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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 14
Polar_Bear
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#1
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:23:12 AM
67-46 +1860

Raiders +10.5

Broncos/Raiders Over 49.5 -110 110/100
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Polar_Bear
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#2
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:50:28 AM
Yes the Raiders are horrific. They are my team and I watch them every weekend and have been since the mid 70's when they were the baddest men on earth but the good kind of bad. So please don't remind me how terrible they are and that they are a joke etc. etc. I'm well aware of their issues. It's also not a homer play or just a play based solely on the large points, mind you the fat number at home sure does not bother me.

I was on the Bengals 2 weeks ago to cover a 9 spot over my Raiders and cashed so I would not be afraid of the points or to go against my team. I am 5-2-1 betting on Raiders games this season so there is no blind faith involved here and there are situations for any team to be bet on and I think this is one.

A few quick reasons.

Inter divisional game.

One of the most hated rivalries in the NFL.

The Broncos have to travel on the short week while the Raiders do not.

McFadden and Goodson were both going to play against Cleveland as they were upgraded to questionable late but they were held back for this game, or at lease that is the way I am seeing. Everyone talks about McFadden but they young Goodson is probably the most explosive player they have and a threat to score at any given time. Getting these two back would make a big difference but more importantly them being held back tells me that the Raiders are taking this primetime game seriously and will play with some pride in a game that amounts to being their super bowl this season.

Terrelle Pryor was also supposed to see action against the Browns but despite being activated he too was held back for this game one can only assume. My thinking is they did not want to give the Broncos any video to study because the Raiders have already said he will be used in certain situations and in certain package plays so obviously they wanted this to be fresh for this game. Another thing that tells me they are taking this game seriously.

Now if they were not serious enough about playing a team who embarrassed them and whose very guts they hate, their rookie coach Dennis Allen has had to leave the team to go be with his father who has a very serious medical issue. Greg Knapp has taken over control of the football team until then. Some of the Raiders players have already expressed in interviews that their hearts are with their young coach during this time and that the best thing they can do is what he would want, and that is to focus and get as ready as they can be to play the Denver Broncos. Dennis Allen plans to be back for game day and standing on the sidelines to go to war with his men Thursday night.

My last reason is pretty obvious. And that is simply that 10.5 points is a lot for a pro football team on their home field and I don't care who they are.
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#3
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:57:10 AM
Die hard raiders fan too and I think they keep this close as well. Any thoughts on the Broncos TT? I can easily see them hanging 30+ on the Raiders.
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#4
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:00:59 AM
Hey baggy, I see a night of big plays. Hard to imagine the Raiders slowing Peyton down. They will have to keep it close with scores which is what I'm banking on. I'm not a team totals guy. What number do you see on the Broncos? You would think they get around that 30 mark for sure.
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#5
Posted: 12/4/2012 3:10:59 AM
a lil AFC West Champs hangover could definitely help your cause
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#6
Posted: 12/4/2012 3:19:18 AM
I played this same bet just now prior to seeing ur post Wiley because of the 10.5 and watching the Philadelphia/Dallas game with the same #. GL Bear
Posted using a mobile device.
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#7
Posted: 12/4/2012 3:29:55 AM

Nice write-up.

Good perspective on the injuries, etc...I can def see a back-door cover here.

GL on your plays

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#8
Posted: 12/4/2012 4:06:43 AM
It sure would be nice to have Faddy and Goodson back this week. Its been a horrible season up to this point but I really do see Raiders stepping up in primetime and show some explosiveness. Hopefully we can get the defense that showed up in the Raiders/Atlanta game a few weeks ago. I'll be at the game so fingers crossed and plenty of behind puckering and may the the Silver and Black get a straight up win. GL Polar_Bear
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#9
Posted: 12/4/2012 8:09:19 AM
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TREE88
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#10
Posted: 12/4/2012 8:35:33 AM
Gl bud. Dang Raiders haven't been kind to me this yr. I may try em again in this spot though.
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Polar_Bear
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#11
Posted: 12/4/2012 11:26:06 AM
baker...Hope so brother

Wussie...And it just dropped to 10 like I thought it would

Magic...I'll take it any way I can get it buddy

Buddha...Have a great time! I expect everyone to be fully engaged for this game

kaptain...

Tree...It's not an easy thing to bet on my Raiders this I know, GL with what you decide 
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Polar_Bear
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#12
Posted: 12/4/2012 11:27:20 AM
67-46 +1860

Raiders +10.5

Broncos/Raiders Over 49.5 -110 110/100

Ravens +1 +105 100/105

Chiefs +5.5 -110 110/100

Cowboys +3 -110 110/100
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#13
Posted: 12/4/2012 11:30:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by xbaggypants:

Die hard raiders fan too and I think they keep this close as well. Any thoughts on the Broncos TT? I can easily see them hanging 30+ on the Raiders.

question; if yousee DEN hanging 30+, then you must feel confident about OAK putting up 20+ ... they haven't been shining lately

i could never bet on the Raiders but DD home dogs vs a Division Opp. does look like a good spot play
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#14
Posted: 12/4/2012 11:35:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:




Terrelle Pryor was also supposed to see action against the Browns but despite being activated he too was held back for this game one can only assume. My thinking is they did not want to give the Broncos any video to study because the Raiders have already said he will be used in certain situations and in certain package plays so obviously they wanted this to be fresh for this game. Another thing that tells me they are taking this game seriously.


really? i was wondering when they would use him in any capacity. he' was a hell of a ball player in HS and college and I've been wondering how that would translate to the NFL. 
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thehuntman
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#15
Posted: 12/4/2012 11:55:13 AM

Hey PB.....I like all your reasoning in taking our Raiders and I hope they finally show up for a game and show a little pride. If they can't get up for a Broncos game then they are even worse off than we think. Personally I do hope they do lose this game and lose out the season strictly for the upcoming draft. They are thin all over their roster because of the Seymour and Palmer trades and must start rebuilding for the future. A nice top 5 pick will be a start and even though they have no second rounder this year they can still pick up some good players in the later rounds.

