Posted:
#1
I have no explanation for my success in the playoffs the past two years. Would that the reg. season be so kind to me.
Reg. season 32-35-1 minus 7.0 stars
LW Wild Card Round 4-0 Plus 4 stars
Den-9 vs. Bal
This write-up comes with one caveat: I think I have seen Peyton Manning play in one cold weather game, that being the '06 season, divisional round at the Ravens. Colts won, 15-6. Supposed to be a high of 20 degrees in Den. Sat.
When you lay 9 pts. you'd better have a better QB than the other team does. Flacco is not the same guy on the road as he is at home. His QB rating is 25 pts. lower at 76 and his TD/Int ratio is 7/5. Not numbers that would inspire. The Ravens are 4-4, 2-5-1 on the road, their ATS wins vs. Cle and SD. Their ATS losses were to KC, Hst, Pbg Wsh and Cin. Their run game holds up pretty well with a 29/125 avg. on offense. Run defense is less than average at a per game of 33/140. Their 4 road victories came vs. opponents with a combined 22-42 record (34.3%). Their avg. road score over all was 18-20.5.
Denver went 7-1 at home, their wins vs. a combined 40-72 record (35.7%). Their avg. home score, overall, was 32.5-16. Broncs were amazingly consistent throughout the year. Their home pt. totals were 31,25,37,34,30,31,34, and 38. As you might imagine, Manning's home numbers are sterling at a 116 rating with 22 TDs and 3 ints. He avgs. 12 incomps. per game. Broncs D gives up avg. 23/80 on the ground while producing 32/132 on offense. They force an avg. 16 incompletions per game.
The Raven's victory over Indy last week was cause for great celebration and much merrymaking on the field after the game. Inherent in these kinds of celebrations is a tendency toward finality.
Den-8.5 vs. Bal one star
SF-2.5 vs. GB O/U 44.5
I'm not gonna go through a bunch of stats on this one. Everybody knows what Aaron Rodgers and that bunch of wide receivers can do. I have never heard of a big-time playoff bound, legit. Super Bowl type team changing QBs voluntarily in the middle of the season, as did the Niners, but, so be it. Kaepernick is currently rated the no. 3 QB in the league according to the ESPN Total QBR, so what do I know?
Packers have Woodson back and Matthews is full strength, apparently, but that defense still has a heck of a time sealing off the outside. I could see Kaepernick giving them fits out there while they are looking for Gore inside. GB is also thin at RB, although little Harris has done a fair job to date. You always worry about a guy that size, with no experience at that, picking up blitzes and fitting into the passing game in general.
Give SF the edge on defense and in the run game. Nobody is better than Aaron Rodgers, but will a suspect OL and a less-than-championship caliber defense prove too much to over come? I say it will. Taking a QB who is, essentially, a rookie, over a guy like Rodgers is probably suicide, but we'll go with Kaepernick and the Niners. I also don't see this one staying under.
SF-2.5 vs. GB one star Over 44.5 one star
Atl-1 vs. Sea
I can't get a handle on this one to save my life. Statistical evaluation, in the strictest sense, would point to a Seattle pick. Matt Ryan's home stats are pretty gruesome for a playoff QB: 11/9 TD/int ratio with a 90 QB rating. On the other hand, his over all numbers are 32/14 with a 99 rating. Falcons avg. home score was a 24.5-17 win in a 7-1, 4-4 over all home record vs. opps. with a 60-68 combined record. As I posted last week, Russell Wilson and the Sea Hawks have made vast improvements from the first half of the season. Hawks first 8 he compiled an 84 rating with 10 TDs and 8 ints. Second half has him at a 116 rating, 16 TDs and 2 ints. while going 7-1, 6-2.
Atlanta is in as tough a psychological situation as there is. They have, through losing three previous first round playoff games, obtained the "choke" reputation. I don't put any stock in that nonsense at all. The better team wins these things for the most part and the Falcons and Ryan were just second best in those contests. They are up against another extremely tough opponent here who has absolutely nothing to lose and who is as resilient as any I have seen for a while, as last week's victory after being down 2 TDs in the first quarter would seem to indicate.
Therein is the rub. How would the Washington game turn out of RGIII is not wounded and severely incapacitated? Red Skins certainly looked like they were on their way to an easy victory. First two drives resulted in TDs with a 3 and out for Sea in between. If Atl gets off to a fast start it is unlikely the Sea Hawks could come back in similar fashion.
Falcons have let some inferior teams take them to the wire in the dome this year. Oak and Arz gave the birds all they wanted and lost by 3 and 4 pts. respectively. However, Atl. handled Den., NO and the NYGs, at home going 3-0, 3-0.
Reluctantly, I say the Sea Hawks have had their run and I'm going to regard the Falcons -1 as a pretty good deal. We'll go with them.
