+3 at +105 versus +3.5 at -115

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: +3 at +105 versus +3.5 at -115
Snake30 PM Snake30
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Posted: 11/20/2012 1:19:04 AM

Can anyone answer this question with pure stats?

Last night I took the Steelers. Had the option of +3 +105, or +3.5 -115. So, risk 100 for 105 first way, and risk 100 for 87 the 2nd way. I opted for the +3 +105, and of course I pushed.

My belief is that in the long run taking the +105 will be more profitable. To make up for the lost 87, I'd need to win 5 times with the same scenario(5x18=90, which makes up for the lost 87). So, 1/6 of the time(16.666%) a push instead of win would still be profitable for me in the long run, as the 5 wins would give me an extra $3. 

Does anyone have historical data for the outcomes on games where the closing line was between 2.5-3.5? How many of these games ended with the exact difference of 3?

Even if it's 25%(which seems high), taking the +105 would seem correct, as probability dictates that the team I wagered on would win half of the time, thus rendering only 12.5% of the time I would push instead of win.

If I was making a major, one time wager, then I'd definitely buy the extra half off the 3, But, grinding with a normal play, I think the +105 is the correct move.

Any help, backed by facts would be greatly appreciated.

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 11/20/2012 1:30:37 AM

I think you should also seek out if there is a difference in that situation when the total is 48 than when the total is 35.

And if that half point is worth the same in those 2 scenarios.

Snake30 PM Snake30
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Posted: 11/20/2012 1:37:05 AM

Good point. Last night's game definitely had a greater chance of landing on 3 with the low total and history of those teams playing 3 point games.

I'd like to know, in general though, how many games end with a 3 point difference. I know it is much higher in NFL than NCAA, but no idea what the % is.

JDubs800 PM JDubs800
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Posted: 11/20/2012 1:37:53 AM
To me, a no-brainer. I usually always take the 3, I don't like playing any halve points, period.
Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 11/20/2012 1:46:24 AM
14.5% of all NFL games end in 3 point margin.
Snake30 PM Snake30
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Posted: 11/20/2012 1:50:20 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

14.5% of all NFL games end in 3 point margin.

What is your source? And how many years does it go back?

Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 11/20/2012 2:45:25 AM

I have an NFL handicapping book that gives all the percentages on margin of victory as well as totals.

This percentage was from 1986-1993. The author does state that when the 2 point conversion was added in 1994, that this was not enough to have any significant affect on scoring margins.

The book was copyrighted in 1997, so you can safely count on 1986-1997 that the 14.5% is correct. You could go back and research it from 1997 to 2012 to see what percentage is for that period.

Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:02:34 AM

I just did this years games so far for haha's. In 159 games played, 20 have been decided by 3 points, so 12.5 %.

I'd say these percentages i have will stand the test of time,lol

Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:15:48 AM
Of those 20 games with a margin of victory this year of 3 points,8 games had spreads of 2.5-3.5.
Snake30 PM Snake30
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Posted: 11/20/2012 2:17:58 PM

Wow! You even did homework.

Greatly appreciated Plisskin(is that a Snake from Escape from NY reference?)

According to your research then, my hypothesis seems to be accurate. I'll continue to take the positive vig rather than the extra half. Thanks.

Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 11/20/2012 7:18:41 PM

Yeah,i was bored late last nite so i did this year,lol.

Yes, my freinds call me ssssnake

mngambler PM mngambler
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Posted: 11/20/2012 9:41:01 PM
I always find this topic interesting and based on experience and assuming your following some type of BR mgmt. its definitely best to stand at 3 and take + $...obviously 3.5 is nice but over a large sample size paying upwards of 20-30cents on each wager to do it is not in your best interest.  Funny thing when a lot of guys have a "game of the year" wager and 10 units on the line your mind always wants to buy the hook which becomes much pricier but you think of it as insurance when in most cases you should just stick with capping ability and gut instincts and play the line as it stands
Brillo18 PM Brillo18
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Posted: 11/21/2012 1:36:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

I think you should also seek out if there is a difference in that situation when the total is 48 than when the total is 35.

And if that half point is worth the same in those 2 scenarios.


Great point here vanzack.. Most people overlook this even though its pretty much the best way to answer your question 
EastOakland PM EastOakland
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Posted: 11/21/2012 3:13:52 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JDubs800:

To me, a no-brainer. I usually always take the 3, I don't like playing any halve points, period.

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