|Not sure why so many people think Colin is betting on "garbage teams". Let's go through them.
Posted: 12/7/2012 2:34:46 PM
First off, Cleveland over KC. KC is an absolute garbage team, however Cleveland is not. The Browns are 4-8 and three of their losses are by 4 points or less.
Second is Tennessee. Ok, Tennessee is 28th out of 32 teams in terms of their sagarin rating. But, guess what, Indy is 23rd. Why, because Indy's strength of schedule is one of the worst in the NFL. Add-in that this a great situational play against Indy, with a huge game on deck, and I don't see the problem in this one.
Third is B-more. No one will call them a garbage team. Add-in that they have beat up on teams whose defenses are ranked outside of the top 20 and I don't care that the Skins have RGIII, I agree with taking the Ravens.
Fourth is Dallas. Dallas and Cincy are basically the same team in terms of record with Cincy being one game better. Meanwhile, Cincy has been relatively healthy, while Dallas has not. Well, they have Murray again, so that should do nothing but help I would suspect.
Finally, we have Carolina. While the Panthers may seem like a garbage team, try this on for size. The Panthers have the third ranked SOS while the Falcons rank dead last in SOS. On paper if you look at record only, it seems like a huge mismatch, but that SOS discrepancy is one reason I don't think that is the case.