Fader Picks -- Week 13

Last week:  7-8-1, Overall:  86-73-4 (54%)

No edge this week in the home/away, fav/dog splits looking at Week 13's in the past.  Home teams used to be better the week after Thanksgiving, but the past four years have been 10-6, 7-9, 10-6, and 5-11.  So, time for me to actually do a little handicapping:

Thursday (My picks on the first game of the week have been 4-8 this year, which means I've been a lot better on Sundays, so no confidence in this pick):

NO +3.5 (Expecting a close game, and I like having the hook)

Sunday

JAX +6.0 (Chad Henne ain't bad)
CHI -3.5 (Don't like the vibe out of SEA right now, and the Bears look good with Cutler back)
DET -4.5 (Indy has been bad on the road, and DET has gotten too much bad press this week, kind of like NYJ before they went to STL)
GB -9.0 (GB makes up for that embarrassment against NYG)
HOU -6.0 (Enough of the close games, says HOU)
CAR -3.0 (PHI made CAR look good, so KC should make CAR look even better)
SF -7.0 (Payback for the tie earlier in the season)
MIA +7.5 (NE falls back to earth this week, and the game is close)
NYJ -4.5 (Like DET, the Jets will be motivated this week to not be an embarrassment again)
TB +7.0 (Hey, DEN, TB isn't KC or SD)
CLE PK (The Browns defense is decent, while OAK is a mess right now)
CIN -1.5 (SD comes out flat after last week's epic loss to BAL)
BAL/PIT -- no line right now, but hard to see BAL losing that one; I'll post an update once there is a line
PHI +10.0 (PHI has only beaten the spread once this season.  That just doesn't happen.  Look for them to at least cover the spread.)

Monday

NYG -2.5 (The Giants continue where they left off against GB.  WAS is only 6-5 against the spread, but ESPN would make you think they are 11-0)

Good luck to all!

Good luck this week

Good breakdown of the games, hope it is lucky 13 for you.

Locked in GB at -8.5 instead of -9.0; CIN at -2.0 instead of -1.5.  Still no line on BAL/PIT.

Again, my pick tonight is NO +3.5.  Expecting a close game.

Thanks to an unlikely 5 interceptions by Brees, my NO pick went down in flames on Thursday.



OK, some updates on today's picks:

CAR/KC:  With the tragedy in KC, anything can happen here, but for scoring my picks, I'm sticking with what I posted above.

CLE/OK:  I was able to lock in CLE as a PK, and I'll score my pick that way, although CLE is now a 2.5-pt favorite.

PIT/BAL:  BAL -7.5 is my pick, because they are the home team.  They know how to score at home.

SEA/CHI:  I've really like SEA this year, but I picked CHI for today.  A lot of love for SEA out there today, though.

Good luck to all!

All the late game heroics went against me in the early games.

Winners: GB, HOU, MIA
Losers: NO, JAX, CHI, DET, CAR, SF.

You got lucky on Miami too. 

Yes, I did.

PHI beats the spread with the Moose of the Year!

That gets me to a pathetic 6-9 for the week, with NYG -2.5 on Monday.

Last minute heroics today ATS:  SEA, STL, IND, MIA, PHI.  Wow.