I would have to say that your statement is on point... Is there Value in ATLANTA ATS at +4 or higher..Absolutely... But, as much as I think it is important to find that edge in gambling, sometimes I have to go the other way.
Ex.. Wildcard Round: SEA @ WASH +3... It was hard not to take WASH +3 as a home dog (off of 7 straight wins) vs a SEA team that typically plays poorly on the road. The day before the game, I was still undecided for the sole reason that I saw Value in the line for Washington. I ended up going with SEA simply because of the distinct edges they had on defense, ST, and running game. Granted, I could have easily lost if it wern't for RGIII's injury, but that also played a part in my decision prior to the game.
Anyway, in this game I'm throwing the Value out the window, and doing almost the exact opposite by laying -200 on SF ML. It's just difficult for me to overlook the considerable advantages that the 49ers have over ATL on both sides of the ball.. There's also something about this line that makes me believe that it is more than just overvaluing the niners due to public perception.. If that were simply the case, I don't think it ever would have moved beyond -3 or -3.5.. The line as it currently stands makes me believe that the oddsmakers are baiting ATL money..
All things considered, I don't think that ATL +4 is a bad bet.. It's just hard for me to bet that ATL stays within the number, when I feel so strongly that SF wins the game. Regular season game, I'm siding with ATL and the points.. But during the playoffs I like to alter my betting strategies, by going with my gut, and taking the ML.
BOL on Sunday
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I would have to say that your statement is on point... Is there Value in ATLANTA ATS at +4 or higher..Absolutely... But, as much as I think it is important to find that edge in gambling, sometimes I have to go the other way.
Ex.. Wildcard Round: SEA @ WASH +3... It was hard not to take WASH +3 as a home dog (off of 7 straight wins) vs a SEA team that typically plays poorly on the road. The day before the game, I was still undecided for the sole reason that I saw Value in the line for Washington. I ended up going with SEA simply because of the distinct edges they had on defense, ST, and running game. Granted, I could have easily lost if it wern't for RGIII's injury, but that also played a part in my decision prior to the game.
Anyway, in this game I'm throwing the Value out the window, and doing almost the exact opposite by laying -200 on SF ML. It's just difficult for me to overlook the considerable advantages that the 49ers have over ATL on both sides of the ball.. There's also something about this line that makes me believe that it is more than just overvaluing the niners due to public perception.. If that were simply the case, I don't think it ever would have moved beyond -3 or -3.5.. The line as it currently stands makes me believe that the oddsmakers are baiting ATL money..
All things considered, I don't think that ATL +4 is a bad bet.. It's just hard for me to bet that ATL stays within the number, when I feel so strongly that SF wins the game. Regular season game, I'm siding with ATL and the points.. But during the playoffs I like to alter my betting strategies, by going with my gut, and taking the ML.
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