1. FG's. These are the 2 worst field goal % teams in the league. SF hit 69% and GB hit 63.6%. Atrocious by a wide margin. No other team missed more than 8 FG's all season, while these 2 squads missed 13 and 12 FG's, respectively. They were a combined 16-25 from 40-49 yards and 4-15 from 50+.
The coaches will probably have to alter or be more aggressive with their play calls after crossing midfield. They will want to to get into the red zone or possibly straight up go for TD's. Relying on these kickers to make 40+ yard FG's is going to be far from their initial mindset. I can see some unusual play calling occurring when either squad is within 40 yards of scoring. This may lead to some drive killers or punts. I suspect the coaches might be content to play a field position game early on(and possibly late, if the game is close) if their offenses are not doing as well in opponent's territory.
2. Defense. This matchup represents the two best ranked DVOA defenses of the four playoff games(#2 and #8). Rodgers is great, but GB was 17th in red zone scoring chances per game(3.0), a huge dropoff from last season when they had 4.1 chances. Now he is up against the #1 defense in red zone scoring chances allowed per game(2.2), who gave up only 38 drives into the red zone. The Packers scored 40 touchdowns through the air and only 9 rushing. Rodgers will likely have to carry the burden himself, but I don't see him having a great chance at throwing for 3 TD's. SF has only given up 3 or more passing TD's at Candlestick once in 18 games since Harbaugh arrived.(Brees in the playoff shootout last year had 4).
The obvious scoring concern(in addition to shaky Akers) for Niners fans is Colin K. Will he demonstrate he can lead his team to red zone drives and TD's, in a playoff setting, against a veteran GB D who had 51 sacks? I would not be surprised if he is kept on a bit of a leash at times, especially with Gore available to chew up minutes. I don't trust him yet, in his 8th start, to lead them into the red zone consistently.
Both teams are also top 10 in opponents' yards per point and opponents' point per play.
3.Turnovers. Both teams protect the ball well. Only 16 turnovers for each squad--tied for 2nd best in the league. SF was 4th and GB 2nd in turnovers per drive. The possibility of short fields and easy points is vastly decreased tomorrow.
In essence, I think both teams will be able to protect and move the ball at times, but the red zone will present major headaches with veteran and savvy defenses playing, a first year QB at the helm for SF and the FG kickers being so unpredictable.
1. FG's. These are the 2 worst field goal % teams in the league. SF hit 69% and GB hit 63.6%. Atrocious by a wide margin. No other team missed more than 8 FG's all season, while these 2 squads missed 13 and 12 FG's, respectively. They were a combined 16-25 from 40-49 yards and 4-15 from 50+.
The coaches will probably have to alter or be more aggressive with their play calls after crossing midfield. They will want to to get into the red zone or possibly straight up go for TD's. Relying on these kickers to make 40+ yard FG's is going to be far from their initial mindset. I can see some unusual play calling occurring when either squad is within 40 yards of scoring. This may lead to some drive killers or punts. I suspect the coaches might be content to play a field position game early on(and possibly late, if the game is close) if their offenses are not doing as well in opponent's territory.
2. Defense. This matchup represents the two best ranked DVOA defenses of the four playoff games(#2 and #8). Rodgers is great, but GB was 17th in red zone scoring chances per game(3.0), a huge dropoff from last season when they had 4.1 chances. Now he is up against the #1 defense in red zone scoring chances allowed per game(2.2), who gave up only 38 drives into the red zone. The Packers scored 40 touchdowns through the air and only 9 rushing. Rodgers will likely have to carry the burden himself, but I don't see him having a great chance at throwing for 3 TD's. SF has only given up 3 or more passing TD's at Candlestick once in 18 games since Harbaugh arrived.(Brees in the playoff shootout last year had 4).
The obvious scoring concern(in addition to shaky Akers) for Niners fans is Colin K. Will he demonstrate he can lead his team to red zone drives and TD's, in a playoff setting, against a veteran GB D who had 51 sacks? I would not be surprised if he is kept on a bit of a leash at times, especially with Gore available to chew up minutes. I don't trust him yet, in his 8th start, to lead them into the red zone consistently.
Both teams are also top 10 in opponents' yards per point and opponents' point per play.
3.Turnovers. Both teams protect the ball well. Only 16 turnovers for each squad--tied for 2nd best in the league. SF was 4th and GB 2nd in turnovers per drive. The possibility of short fields and easy points is vastly decreased tomorrow.
In essence, I think both teams will be able to protect and move the ball at times, but the red zone will present major headaches with veteran and savvy defenses playing, a first year QB at the helm for SF and the FG kickers being so unpredictable.
I don't usually like betting unders with Brady or Manning and Atlanta has had some anomalous events happen at home(2 games in which QB's threw 5 INT's, but the games somehow stayed under).
I don't usually like betting unders with Brady or Manning and Atlanta has had some anomalous events happen at home(2 games in which QB's threw 5 INT's, but the games somehow stayed under).
I was just thinking the same mw. SF may sign Cundiff which isn't a real upgrade either IMO. SF should also pound the run in this matchup and I'm taking them to beat the cheeseheads. SF -3 Under 45
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
I was just thinking the same mw. SF may sign Cundiff which isn't a real upgrade either IMO. SF should also pound the run in this matchup and I'm taking them to beat the cheeseheads. SF -3 Under 45
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