Posted:
#1
YTD: 46-31 ATS
Awful card this week. Hit Cleveland +13 at the open but got out of it and will eat the juice, just not sure they score enough. Only like these two:
Philadelphia +6
I believe we have a handful of things coming together that make this a nice bet.
First of all I'm selling high on Washington. They've won and covered 5 in a row and are priced almost a FG higher than they have been at any point this season. No question their price is high here. It's high because of the wins and the fact they are the flavor of the month and "need to win".
Also going against Washington is the situation. For the past 5 games they've been able to play loose and with the "nothing to lose" attitude. Now all a sudden they find themselves in the playoffs if the season ended today. All they have to do to make the playoffs is win out, they now control their own destiny. This is a very, very dangerous situation especially for a young team. For 5 weeks they were the hunters and now BAM they have become the hunted. These are the situations where teams choke because instead of playing loose, carefree and with a "who cares we've got nothing to lose" attitude they now start to get tight and look at it like "ok let's make sure we don't play reckless, and don't make mistakes". If Washington was in this spot last week there is no chance they would have let Cousins air it out 37 times. Making matters worse is they are favored over a clearly inferior team so the mindset further emphasizes not making mistakes because if they don't then they "should" win.
The play loose and nothing to lose attitude in this game shifts to the Eagles. There's nothing more they'd like than to knock a division rival off and play spoiler. This team has actually played pretty well the last three weeks. Basically a wire to wire cover in Dallas, a SU win in Tampa and although they were blown out last week they actually led at halftime but a million turnovers in the 2nd half did them in. Philly is still playing a lot of young guys and given this is a big division game I don't see this as a possible scenario where a bad team mails in a late season game. McCoy back really gives the Eagles some great depth at RB with him and Brown.
Another interesting angle here is Andy Reid. This is almost assuredly his last home game in Philadelphia. Most will be happy for change but deep down I think the fans appreciate what he's done and what he's been through (especially this year with his son being found dead at training camp). Every player on the roster was brought in by Reid and given their shot by Reid. A lot of guys have not had another head coach at the pro level. Philly has been in turmoil this year but there's never really been a moment where players have said Reid is a jackass or that they've openly quit on him. This is similar to when Mike Holmgren left Seattle. It was a Week 16 game and everyone knew it was his last game there. He'd given them 10 years and quite a bit of success. Seattle was a dead team going nowhere but beat a 9-5 Jets team that "needed to win" that day and all the players said they wanted to win for the coach. Maybe it's not completely the same situation here but I believe the players and fans will want to send Reid off with a win.
Teaser: Detroit +10.5 & Houston -2.5
Detroit: I've read what the Falcons have said about not letting up like they did against Carolina but I'm not completely buying it. They just played the statement game of the year and now on a short week on the road you're telling me they're going to be equally as pumped up to the a 4-10 team that has lost 6 in a row? I'm not buying it.
I bet against the Lions last week in an obvious spot where they would lay down. This week is completely different however as they enter off a truly embarrassing road game much like Arizona did against Detroit. They also get a prime time home game and have a chance to play spoiler. The fact that this is a Saturday night game may also bring one of the rowdiest crowds of the year. There is talent on this team and I believe they show up motivated and hungry after playing the worst game this group has played together.
I like the teaser over the spread because while I like the Lions to show up and the Falcons to not have the energy they had last week, at the end of the day the Lions are the best team in the NFL at blowing games and finding ways to lose. The Falcons are also the best team at finding ways to win close games. The +10.5 offers plenty of cushion. In fact the 4-10 Lions had not lost a game before last week's open lay down by more than 10 points all year. Before last week's statement game the 12-2 Falcons had only won three games by more than 10 points and two of them came on extra rest (opening day and off a bye).
Houston: The Texans still have a lot to play for here as a win locks up a bye and homefield. Kubiak was also quite purturbed after the offense only managed 1 TD last week against one of the worst defenses in the league. They should show up and play well so I think any hangover after getting the Pats loss bad taste out of the mouth probably isn't in play.
We know what it takes to beat Houston. Their two losses have come against Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady and high-powered, explosive passing attacks that have exposed their secondary. The Texans do not lose to run based teams. Even if Peterson runs wild again Christian Ponder and his no-name receivers are going to have to make plays to win. Ponder has been bad all year but he's been absolutely terrible against good defenses. Going up against defenses ranked in the top half of the league in scoring Ponder is completing 53% of his passes for 115 yards per game, 4.3 yards per attempt, 5 TD and 7 INT for a pathetic QB rating of 56.8. I don't care how good the run game is, Minnesota is not beating a 12-2 team on the road with QB play like that.
Maybe this is cherry picking but one of the reasons Peterson is putting up insane numbers is at least once or twice a game he is ripping of mammoth long runs. Over his last seven games he's had nine runs of over 28 yards and seven runs of 50+ yards. Those nine runs have represented 47% of his total rush yards over that span. Take them out (and yes could be cherry picking here and I get why) and he's averaging 4.3 YPC on all his other runs over the same span. Still great but not off the charts. The reason I bring it up is although the Texans run defense is pretty good, the one thing they have excelled at is not allowing the explosive run play. The longest run they've given up all season is only 28 yards which is lowest in the league and their three rush TD's given up are also the fewest. If they can limit Peterson's insanely long runs, which they've been able to do all year, then it should be more than enough to win this game even with a bad game from the Houston offense.
GL this week gents.
