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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Fox's **NFL WILD CARD Picks and Analysis**
Jfox6546 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Top Bet |
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#1
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:06:38 PM
NFL/NCAAF: +58,850 (+117.7u) 156-96-3 (62%) ATS/Totals
NBA YTD: -7000 (-14u) 67-74-5 (48%) ATS/Totals
NCAAB YTD: 
 +0 (+0.0u)
 18-17 (51%) ATS/Totals

BOWL GAMES Sides/Totals: +2,700 (+5.4u)  14-10-1
NFL PLAYOFFS: 

1unit= $500
Max Bet = $2000

$1500 Packers -7 -120
Ok so we get a rematch of last weeks game where the Vikings pulled out a win at home against these Packers to secure a spot in todays game at Green Bay. Green By was without a couple of key players last week and will get Randall Cobb and most likely Charles Woodson for this game today. Those two players are 2 of the most important players for the Packers on each side of the ball. Randall Cobb is a playmaker and the Packers use him in many different schemes, as well as on special teams. Cobb has proven to be one of Rodgers favorite targets as the season has progressed and he can stretch any defense. The Vikings had a difficult time stopping the Packers in the second half, but we're able to put up 37 and out score the Packers. The Vikings put everything they had into the game last weekend, and the Packers were able to hang around, but didn't have the sense of urgency, especially on defense because they didn't have much to gain by winning that game. I don't see AP being able to put up another 200 yard performance here, and I'm betting Ponder turns it over a couple times. If you watched the game last week, the ball bounced the Vikings way more than once, and the Packers missed out on a lot of chances to put that game away. In the end I don't see the Vikings being able to match the intensity on the road here as they had last week. Rodgers is playing at too high of a level and i think this game will get away from the Vikings by the end of the 3rd qtr. The Vikings just won't be able to match the Packers point for point on the scoreboard, and once AP is slowed down Ponder wont be able to sustain drives with the pass.Packers win 38-17.
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#2
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:06:52 PM
$1500 Bengals +5 
Texans regressed as the season progressed, losing 3 of their last 4 and failing to get a first round bye that seemed all but certain a month ago. It's hard to tell how this Texans team is going to react, but they are at home so that should help them a bit here. What I like the most about the Bengals tho is their front 7, and their ability to stop the run and get pressure on opposing Qb. This Bengals team is playing with tons of confidence as they have won 7 of 8 SU and ATS. They also have some weapons on offense that I think will cause some trouble for this Texans defense.

Bengals Offense vs. Texans Defense:
Bengals aren't the greatest offensive team but they can hit the big play every now and then with AJ Green outside. The big thing for this offense is to make sure they don't turn it over, because they have a defense that can keep them in any game. The Bengals will likely try to establish their running game, although I don't think they are going to have too much success agains this Texans front 7. I will note that this Texans run defense hasnt been nearly as good in the last month as they were in the beginning of the year.  I'm counting on Andy Dalton and these receivers to take advantage of this shaky Texans secondary. If they can put up around 20 points, and not give the game away by turning it over, I think the Bengals pull the upset here. 

Texans Offense vs. Bengals Defense:
As I said before, it has all started to fall apart for the Texans, and that includes this offensives ability to put points on the board. In the last 4 games the Bengals have only put up 65 points, a average of around 16 per game. That's not a good recipe for getting wins. It's seemed that opposing defense have figured our this Texans offense, which is predicated on a strong running game and the using Play action for big chunks down the field. They have failed tho in recent weeks to establish their running game early, and teams aren't biting on the play action when they use it. Also they are limited in their use of play action because they are getting into longer down and distances. Making this team into a drop back passing team is an advantage for the Bengals here. The Bengals defense, excluding the game against Bmore last week when the game was being played with the second string, hasn't allowed more than 100 yards on the ground in the past 6 weeks. They are also getting pressure on opposing Qb and getting sacks. This pressure is leading to turnovers as well.  I'm taking the hot team here with the Bengals. Bengals win 23-20. 
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#3
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:10:28 PM
agreed on both, good luck!
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#4
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:12:40 PM
Good luck, Al.
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#5
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:21:39 PM
On the above, it says the Bengals only put up 65 points in 4 games.... I meant the Texans
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#6
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:58:38 PM
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#7
Posted: 1/4/2013 11:11:55 PM

I"m with you on both games...Rodgers getting back a full receiving core will be dangerous...and if they put up points early they'll force Ponder to throw and get the ball out of APs hands.

GB -7 is the play for me (I do think its worth buying 0.5 points in this case)

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#8
Posted: 1/4/2013 11:36:55 PM
In reference to your write up

If the Packers won, wouldn't they of clinched the #2 seed?  Or at least still be alive for it?  I thought they had a ton to play for in that game.

Just checking.
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#9
Posted: 1/4/2013 11:49:52 PM
They would have clinched the #2 seed with a win vs the vikings sir. 
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#10
Posted: 1/4/2013 11:58:29 PM
peace handshake
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#11
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:00:23 AM
Nice analysis fox, as usual, i often focus apart from obviously the team and matchups, on the line, what are the lines telling us? What are they trying to make you bet? The trick is trying to figure that out and do the opposite, for me you are spot on both of them, i think the lines are begging for houston and minnesota money... 
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#12
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:04:45 AM
NO DOUBT, CINCY OWN HERE M/L ALL DAY BABY
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#13
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:20:43 AM
Best of luck
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#14
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:26:14 AM
I was thinking about going opposite on both, but I just can't trust myself 

Looks like Greenbay is now -9.5.  Is that still a good play
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#15
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:36:56 AM
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#16
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:40:04 AM
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#17
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:47:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 2001bmw:

  
Looks like Greenbay is now -9.5.  Is that still a good play

Still 7.5 or 8 in most places. Yes, still good bet. Shouldn't be close.
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#18
Posted: 1/5/2013 6:50:31 AM
Guys, Right here on covers the line is 9.5. Why so high here and 7.5 or 8 other places. Makes no sense to me.
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#19
Posted: 1/5/2013 6:52:42 AM
lol... on both myself and a little on Bengals ML, GL
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#20
Posted: 1/5/2013 8:56:48 AM
GREAT WRITE UPS...
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#21
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:31:31 AM
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#22
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:37:08 AM
Thx guys! Bol!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#23
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:39:22 AM
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#24
Posted: 1/5/2013 11:00:31 AM
FOX any value on GB at -7.5???
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#25
Posted: 1/5/2013 11:05:11 AM
Like both today jfox.


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