Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Debunking myths about the Patriots
revengeissweet1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
revengeissweet1
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 23996
Location: Ontario
#1
Posted: 1/8/2013 11:21:26 AM

Myth #1 - Patriots have had an easy schedule
Of the remaining playoff teams, New England has played 5 of the 7.  No one else can make that claim.  Of the playoff teams in the AFC, the Patriots, Ravens & Texans are all tied for Strength of Schedule at .496.  

Myth #2 - Patriots haven't beaten anyone all year
Their Strength of Victory (.466) is the highest of all the AFC playoff teams & 3rd amongst all playoff teams. Only team in the AFC with a higher SOV is Jacksonville. Some otehr examples: Denver (.385), Atlanta (.418) & Houston (.432)

Myth #3 - Patriots don't have a running game
New England finished the season with the 7th best Rushing Offense in football at 136.7 yards/game.  Only playoff teams left that are ahead of them are San Francisco & Seattle.  Atlanta was 29th.  Green Bay 20th.

"But they ran a lot because they had the lead a lot" - Denver led more than any other team in football yet the Broncos are down the list at 16th with 114.5 yards/game.

Myth #4 - Patriots passing game has taken a step back due to injuries
At 291 yards/game, they finished 4th in the NFL.  Only the Saints, Lions & Cowboys ahead of them.  1st among playoff teams.  Seattle 27th.  San Francisco 23rd.

Myth #5 - Patriots Defense SUCKS
Although they give up a lot of yards, they finished tied with Houston for 9th for Points Allowed.  They finished first in the NFL in Takeaway Margin though, +25 was best in the NFL.  2nd in the AFC was Houston at +12.  First in AFC in Interceptions (20), 4th in NFL. First in NFL in Fumbles (21).


Some extra tidbits:
- First in NFL in Punting Average (50.3)
- First in AFC, 4th in NFL in Offensive Interceptions (9)
- First in NFL in First Downs (444), Second was 382
- First in NFL in 3rd Down Conversions (48.7%)

Lastly, only because I was so amazed by the number.  Atlanta only gave up 415 yards due to penalties this year, 2nd best was the Giants at 578.  Dead Last? Baltimore at 1,127

quote
Mcmanus send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Mcmanus
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 4296
Location: United States
#2
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:27:23 PM
Why would anyone say they havent beaten anyone all year? Of the top of my head I know they beat Denver and Houston...Also Ridley had 1263 yards rushing so not sure why anyone would say they cant run.     You think they win it all this year revengeissweet?
quote
patarican send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
patarican
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 51
Location:
#3
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:31:17 PM
Great work. Too many people on here just rely on emotion and don't look at stats. This pats team is different. They have finally rebuilt the ENTIRE roster from the mid 2000's. No glaring holes in this team. 
quote
NOboy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
NOboy
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 3803
Location:
#4
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:54:44 PM
not sure how ppl consider defense ranks based on yards. bend but dont break defenses give up all the yards they want but dont allow points! and points are the most important thing! look at the falcons. bottom of the league on yards allowed. 4th in scoring. and funny how people dont consider turnovers when capping a defense. i see far too many ppl basing defrnses on yards allowed. good job bro. gl with your wagers  
quote
NOboy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
NOboy
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 3803
Location:
#5
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:56:00 PM
and the atlanta stat is something that had been recurring in the mike smith era. they arent a team that commits many penalties
quote
smallbet07 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
smallbet07
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 11468
Location: California
#6
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:42:32 PM
BOL bud
quote
ApocalypseLater send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ApocalypseLater
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4260
Location:
#7
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:50:19 PM
i have two more:


1) the Pats will cover against the Texans
2) the Pats will make it to the Super Bowl
quote
Playya send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Playya
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 104
Location:
#8
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:00:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

Myth #1 - Patriots have had an easy schedule
Of the remaining playoff teams, New England has played 5 of the 7.  No one else can make that claim.