Awful card this week. Hit Cleveland +13 at the open but got out of it and will eat the juice, just not sure they score enough. Only like these two:
Philadelphia +6
I believe we have a handful of things coming together that make this a nice bet.
First of all I'm selling high on Washington. They've won and covered 5 in a row and are priced almost a FG higher than they have been at any point this season. No question their price is high here. It's high because of the wins and the fact they are the flavor of the month and "need to win".
Also going against Washington is the situation. For the past 5 games they've been able to play loose and with the "nothing to lose" attitude. Now all a sudden they find themselves in the playoffs if the season ended today. All they have to do to make the playoffs is win out, they now control their own destiny. This is a very, very dangerous situation especially for a young team. For 5 weeks they were the hunters and now BAM they have become the hunted. These are the situations where teams choke because instead of playing loose, carefree and with a "who cares we've got nothing to lose" attitude they now start to get tight and look at it like "ok let's make sure we don't play reckless, and don't make mistakes". If Washington was in this spot last week there is no chance they would have let Cousins air it out 37 times. Making matters worse is they are favored over a clearly inferior team so the mindset further emphasizes not making mistakes because if they don't then they "should" win.
The play loose and nothing to lose attitude in this game shifts to the Eagles. There's nothing more they'd like than to knock a division rival off and play spoiler. This team has actually played pretty well the last three weeks. Basically a wire to wire cover in Dallas, a SU win in Tampa and although they were blown out last week they actually led at halftime but a million turnovers in the 2nd half did them in. Philly is still playing a lot of young guys and given this is a big division game I don't see this as a possible scenario where a bad team mails in a late season game. McCoy back really gives the Eagles some great depth at RB with him and Brown.
Another interesting angle here is Andy Reid. This is almost assuredly his last home game in Philadelphia. Most will be happy for change but deep down I think the fans appreciate what he's done and what he's been through (especially this year with his son being found dead at training camp). Every player on the roster was brought in by Reid and given their shot by Reid. A lot of guys have not had another head coach at the pro level. Philly has been in turmoil this year but there's never really been a moment where players have said Reid is a jackass or that they've openly quit on him. This is similar to when Mike Holmgren left Seattle. It was a Week 16 game and everyone knew it was his last game there. He'd given them 10 years and quite a bit of success. Seattle was a dead team going nowhere but beat a 9-5 Jets team that "needed to win" that day and all the players said they wanted to win for the coach. Maybe it's not completely the same situation here but I believe the players and fans will want to send Reid off with a win.
Teaser: Detroit +10.5 & Houston -2.5
Detroit: I've read what the Falcons have said about not letting up like they did against Carolina but I'm not completely buying it. They just played the statement game of the year and now on a short week on the road you're telling me they're going to be equally as pumped up to the a 4-10 team that has lost 6 in a row? I'm not buying it.
I bet against the Lions last week in an obvious spot where they would lay down. This week is completely different however as they enter off a truly embarrassing road game much like Arizona did against Detroit. They also get a prime time home game and have a chance to play spoiler. The fact that this is a Saturday night game may also bring one of the rowdiest crowds of the year. There is talent on this team and I believe they show up motivated and hungry after playing the worst game this group has played together.
I like the teaser over the spread because while I like the Lions to show up and the Falcons to not have the energy they had last week, at the end of the day the Lions are the best team in the NFL at blowing games and finding ways to lose. The Falcons are also the best team at finding ways to win close games. The +10.5 offers plenty of cushion. In fact the 4-10 Lions had not lost a game before last week's open lay down by more than 10 points all year. Before last week's statement game the 12-2 Falcons had only won three games by more than 10 points and two of them came on extra rest (opening day and off a bye).
Houston: The Texans still have a lot to play for here as a win locks up a bye and homefield. Kubiak was also quite purturbed after the offense only managed 1 TD last week against one of the worst defenses in the league. They should show up and play well so I think any hangover after getting the Pats loss bad taste out of the mouth probably isn't in play.
We know what it takes to beat Houston. Their two losses have come against Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady and high-powered, explosive passing attacks that have exposed their secondary. The Texans do not lose to run based teams. Even if Peterson runs wild again Christian Ponder and his no-name receivers are going to have to make plays to win. Ponder has been bad all year but he's been absolutely terrible against good defenses. Going up against defenses ranked in the top half of the league in scoring Ponder is completing 53% of his passes for 115 yards per game, 4.3 yards per attempt, 5 TD and 7 INT for a pathetic QB rating of 56.8. I don't care how good the run game is, Minnesota is not beating a 12-2 team on the road with QB play like that.
Maybe this is cherry picking but one of the reasons Peterson is putting up insane numbers is at least once or twice a game he is ripping of mammoth long runs. Over his last seven games he's had nine runs of over 28 yards and seven runs of 50+ yards. Those nine runs have represented 47% of his total rush yards over that span. Take them out (and yes could be cherry picking here and I get why) and he's averaging 4.3 YPC on all his other runs over the same span. Still great but not off the charts. The reason I bring it up is although the Texans run defense is pretty good, the one thing they have excelled at is not allowing the explosive run play. The longest run they've given up all season is only 28 yards which is lowest in the league and their three rush TD's given up are also the fewest. If they can limit Peterson's insanely long runs, which they've been able to do all year, then it should be more than enough to win this game even with a bad game from the Houston offense.
GL this week gents.
0
DO THE MATH
Excellent stuff Wolf. I love coaching angles like that.
Hot Forum Topics
