The Broncos have played one of the toughest schedules in football. Against lesser competition, they've looked elite. Against other teams in the top 10, they've had slow starts but competed in all of the games. They're a 2-3 team at the moment, but they have advanced stats that would suggest they're playoff-caliber. In fact, despite their low yards-per-play rating, they have one of the most efficient and one of the most productive offenses in the NFL. The Chargers on the other hand have played the easiest schedule in the league - yet still they're just a 3-2 team. Don't let their 24.8 ppg average fool you - this number is -4.4 points less than the average of what their opponents give up (29.2 ppg). This means they actually rank #28 in scoring, not #13. I see similar discrepancies when I look at the rest of their advanced efficiency stats. On the surface they look like a team that ranks just outside the top 10 in total offense and about average defensively. My advanced analytics show they're a bottom 5 offense with an average defense. All said and done, the Broncos are ranked #8 in my cumulative database, while the Chargers are a modest #20. I have Denver projected to win by 4 points and it seems like both the public and the sharps agree as the line steamed immediately off +3 and has settled all the way down at +1 and I even saw PK and -1 a few times. Other than the Chargers owning home field on prime time, I see a huge offensive advantage on paper and I think that will be the difference tonight. Broncos by a field goal.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%)-0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u
'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u
'11-12 MLB:130-86 (60.2%) +38.27u
'11-12 MLB-P:1-1 (50.0%) +0.35u
'12-13 NFL: 17-7 (70.8%) +14.75u
8:40 EST - Denver Broncos +2.5 (-110)
The Broncos have played one of the toughest schedules in football. Against lesser competition, they've looked elite. Against other teams in the top 10, they've had slow starts but competed in all of the games. They're a 2-3 team at the moment, but they have advanced stats that would suggest they're playoff-caliber. In fact, despite their low yards-per-play rating, they have one of the most efficient and one of the most productive offenses in the NFL. The Chargers on the other hand have played the easiest schedule in the league - yet still they're just a 3-2 team. Don't let their 24.8 ppg average fool you - this number is -4.4 points less than the average of what their opponents give up (29.2 ppg). This means they actually rank #28 in scoring, not #13. I see similar discrepancies when I look at the rest of their advanced efficiency stats. On the surface they look like a team that ranks just outside the top 10 in total offense and about average defensively. My advanced analytics show they're a bottom 5 offense with an average defense. All said and done, the Broncos are ranked #8 in my cumulative database, while the Chargers are a modest #20. I have Denver projected to win by 4 points and it seems like both the public and the sharps agree as the line steamed immediately off +3 and has settled all the way down at +1 and I even saw PK and -1 a few times. Other than the Chargers owning home field on prime time, I see a huge offensive advantage on paper and I think that will be the difference tonight. Broncos by a field goal.
Your work is sick man. major props. I def agree with you that denver is the better team but i think the matchups favor san diego big time. i made a thread about my side and went into quite a bit of detail if you feel like checking it out.
Read it. Wasn't happy to see something so well thought-out going against the side I chose.
But hey, there's two sides to every wager.. I wish you all the best tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by swolesbee:
Your work is sick man. major props. I def agree with you that denver is the better team but i think the matchups favor san diego big time. i made a thread about my side and went into quite a bit of detail if you feel like checking it out.
Read it. Wasn't happy to see something so well thought-out going against the side I chose.
But hey, there's two sides to every wager.. I wish you all the best tonight.
I posted in my weekly breakdown sheets thread that I locked this play in on Tuesday or Wednesday earlier this week. Posting now the line I took, but with my numbers showing a 4 point Bronco victory I would still take them at +1 or even PK probably.
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Quote Originally Posted by mmsiv:
I cant imagine you got +2.5 today, correct?
I with you at +1 and PK.
I posted in my weekly breakdown sheets thread that I locked this play in on Tuesday or Wednesday earlier this week. Posting now the line I took, but with my numbers showing a 4 point Bronco victory I would still take them at +1 or even PK probably.
Hey si1ly, first time follower and added you as friend. It seems you do some awesome detailed work and I've only been following your threads last few days. Just wondering if you have an old post/thread about how to use your breakdown sheets. Is it similar to Accuscore, or is it just a different approach all together. It doesn't seem that you play each game that you have sheets on since your '12-'13 is only 24 games total, but seems that you're doing well at 70+% wins. Just wondering if you could PM me more info to read. I like your approach to these games. I'm followin on Denver as well. GL
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Hey si1ly, first time follower and added you as friend. It seems you do some awesome detailed work and I've only been following your threads last few days. Just wondering if you have an old post/thread about how to use your breakdown sheets. Is it similar to Accuscore, or is it just a different approach all together. It doesn't seem that you play each game that you have sheets on since your '12-'13 is only 24 games total, but seems that you're doing well at 70+% wins. Just wondering if you could PM me more info to read. I like your approach to these games. I'm followin on Denver as well. GL
Hey si1ly, first time follower and added you as friend. It seems you do some awesome detailed work and I've only been following your threads last few days. Just wondering if you have an old post/thread about how to use your breakdown sheets. Is it similar to Accuscore, or is it just a different approach all together. It doesn't seem that you play each game that you have sheets on since your '12-'13 is only 24 games total, but seems that you're doing well at 70+% wins. Just wondering if you could PM me more info to read. I like your approach to these games. I'm followin on Denver as well. GL
Here's a very long story as short as I can make it:
I am convinced that the best way to profit at sports gambling is to exclusively bet on games where there is 'value' between the true winning probability and margin of victory (W% and MOV are highly correlated variables historically) and the vegas moneyline and spread.