Myth #2 - Patriots haven't beaten anyone all year


the played 5 playoff teams... right... they won 2 of 5 ... lol... do your homework  in addition to that: they were lucky to play denver quite early... 
quote
revengeissweet1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
revengeissweet1
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 23996
Location: Ontario
#9
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:03:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mcmanus:

Why would anyone say they havent beaten anyone all year? Of the top of my head I know they beat Denver and Houston...Also Ridley had 1263 yards rushing so not sure why anyone would say they cant run.     You think they win it all this year revengeissweet?

They could.  But as we saw in previous years, the best team doesn't always win it.  I like the Pats to the Super Bowl, possibly even hosting Balt next week. I like San Fran in the NFC but I have a futures on Atlanta.  The Patriots best chance, IMO, would be at Denver next week & vs Green Bay.  Houston will scare em a bit this week but it'll likely end around 35-21 or 38-20
quote
revengeissweet1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
revengeissweet1
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 23996
Location: Ontario
#10
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:06:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Playya:


the played 5 playoff teams... right... they won 2 of 5 ... lol... do your homework  in addition to that: they were lucky to play denver quite early... 

SOS has nothing to do with who won, try to keep up with the big boys.  SOV proves their wins have been more impressive.  Nice try junior.
quote
Playya send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Playya
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 104
Location:
#11
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:12:31 PM
wow they won many games against #14 teams instead of beating #17 teams... great...

2 out of 5 against playoff teams isn't that good, period.... little boy...
quote
idle_havoc
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
idle_havoc
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 2900
Location: Netherlands
              Antilles
#12
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:36:32 PM
thx for info 
quote
revengeissweet1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
revengeissweet1
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 23996
Location: Ontario
#13
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:39:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Playya:

wow they won many games against #14 teams instead of beating #17 teams... great...

2 out of 5 against playoff teams isn't that good, period.... little boy...

You're missing the point son.  When using SOS as a comparison, wins & losses mean, literally, nothing.  When a team with the Patriots SOS faces a team with Denver's SOS, SOS shows us that the Patriots have been more battle tested this season.  That tells us they are more likely to respond positively to a punch in the face because they've been there before where as a team with a lower SOS has not.

quote
xanthax send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
xanthax
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 263
Location:
#14
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:53:15 PM
Seeing lots of love for NE on this board. Don't know if its because they killed the Texans the last time out. The big question is do they cover the big spread in this game.

Your points our very convincing. All the favorites wont win outright again this week.
quote
Playya send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Playya
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 104
Location:
#15
Posted: 1/8/2013 3:08:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

You're missing the point son.  When using SOS as a comparison, wins & losses mean, literally, nothing.  When a team with the Patriots SOS faces a team with Denver's SOS, SOS shows us that the Patriots have been more battle tested this season.  That tells us they are more likely to respond positively to a punch in the face because they've been there before where as a team with a lower SOS has not.


you are right... they night be more tested... but you told us that they haven't had an easy schedule.... i think they had 6 very easy division games and their SOS is pumped by some playoff teams... and they lost 3/5 against them.... which tells me that they are not a worldbeater ... in other words: they lost against most of the teams which got their SOS up... that's why a high SOS does not favor Pats against team with a lower SOS ... 

in addition to that they haven't beaten any1 except very wounded texans and denver when so weren't ready for competition in the early part of the season... they just lost against tough opponents...


don't get me wrong... i think they can win the superbowl... they are a great team....  they got such a good offense and i love their TE... their defense can step up when it matters at some point of the game... but i don't like your first 2 arguments....

never mind, I'm sorry for being quite rude and sorry for my bad english cause i am from germany but i follow the nfl 
quote
Playya send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Playya
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 104
Location:
#16
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:40:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

You're missing the point son.  When using SOS as a comparison, wins & losses mean, literally, nothing.  When a team with the Patriots SOS faces a team with Denver's SOS, SOS shows us that the Patriots have been more battle tested this season.  That tells us they are more likely to respond positively to a punch in the face because they've been there before where as a team with a lower SOS has not.


that shows how much they were battle tested in the regular season... oh wait a minute... the ravens and 49ers tested them and beat them in the regular season... both are goin to the superbowl without the patriots... LOL 
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.