Atl-1 vs. Sea One star
Reg. season 32-35-1 minus 7.0 stars
LW Wild Card Round 4-0 Plus 4 stars
Den-9 vs. Bal
This write-up comes with one caveat: I think I have seen Peyton Manning play in one cold weather game, that being the '06 season, divisional round at the Ravens. Colts won, 15-6. Supposed to be a high of 20 degrees in Den. Sat.
When you lay 9 pts. you'd better have a better QB than the other team does. Flacco is not the same guy on the road as he is at home. His QB rating is 25 pts. lower at 76 and his TD/Int ratio is 7/5. Not numbers that would inspire. The Ravens are 4-4, 2-5-1 on the road, their ATS wins vs. Cle and SD. Their ATS losses were to KC, Hst, Pbg Wsh and Cin. Their run game holds up pretty well with a 29/125 avg. on offense. Run defense is less than average at a per game of 33/140. Their 4 road victories came vs. opponents with a combined 22-42 record (34.3%). Their avg. road score over all was 18-20.5.
Denver went 7-1 at home, their wins vs. a combined 40-72 record (35.7%). Their avg. home score, overall, was 32.5-16. Broncs were amazingly consistent throughout the year. Their home pt. totals were 31,25,37,34,30,31,34, and 38. As you might imagine, Manning's home numbers are sterling at a 116 rating with 22 TDs and 3 ints. He avgs. 12 incomps. per game. Broncs D gives up avg. 23/80 on the ground while producing 32/132 on offense. They force an avg. 16 incompletions per game.
The Raven's victory over Indy last week was cause for great celebration and much merrymaking on the field after the game. Inherent in these kinds of celebrations is a tendency toward finality.
Den-8.5 vs. Bal one star
SF-2.5 vs. GB O/U 44.5
I'm not gonna go through a bunch of stats on this one. Everybody knows what Aaron Rodgers and that bunch of wide receivers can do. I have never heard of a big-time playoff bound, legit. Super Bowl type team changing QBs voluntarily in the middle of the season, as did the Niners, but, so be it. Kaepernick is currently rated the no. 3 QB in the league according to the ESPN Total QBR, so what do I know?
Packers have Woodson back and Matthews is full strength, apparently, but that defense still has a heck of a time sealing off the outside. I could see Kaepernick giving them fits out there while they are looking for Gore inside. GB is also thin at RB, although little Harris has done a fair job to date. You always worry about a guy that size, with no experience at that, picking up blitzes and fitting into the passing game in general.
Give SF the edge on defense and in the run game. Nobody is better than Aaron Rodgers, but will a suspect OL and a less-than-championship caliber defense prove too much to over come? I say it will. Taking a QB who is, essentially, a rookie, over a guy like Rodgers is probably suicide, but we'll go with Kaepernick and the Niners. I also don't see this one staying under.
SF-2.5 vs. GB one star Over 44.5 one star
Atl-1 vs. Sea
I can't get a handle on this one to save my life. Statistical evaluation, in the strictest sense, would point to a Seattle pick. Matt Ryan's home stats are pretty gruesome for a playoff QB: 11/9 TD/int ratio with a 90 QB rating. On the other hand, his over all numbers are 32/14 with a 99 rating. Falcons avg. home score was a 24.5-17 win in a 7-1, 4-4 over all home record vs. opps. with a 60-68 combined record. As I posted last week, Russell Wilson and the Sea Hawks have made vast improvements from the first half of the season. Hawks first 8 he compiled an 84 rating with 10 TDs and 8 ints. Second half has him at a 116 rating, 16 TDs and 2 ints. while going 7-1, 6-2.
Atlanta is in as tough a psychological situation as there is. They have, through losing three previous first round playoff games, obtained the "choke" reputation. I don't put any stock in that nonsense at all. The better team wins these things for the most part and the Falcons and Ryan were just second best in those contests. They are up against another extremely tough opponent here who has absolutely nothing to lose and who is as resilient as any I have seen for a while, as last week's victory after being down 2 TDs in the first quarter would seem to indicate.
Therein is the rub. How would the Washington game turn out of RGIII is not wounded and severely incapacitated? Red Skins certainly looked like they were on their way to an easy victory. First two drives resulted in TDs with a 3 and out for Sea in between. If Atl gets off to a fast start it is unlikely the Sea Hawks could come back in similar fashion.
Falcons have let some inferior teams take them to the wire in the dome this year. Oak and Arz gave the birds all they wanted and lost by 3 and 4 pts. respectively. However, Atl. handled Den., NO and the NYGs, at home going 3-0, 3-0.
Reluctantly, I say the Sea Hawks have had their run and I'm going to regard the Falcons -1 as a pretty good deal. We'll go with them.
Atl-1 vs. Sea One star
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