My models take advanced stats and with the help of logisitc regression modeling, I am able to determine what the projected winning percentage and margin of victory for a game using specific advanced data sets. For the NFL, these datasets are at the top of the breakdown sheet and have to do with score, yards/point, yards/play, yards/att, yards/rush as well as cumulative power ranking.
In the NFL, limited data sample size is a constant battle. Right now, teams have only played 150 minutes on both sides of the ball against only 5 different teams. Hardly a significant set to draw concrete conclusions from and since the level of competition can be drastically different from team to team using non-normalized data can be very misleading.
The Relative Performance Index (RPI), is an advanced way of looking at the score and efficincy stats I mentioned above. These numbers are normalized to the level of competition.
For example, the Chargers score 24.8 points per game which is the #13 most in the NFL. However, the 4 opponents that they've played combined average giving up 29.2 points per game. Thus the Chargers are performing -4.4 points less than what would be expected. This value ranks #28 in the league. So while it seems on the surface that the Chargers are a high scoring team, in reality, their offense is under-performing by an average of 4.4 points per game. That's a big difference that can only be determined by normalizing the level of competition.
My models use these RPI values to predict the true winning percentage - which is converted into a moneyline - and a margin of victory - which is converted into a spread. I compare these numbers to what Vegas puts out to determine which lines have 'value' and which lines are sharp. I don't bet on any sharp lines, because the house has all the advantage and I'll end up losing the juice in the long run - i.e. the commission that sportsbooks charge you to place action with them.
Additionally, I filter these 'value' lines even further down to a select few games that fit my risk profile and other situational variables that mathematical models can't account for. I do this for the NBA, the MLB and the NFL.
0
Quote Originally Posted by cjonesin20:
Hey si1ly, first time follower and added you as friend. It seems you do some awesome detailed work and I've only been following your threads last few days. Just wondering if you have an old post/thread about how to use your breakdown sheets. Is it similar to Accuscore, or is it just a different approach all together. It doesn't seem that you play each game that you have sheets on since your '12-'13 is only 24 games total, but seems that you're doing well at 70+% wins. Just wondering if you could PM me more info to read. I like your approach to these games. I'm followin on Denver as well. GL
Here's a very long story as short as I can make it:
I am convinced that the best way to profit at sports gambling is to exclusively bet on games where there is 'value' between the true winning probability and margin of victory (W% and MOV are highly correlated variables historically) and the vegas moneyline and spread.
My models take advanced stats and with the help of logisitc regression modeling, I am able to determine what the projected winning percentage and margin of victory for a game using specific advanced data sets. For the NFL, these datasets are at the top of the breakdown sheet and have to do with score, yards/point, yards/play, yards/att, yards/rush as well as cumulative power ranking.
In the NFL, limited data sample size is a constant battle. Right now, teams have only played 150 minutes on both sides of the ball against only 5 different teams. Hardly a significant set to draw concrete conclusions from and since the level of competition can be drastically different from team to team using non-normalized data can be very misleading.
The Relative Performance Index (RPI), is an advanced way of looking at the score and efficincy stats I mentioned above. These numbers are normalized to the level of competition.
For example, the Chargers score 24.8 points per game which is the #13 most in the NFL. However, the 4 opponents that they've played combined average giving up 29.2 points per game. Thus the Chargers are performing -4.4 points less than what would be expected. This value ranks #28 in the league. So while it seems on the surface that the Chargers are a high scoring team, in reality, their offense is under-performing by an average of 4.4 points per game. That's a big difference that can only be determined by normalizing the level of competition.
My models use these RPI values to predict the true winning percentage - which is converted into a moneyline - and a margin of victory - which is converted into a spread. I compare these numbers to what Vegas puts out to determine which lines have 'value' and which lines are sharp. I don't bet on any sharp lines, because the house has all the advantage and I'll end up losing the juice in the long run - i.e. the commission that sportsbooks charge you to place action with them.
Additionally, I filter these 'value' lines even further down to a select few games that fit my risk profile and other situational variables that mathematical models can't account for. I do this for the NBA, the MLB and the NFL.
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