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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Survivor Pool....very difficult week....need advice
Splooge send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 11/29/2012 4:30:46 PM
this is an enormous pool and we are down to final 13 entries...  i'm in a tough place this week. Here is what I can't use this week:

   
Week
1- Houston
2- NYG
3- Dallas
4- GB
5- SF
6- Atl
7- NE
8- Chi
9- SD
10- Pgh
11- Denver
12- Cincy

Advice most appreciated!  
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#2
Posted: 11/29/2012 5:13:32 PM
Panthers
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#3
Posted: 11/29/2012 5:18:27 PM
Jets
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erjaq
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#4
Posted: 11/29/2012 5:42:06 PM
My survivor plays are quite similar to yours for the year, except I've yet to use the Giants.  So I'm in basically the same situation as you, and I'll be taking the Jets.  I posted this in another forum:

----------------------------

OK, dudes -- I think I'm going to take the New York Jets in my survivor pool. I'm posting here so that you can talk me out of it, or at least try. It is of course a play against Arizona more than a play on the Jets, but I think I like it better than Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit/Indianapolis, Cleveland, Baltimore, or the Giants. Realistically those are my only other options.

The Jets have lost:

at Pittsburgh (27-10)
home vs. San Francisco (34-0)
home vs. Houston (23-17, Jets were in it until the end)
at New England (29-26; Jets should have won, actually)
home vs. Miami (30-9)
at Seattle (28-7)
home vs. New England (49-19)

Of those only the home game vs. the Dolphins is one that they perhaps should have won (although the Dolphins were in the midst of a decent run), but the others are all against solid teams who are all more or less guaranteed to make the playoffs (maybe not Seattle, but we all know Seattle is tough to beat at home). They looked very terrible in some of those games, I'll admit...in fact as bad as any team could possibly look. I'm thinking of last week, or the 34-0 shutout against SF.

But they won the following

home vs. Buffalo (48-28)
at Miami (23-20)
home vs. Indianapolis (35-9; by far their best game of the year)
at St. Louis (27-13; perhaps their 2nd best)

So it kinda seems like they beat the mediocre/bad teams (although Indy is on the verge of being better than mediocre) and lose to the good ones. Arizona is most certainly a bad team, having lost 7 in a row and playing a nobody at QB, and 5 nobodies on the offensive line. The Jets' D is not what it once was, but they should have a relatively easy time against the Cardinals alleged offense. The Jets are scoring 20.1 points per game, whereas Arizona is at a meager 16.4 for the year, and just 12.7 during their current 7-game losing streak. I'd expect the Cards to land somewhere in that range this Sunday.
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#5
Posted: 11/29/2012 6:55:20 PM
good stuff erjaq....thanks for input fellas yeh Jets were my initial lean as well and doing everything to talk myself out of it but nowhere else to go.  Carolina yeh but against cardinal rule in survivor w/ road teams but chiefs are really bad...so far it's the Jets 
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#6
Posted: 11/29/2012 7:05:29 PM
Baltimore ... especially without Ben. I like the Jets this week too but they can be so untrustworthy.
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#7
Posted: 11/29/2012 10:30:23 PM
hey splooge. hanging in there in both my survivor pools, too.  

3/110 in one.

9/60 in the other.  

Pretty much out of men here, too.  think the Lions rate out a little higher than Jets.  But only slightly.  Indy bad on road v. good teams especially good teams that can pass.  detroit is a much better squad. if linley (sp) is starting for az, hard to fault a play against here.  though beanie wells being back helps the cards.  but the effort they put forward v. rams at home was pathetic and that qb is a tomato can.  i haven't decided which to play yet.  watching line moves and qb situation very closely.  may not decide til sunday morning.
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erjaq
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#8
Posted: 11/30/2012 12:18:03 PM
My pool is down to 30 out of 818 at the start.  I still have Baltimore, and if I knew for certain that Rapistburger was not going to play, I'd consider them, too.  But I just have a hunch that he'll make his way onto the field, somehow.  Don't know if he'll be effective, but if ever there was a week to risk further injury, it would be this one.  The Steelers are in pretty bad shape if they lose this week, and they're playing their archrival, to whom they just lost 2 weeks ago.