After watching these guys live a couple of weeks ago my buddies and I decided they were strickly a bet against or nothing team the rest of the way ( hit nicely on Cleveland -1 last week) but will have to take a closer look into this one.

Always love your insight and GL  

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#16
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:01:16 PM
BOL polar
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#17
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:07:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Hey baggy, I see a night of big plays. Hard to imagine the Raiders slowing Peyton down. They will have to keep it close with scores which is what I'm banking on. I'm not a team totals guy. What number do you see on the Broncos? You would think they get around that 30 mark for sure.


30 -118
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Polar_Bear
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#18
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:46:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nuggins:


really? i was wondering when they would use him in any capacity. he' was a hell of a ball player in HS and college and I've been wondering how that would translate to the NFL. 
Here is the link to Pryor playing in the Browns game. Now I am gambling with my thought process a bit here, but the only logical conclusion as to why they suddenly decided to not let him play versus the Browns is that they were saving the play packages involving him for this game. That would tell me they really want this game. Whether or not they get it is another kettle of fish. He certainly brings a different dynamic to their offense not to mention a boost in energy.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1428157-terrelle-pryor-expected-to-see-action-vs-browns-sunday
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#19
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:48:44 PM

The Raiders will definitely cover this game, their last game dictates that selection.... Not so sure about the over. The two don't coincide with one another because the Raiders will not score a ton of points.They will run the ball - because they have to - and John Fox will be content to take field goals on an opponent's field.

I see a similar game Denver had against the Chiefs. If the Raiders keep it close, the game cannot go over. That's just simple logic.

Raiders + 10.5 & Under 49.5

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Polar_Bear
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#20
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:53:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thehuntman:

Hey PB.....I like all your reasoning in taking our Raiders and I hope they finally show up for a game and show a little pride. If they can't get up for a Broncos game then they are even worse off than we think. Personally I do hope they do lose this game and lose out the season strictly for the upcoming draft. They are thin all over their roster because of the Seymour and Palmer trades and must start rebuilding for the future. A nice top 5 pick will be a start and even though they have no second rounder this year they can still pick up some good players in the later rounds.

After watching these guys live a couple of weeks ago my buddies and I decided they were strickly a bet against or nothing team the rest of the way ( hit nicely on Cleveland -1 last week) but will have to take a closer look into this one.

Always love your insight and GL  

They downright stink hunt and there is no way to put a shine on that. However they do have lots of young raw skill/talent on that team. They were playing some tough football earlier in the year like in the win over Pitt and what should have been a win over Atlanta but they gave up after some tough losses. That horrible late sideline pass for a pick 6 by Palmer in Atlanta when they had the game won really sucked the life out of him. What he is thinking with some of those atrocious and idiotic late game passes he makes I really have no clue. I personally think he's just a loser despite having raw talent. I hear you on the draft pick but that needs to change to. They make hideous draft selections. What they ever saw in Jamarcus Russel I will never know and now Rolondo McClain....The list goes on. Heyward Bey is another one that needs to change his attitude.
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Polar_Bear
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#21
Posted: 12/4/2012 12:55:12 PM
smallbet...

baggy...Seems like a pretty sharp total
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Polar_Bear
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#22
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:01:15 PM
 A couple of other things that I forgot to include into that 1 am writeup with typos and all.

One thing you can do is take the ball away from the Broncos as they sit at -11 in the turnover ration which is a concern or should be to anyone giving away 10 points.

This game is also sandwiched in between the Broncos clinching the AFC West Title and a big showdown in Baltimore in Week 15, which will go along way in determining  home field seeding which is very important to both the Broncos and Ravens success. It is also an outside shot at a first round bye so that is a big game coming up.


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#23
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:04:10 PM
Def. like your rationale all around... Truly BOL 
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Polar_Bear
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#24
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:08:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by InVegas:

The Raiders will definitely cover this game, their last game dictates that selection.... Not so sure about the over. The two don't coincide with one another because the Raiders will not score a ton of points.They will run the ball - because they have to - and John Fox will be content to take field goals on an opponent's field.

I see a similar game Denver had against the Chiefs. If the Raiders keep it close, the game cannot go over. That's just simple logic.

Raiders + 10.5 & Under 49.5

Terrelle Pryor and quite possibly Matt Leinhart will both be auditioning in this game. Pryor almost for certain and they will be taking his leash off as it's all about seeing about next year now which they fully admit so keep that in mind. This could easily be a 27-23 football game. McFadden was leading the NFL in receptions out of the back field when he got hurt so he adds to the passing game more than the running game and Goodson is a pure big play threat. Those two coming back also frees up Reece more as a slot receiver where he is very dangerous. I do not see this being played like that Chiefs game but hey it would not be the first time I have been wrong. GL with the Under

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#25
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:10:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kwtook2thehouse:

nickspicksdaily.com totally free and he has picked 75% winners over the past 7 days

1 of those picks being golden state warriors ml last night. 


ML!??? @ -690

come on man!

(and 3 out of the 4 highest ML on nfl sunday... NYG last night)
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