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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Marketwatch week 12
Gordon Gekko
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#1
Posted: 11/19/2012 5:28:52 PM

30-19 Overall (61%), 3-0 team/player props

Teasers: 14-14 +9.8 units

EARLY BUYS

OVER WASH/DALLAS 46.5

will add later..

 

 

 

 

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Gordon Gekko
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#2
Posted: 11/19/2012 5:40:42 PM

Added Play:

SF -4 

Not happy at this number but still feel its a solid buy at this point with a top rated defense and a solid ranked offense.  If you compare both defenses and say its a squash, ok who's the better offense.  With Cutler in there, it would be a toss up, but I feel SF has a better back up and can make more plays with his feet.  Many cappers on under as expected and may be a solid buy but both teams force turnovers and with a small number up, I'll wait for better buy options.  No teasers on any point for this game. 

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Gordon Gekko
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#3
Posted: 11/19/2012 9:30:59 PM

Added Play:

Over Buffalo/Indy 52:

 and may add when/if it drops..

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MRQBALL
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#4
Posted: 11/20/2012 7:54:13 AM
Hello Gordon  whats your thoughts on the Utah St vs Idaho game. I was thinking of going real heavy on Idaho+39, would love your imput.
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Gordon Gekko
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#5
Posted: 11/20/2012 9:27:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

Added Play:

SF -4 

Not happy at this number but still feel its a solid buy at this point with a top rated defense and a solid ranked offense.  If you compare both defenses and say its a squash, ok who's the better offense.  With Cutler in there, it would be a toss up, but I feel SF has a better back up and can make more plays with his feet.  Many cappers on under as expected and may be a solid buy but both teams force turnovers and with a small number up, I'll wait for better buy options.  No teasers on any point for this game. 

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#6
Posted: 11/20/2012 9:28:09 AM
wish they were all that easy
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Gordon Gekko
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#7
Posted: 11/20/2012 7:47:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MRQBALL:

Hello Gordon  whats your thoughts on the Utah St vs Idaho game. I was thinking of going real heavy on Idaho+39, would love your imput.

I'd take the points in this game but realize that Idaho is not a good team but almost 40 is nice to have in your back pocket.  NCAA hasn't been too strong for me lately but overall have had a winning season.  I'm definitely down some return based on last years season.  However, I expect to get it back during the Bowl games in which I've had some success.  Besides that I see some other games on the board that may have more value.  GL with your play.

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#8
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:01:08 PM
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Gordon Gekko
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#9
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:27:03 PM

Washington @ Dallas :

Rankings:  SOS Washington 23 , Dallas 18

                    OFFENSE:  Washington 4th, Dallas 13th

                    DEFENSE:  Washington 23, Dallas 20th

         RED ZONE EFF (TD's only):  Washington 15, Dallas 25

       Penalties per game: Washington 31, Dallas 32

        RED ZONE DEF (TD's only):   Washington 21, Dallas 11

WASHINGTON:

Strengths:    #1 Rushing yards per game, #2 Rushing TD's per game, # 4 in yards per pass, # 4 in interceptions thrown per game, # 4 in yards per play and last but not least # 7 in TD's per game

Weaknesses:  # 26 in yards per game allowed, # 29 in Opp 3rd down completion percentage, Sack percentage # 26

DALLAS:

Strengths:  #3 in completion percentage, #7 passing yds per game

Weaknesses:  27th in red zone percentage, #26 in Int/thrown percentage, 29th in TO margin

Analysis: The outlook is that there must be some regression on the penalties called per game but will it come this week.  With a high percentage of completed passes for Dallas I expect them to move the ball pretty easily.  I expect the same with Washington, the diagnosis will be TD's or FG's within the red zone.  Bryant has made some big plays lately, and we know RGIII seems to produce 2 or 3 per game.  I think play action will hold the Dallas defenders opening some plays down the field.  Washington's pass rush is ok, but should give him some time to throw.  When he has time, he's good, when he doesn't he's bad.  The outlook is that the scoring plays should be there in the end, the conversion will be the outlaying factor. 

Market Analysis: opened at 46 and pushed over the key number 47 and currently trading in the 48's.  I think the Networks are dreaming for a high scoring game between two arch rivals with a big matchup between both. 

Injuries:  Murray may be back...which should help big play potential. 

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#10
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:48:39 PM
 WHATS YOUR THOUGHTS ABOUT 1'S TEAM TOTAL I THINK THIS 1 GETS TO  50 OR BETTER
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Gordon Gekko
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#11
Posted: 11/20/2012 9:00:56 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ac_bum:

 WHATS YOUR THOUGHTS ABOUT 1'S TEAM TOTAL I THINK THIS 1 GETS TO  50 OR BETTER

I haven't looked at team totals yet, but will..and get back when they flatten out. 