I like Detroit too, but they seem to have a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and their opponent is far superior to the Jets' opponent this week.  The Clots have not been as good on the road for sure, losing badly to the Bears, Jets and Patriots, but all those games were outside, and this one is in a dome which could be at least a little bit more comfortable/familiar for them.  At the end of a close game I'd rather be rooting for Ryan Lindley to screw up than Andrew Luck.

A few weeks ago I was pretty sure I'd take the Bills this week, but the Jaguars are a different team with Henne at QB.  He's managed 7 TD passes in less than 2 games when Gabbert only managed 9 TDs in the first 9+ games.  I don't love Henne, but it's starting to look like Gabbert was just completely worthless, and with even decent QB play the Jaguars are considerably more competitive than before.  Even with Gabbert they were better on the road than at home, for whatever reason.

Anyway, I'm going with the Jets, but I don't feel great about it.  Best of luck to all of us.
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#9
Posted: 11/30/2012 4:25:24 PM
Tom brady
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Splooge send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#10
Posted: 11/30/2012 5:21:08 PM
alax--did not even consider Baltimore this week  w/ Big Ben out this week and next & supposedly going to play final 3 games...now on the fence between Jets and Ravens. Thx for input

skip--i have a hard time backing Lions w/ their hard luck losses this year.  On paper they are so damn talented then they find ways to lose.  Indy so bad on road but in dome they may play better. Lions scare the garbage out of me skip...leaning hard Balty right now w/ Jets second.  Gotta go against one of those 2 tomato cans

erjaq-agree w/ everything you say but w/ Balt as an option i'm now on fence.  I don't know how Pgh can win this game w/ out Ben.  I know they are a desperate group right now but for some reason gun to my head right now i'm leaning Ravens somebody give me a reason it's the wrong play so I can talk myself out of it.....again!!
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#11
Posted: 11/30/2012 5:36:10 PM
another strong reason to use Baltimore this week is the fact 11 of the 13 entries have used Baltimore already leaving them w/ Jets or Detroit. 1 or 2 upsets could take out most if not the whole field.....why is Baltimore not the play here w/ out Ben they are 9 pt favorites?? 
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#12
Posted: 11/30/2012 5:48:53 PM
Definetly gotta go with Balty this week without question
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#13
Posted: 12/1/2012 2:20:27 AM
If I had Balt.  I'd play Balt.  as much as I think they suck.  Given the choice between Stafford and Sanchez...well, you get the idea.  Plus, as now 5 pt faves, Lions work out to a winner about 69% of the time. The Jets, less.  I go with the math 100% of the time.
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#14
Posted: 12/1/2012 2:30:36 AM
baltimore :)
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#15
Posted: 12/2/2012 5:40:09 PM
detroit 

tough ending to the season there....
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erjaq
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#16
Posted: 12/2/2012 9:02:47 PM
What did you end up doing, splooge?  I snuck by with the Jets, but only barely.  Somehow they were the most popular pick in my pool, with only 1 person each on Baltimore and Detroit.  I'd hoped for more to get eliminated in those two, but oh well.  4 on SF, so we're down to 24 now.
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#17
Posted: 12/5/2012 11:22:58 AM
skip rough one for both of us....erjaq went w/ Baltimore it was the right call for me especially w/ everyone having used Baltimore already...game made me sick Steelers played all out desperados and I was on wrong end of it.....pool went from 13 to 4 this week.  Only 2 people had Jets rest of picks scattered.  So it cost me having Ravens left to use.  Could have been a great situation....i use Ravens earlier in year I go w/ Jets this week and sneak on through......funny pool it is. Congrats on moving on! 
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#18
Posted: 12/5/2012 11:36:12 AM
Take Minnesota
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#19
Posted: 12/5/2012 4:51:45 PM
I'm thinking seahawks or Bucs
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#20
Posted: 12/5/2012 5:00:32 PM
look at seattle...great home record. AZ is on the road 2 weeks in a row, offensively challenged vs a good defense. seattle would be my play.  GL to you whatever you do.
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