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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL WEEK 14 Picks & Analysis
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Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 634
Location: Florida
#1
Posted: 12/5/2012 2:12:00 PM
Oakland (+10.5):  Division game and McFadden is back.  Oakland seems to only come ready to play a few times a year and I believe this is one of those spots.  Peyton will get his big plays in the air and Oakland will keep the ball on the ground against that stout defense, but I see a low scoring, close game kind of like we saw against KC.  23 - 17 Denver.
Washington (-1):  With more than 50% of the public on Washington this line will go up to about a FG as it opened as a pk.  Washington 5-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.  RG III and the Redskins know that they pretty much need to win out to make a run at the playoffs.  Baltimore's D isn't what it once was and Suggs is most likely out for this game.  I don't trust Flacco to win big games and the Redskins crowd will be pumped up for this one as they were vs the G-Men.  19 - 24 Skins.
Cleveland (-6.5):  Time has set in for the KC players to deal with their loss of teammate Belcher and after the good performance against Denver and Carolina, they come back to the KC team that we all know.  The Over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings and I think that Cleveland puts up a lot of points, forcing KC to try to catch up in the air.  21 - 36 Cleveland.
Tennessee (+5.5):  Fading the Colts and fading the public in this one.  I understand that Indy pretty much needs this win, but this Titans team will play hard against a division opponent.  The Colts D will not be able to stop C.Johnson and the underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5.  Indy has 2 more games against Houston and may be looking ahead a bit.  22 - 21 Tennessee.
Jacksonville (+2.5):  Going against RLM, J-ville opening as 1-point dogs with 58% of the public on Jacksonville.  I can't NOT fade the Jets and even though Sanchez got the nod to start but he knows McElroy will have helmet in hand ready to go.  Both teams are plagued with injuries.  Jacksonville is selling additional tickets with Tebow coming back to town and the Jaguars would love to spoil the Jets playoff hopes.  Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. 9 - 13 Jacksonville.
Chicago (-2.5):  The line is moving with the public as it opened at -1 and 64% of the public is on Chicago.  Minnesota is a healthier team right now, but as long as the Chicago D can stop AD (which I believe they will hold him to under 100 yards) the Bears can comfortably win this game.  33 - 20 Chicago.
Carolina (+3.5):  RLM as 88% of the public is on Atlanta (as they should be) and the line dropped a 1/2 a point.  This line should be ATL -6.5, especially after Carolina lost to KC last week.  Falcons can clinch a first round bye this weekend with a W and although I think they win, Carolina doesn't make it easy.  Panthers break their 0-5 ATS @ home streak.  28 - 26 Atlanta.
Philadelphia (+8):  RLM as 70% of the public is on Tampa Bay and the line dropped a point.  The Eagles are done and Foles can now move forward as THE starting QB in Philly so they will probably just lay it all out on the field and be tough to prepare for.  Philly just fired the D-line coordinator and the defense is abysmal, but I think that 8 points is a few too many to give to a team that has nothing to lose (aside from the head coach).  Bryce Brown will be the X-factor (if he can hang onto the ball) and I believe this game goes well over in the 2nd half.  31 - 37 Tampa Bay.
St. Louis (+3):  Buffalo 3-1 ATS as a home fave (-0.5 to -6.5), but have recently been plagued with injuries, including the starting Center.  St. Louis is high after the big win against San Fran and although they are a dome team it's not supposed to be very cold for this game.  23 - 18 St. Louis.
Cincinnati (-3):  The line opened at Cincy -2.5 and with 54% of the public on them this line is slowly moving upwards, most likely closing at close to -4.  Murray is back and Cincy struggles against good defenses, but Cincy has been playing really well as a whole and I think they patch up their mistakes from last weekend.  Baltimore is struggling and Pittsburgh isn't 100% and Cincy can see light at the end of the tunnel.  29 - 35 Cincinnati.
San Fran (-10):  DD favorites most likely starting a rookie QB is hard for me to put money on, but after that sorry loss last week and now coming home after the 2 week road stand, San Fran will throttle Miami.  Jake Long is out, the Miami D will get exposed, and Tannehil will be knocked down/hit/sacked quite a bit.  This game will be done before the second half even starts.  13 - 33 San Fran.
NY Giants (-6):  Bounce back game for NY, at home, facing a team that is not going to make the playoffs.  The money going the Saints way will probably balance this line out to -3.5 at kickoff.  Brees will have a 300+ yd game, but the Giants NEED this game as they don't have a great record within their division and have Atlanta, Baltimore, and Philly coming up.  37 - 41 G-Men.
Seattle (-10.5):  I like this # along with 59% of the public and would only question something if it dropped to -9.  Lindley is a bum of a QB and Arizona is going in the complete opposite direction as Seattle.  Russell Martin has shown that he can manage games well, and although Seattle may have some CB issues I don't think it will matter against a QB that will be on his back the whole game.  12 - 28 Seattle.
Detroit (+7):  Seems like a good spot to take GB now that it dropped from -7.5 and almost 70% of the public is on the Pack.  Detroit generally plays GB tough and Detroit is due to cover after the laughable last two weeks.  I think Detroit leads most of the game, playing tough D and passing the ball efficiently, but we see the same ole' story and they lose in the closing minutes.  24 - 26 GB.
Houston (+3.5):  Too many critical injuries on NE and JJ Watt will give the NE O-line a hard time from start to finish.  With Edelman out, NE will most likely not have the field position they usually do, having to rely on forcing some throws down field early in drives.  Houston is on a mission and NE has been here before and knows they pretty much have the division locked down.  I see an upset (if you even want to call it that) which hits the OVER late.  32 - 29 Houston.

Taking:  Washington -1, Chicago -2.5, Carolina +3.5, Cincinnati -3, San Francisco -10, Detroit +7, Houston +3.5.
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