units to win 38.10)

Atlanta Falcons +175 (10 units to win 17.5)

Jacquizz Rodgers Over 54.5 Rush/Rec Yds (15 units to win 14.29)

CKap TD Passes Under 1.5 (15 units to win 13.64)

Baltimore/New England Under 51 (50 units to win 47.62)

Ridley +4.5 Rushing vs. Rice (20 units to win 19.05)

In his career following a 100+ rushing yard game, Ray Rice averages 58 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  In these 16 games, he has found the end zone only three times. I'd normally go under on Rice, but heavy juice at my shop, so hoping Ridley gets something on the ground and Rice struggles as history suggests. 

Re: the Under... Given Rice's troubles and the fact that Flacco is quite brutal on the road and coming off an all world performance away from home, I don't see where the offense comes from.  I think the defense will be better than last week and give NE some problems..  I think both teams stay in the 20's or lower.

sitting on a pending future of Atlanta +250 (8 units to win 20)

Posted in my divisional playoff thread