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#12
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:15:19 AM

Thanks Gordon for your imput  

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Gordon Gekko
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#13
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:16:38 PM

In my opinion these are some tight lines right now, however expect the betting public to move them into possible plays as usual.  I expect the favorites to be bet on Turkey Day, however I like the Jets plus the points in this situation.  Gronkowski is a major factor and huge loss for the Patriots.  Not only on receiving the ball but for the blocking offense.  He's a beast in the red zone and this must be accounted for .  The 8 they are giving right now is a joke.  I'm a die hard Patriots fan, but are you kidding me with 8.  I don't think this topped out yet as the public may push this further.  VORP for Gronk is one of the higher in league going back to the playoff games in which he didn't play or played hurt.  Schianco can catch and has that ability but blocking is a key.  Therefore, a play on the under may be also necessary for taking the books money.  Just my opinion..

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#14
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:44:47 PM
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Gordon Gekko
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#15
Posted: 11/22/2012 1:03:43 PM

Happy Turkey Day:  will be back with a play for 4:00/7:00

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#16
Posted: 11/22/2012 1:07:56 PM
Happy Thanksgiving Gordon
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Gordon Gekko
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#17
Posted: 11/22/2012 6:47:25 PM

Added Play: 

UNDER PATS/NY JETS 48.5

As a diehard Pats fan, the loss of Gronkowski should be magnified and yet the oddsmakers feel the Pats have too many weapons.  Gronkowski is one of the top 5 playmakers inside the Red Zone and a must target for Mr. Brady.  He eats up space and has nice soft hands for touchpasses and passes thrown with high velocity.  Schianco is a good reserve but hasn't played a major role of this magnitude on this stage for a long time.  He isn't the blocker that Gronk is.  The Jets defense isn't a great ground attack defense, so look for some time consuming drives from both teams.  Jets would definitely like this one to be a defensive battle.  This is there season for the most part and based on there schedule, a win tonight and I belive they make the playoffs.  Playoffs, yes, I said it. 

They are pricing the Patriots offense for perfection and when you lose your QUEEN in a chess game there is no way that you can be as efficient. 

UNDER is my play

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Gordon Gekko
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#18
Posted: 11/22/2012 9:04:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

30-19 Overall (61%), 3-0 team/player props

Teasers: 14-14 +9.8 units

EARLY BUYS

OVER WASH/DALLAS 46.5

will add later..

 

 

 

 

Thats a nice 2-0 start for the week with under Pats pending and will be on over Bills/Indy as well as 1Monster tease

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Gordon Gekko
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#19
Posted: 11/25/2012 8:55:06 AM

Added Plays:

Tampa Bay +1.5

Over Buffalo/Indy 51

Teasers: 

2 unit  Tampa Bay +7.5/Cleveland+8

1 unit 10 pt Tampa Bay 11.5/Cleveland 12/Jaxsonville +14

1 unit 10 pt Buffalo +13/Cincinatti +.5/ San Fran +9

2/3.6  Tampa Bay +7.5/Buffalo+9/Cinc -2.5

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Gordon Gekko
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#20
Posted: 11/25/2012 10:31:10 AM

Added Play:

1/1.8 6 pt teaser:  Chicago pk/St.Louis+7.5/Tampa Bay+1.5

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#21
Posted: 11/25/2012 10:32:41 AM
GL GORDO
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Gordon Gekko
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#22
Posted: 11/25/2012 8:04:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

Added Plays:

Tampa Bay +1.5         

Over Buffalo/Indy 51      

Teasers: 

2 unit  Tampa Bay +7.5/Cleveland+8  

1 unit 10 pt Tampa Bay 11.5/Cleveland 12/Jaxsonville +14

1 unit 10 pt Buffalo +13/Cincinatti +.5/ San Fran +9

2/3.6  Tampa Bay +7.5/Buffalo+9/Cinc -2.5

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Gordon Gekko
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#23
Posted: 11/25/2012 8:06:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

Added Play:

1/1.8 6 pt teaser:  Chicago pk/St.Louis+7.5/Tampa Bay+1.5

1-1 Straight plays

5-0 teasers for +9.4 units

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#24
Posted: 11/25/2012 8:07:54 PM
Excellent day GG. Any leans for the late game?
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Gordon Gekko
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#25
Posted: 11/25/2012 8:09:36 PM

Added Play:

Teaser 6.5 pts   GBay +7.5/Carolina +3.5

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